Revised Predictions...?

[Gustaf]

I don't see hwo you can say MN isn't trending GOP, it went from being one of the most liberal states in the union (the only state to go dem in 1984), to being a near tossup this year.  If bush does win Minnesota, it will be the first time that has happened since Nixon won it in 1972.

It eas Mondale home state

I just said that.

when I post it wasn't there. but you beat me

Just like I beat you on the polls!

[ilikeverin]

I don't see hwo you can say MN isn't trending GOP, it went from being one of the most liberal states in the union (the only state to go dem in 1984), to being a near tossup this year.  If bush does win Minnesota, it will be the first time that has happened since Nixon won it in 1972.

It's moving right, which isn't saying much.  It's just going centrist.  I don't see any signs of it moving to the right site of the spectrum


DFL|-----------|-----------|GOP
       ^         ^ ^

It was at the left, it's now towards the middle.  I can't see it going any more right of the 3rd arrow, which, when crossed, would mean it's trending GOP.

[zachman]

Do you see Minnesota as going for Kerry or Bush, based on crossovers in your area, ilikeverin?

[ilikeverin]

Do you see Minnesota as going for Kerry or Bush, based on crossovers in your area, ilikeverin?

Kerry.  There are probably a few liberal Republicans here, and also disenfranchised Nader voters who now hate Bush with a vengeance!  (like me )

[zachman]

Will the Nader vote, vote for Nader or Kerry?

[ilikeverin]

Will the Nader vote, vote for Nader or Kerry?

Some diehards will vote for Nader, but the soccer moms (I saw quite a few of them at the Nader rally I went to!) will probably vote Kerry.

[zachman]

Influence them to vote for Kerry, we need to work to get out the vote.

[ilikeverin]

Influence them to vote for Kerry, we need to work to get out the vote.

Well, I didn't know them personally... just my mom

The rally was huge, though, so I couldn't see everyone.  The Target Center was getting pretty full...

[The Vorlon]

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Yes, I did change my map a bit, that would be why they are called "revised" predictions.

Bush has firmed up a lot in the underlying numbers this week, so I have taken it from a very narrow Kerry win to a very narrow Bush win...

There are realy about 10 states that are too close to call right now...

Next week, I'll likely change back...

Enjoy & have a great day!

[Gustaf]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yes, I did change my map a bit, that would be why they are called "revised" predictions.

Bush has firmed up a lot in the underlying numbers this week, so I have taken it from a very narrow Kerry win to a very narrow Bush win...

There are realy about 10 states that are too close to call right now...

Next week, I'll likely change back...

Enjoy & have a great day!

I was only kidding, I understand that you revised your map, etc. I am going to bed, so good night...

[zachman]

Here  are  the only possible combinations I find likely for the upper midwest:

Bush wins all 3 (Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota)
Bush wins Minnesota and Iowa
Kerry wins Wisconsin and Minnesota
Kerry wins all three


Iowa has the highest likelihood of voting for Bush, and Wisconsin has the least. I think Vorlon's prediction of Iowa and Wisconsin for Bush and Minnesota for Kerry will not happen.

[12th Doctor]

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Ok, we agree on Iowa and New Mexico, we agree they lean ever so slightly to the GOP...  

I too also still have MInnesota leaning to the Dems, so we agree there as well..

I have Oregon as a toss up on my map.  

Yes Oregon has a very strong environmental movement, but they ALSO have a lot of (unemployed) forrestry workers.  Bush has been (semi) protectionist in this area during the softwood lumber dispute with Canada. - I think that will help Bush.

Other than Portland/Eugene Oregon is still pretty small town and rural (it does border Idaho...)  So I think Bush's Gay Marriage/Military/War/9-11 cards will play well in the non-Portland/Oregon areas..

Wisconsin is also interesesting.

The last so called "farm Bill" had burried amid it's $180 billion of waste a great deal of help for Wiscosin in terms of Dairy price supports etc, I think this may buy Bush enough votes...  Similar to Oregon/Iowas I think Bush gets a bit of a bump rural from Gay Marriage/Military/War/9-11

Your fundemental assumption, however, is that all Nader support will magically melt away and that all of it will go to Kerry.

Here is a link to an article, admittedly written by a green party person, that tracked Nader in the polls versus Gore during 2000, and it found that a drop in Nader support DID NOT correlate to a rise in Gore support...

http://prorev.com/green2000.htm

I haven't done any more than scan this article so I offer no firm opinion on it, but it is worth a look....

Here's something that you have to consider about PA and MN.  Older voters in both of these states treand heavily Democratic.  They are the New Deal generation,  never voted Republican in thier lives.  How many of these people have died since 2000?  Quite a few I'd be willing to bet.  In the mean time, young voters in both of these states treand heavily Republican.  That's bound to make a diffence in this election.

[Inmate Trump]

I was just watching CNN Headline News.  On the crawl at the bottom of the screen I saw that John Kerry, according to the AP, has official gotten enough delegates to be the nominee.  Beyond that, this story hasn't gotten any press coverage whatsoever that I've seen.  Now that Kerry won't be getting any more free, positive press coverage, he'll start fading in the polls.

Everybody's been saying that this is going to be a close race.  I still don't see it that way.  I think Bush could win by 8-10 points.

Wait a minute.... you were watching CNN?

[Ben.]

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Ok, we agree on Iowa and New Mexico, we agree they lean ever so slightly to the GOP...  

I too also still have MInnesota leaning to the Dems, so we agree there as well..

I have Oregon as a toss up on my map.  

Yes Oregon has a very strong environmental movement, but they ALSO have a lot of (unemployed) forrestry workers.  Bush has been (semi) protectionist in this area during the softwood lumber dispute with Canada. - I think that will help Bush.

Other than Portland/Eugene Oregon is still pretty small town and rural (it does border Idaho...)  So I think Bush's Gay Marriage/Military/War/9-11 cards will play well in the non-Portland/Oregon areas..

Wisconsin is also interesesting.

The last so called "farm Bill" had burried amid it's $180 billion of waste a great deal of help for Wiscosin in terms of Dairy price supports etc, I think this may buy Bush enough votes...  Similar to Oregon/Iowas I think Bush gets a bit of a bump rural from Gay Marriage/Military/War/9-11

Your fundemental assumption, however, is that all Nader support will magically melt away and that all of it will go to Kerry.

Here is a link to an article, admittedly written by a green party person, that tracked Nader in the polls versus Gore during 2000, and it found that a drop in Nader support DID NOT correlate to a rise in Gore support...

http://prorev.com/green2000.htm

I haven't done any more than scan this article so I offer no firm opinion on it, but it is worth a look....

Here's something that you have to consider about PA and MN.  Older voters in both of these states treand heavily Democratic.  They are the New Deal generation,  never voted Republican in thier lives.  How many of these people have died since 2000?  Quite a few I'd be willing to bet.  In the mean time, young voters in both of these states treand heavily Republican.  That's bound to make a diffence in this election.

I really don’t think that younger voters in either to these two states as a rule tend heavily towards the GOP if you look at the elected officials from both of these states (MN and PA) they are generally moderates from both party’s (Santorum and Wellstone being the exceptions)…as a rule I’d say that the DNC has an advantage amongst younger voters as a whole however amongst those who are actively involved in politics perhaps the GOP does have an advantage however I doubt it…. Sadly I cannot find any break down of either state’s recent voting to see how younger voters are actually voting but despite this I find it unlikely that the younger generation “trends heavily” towards the GOP in recent years it is true that the decline in the popularity of the GOP amongst younger voters has indeed been reversed however this does not translate into these voters as a whole trends strongly to the GOP…I find it more likely that in states such as PA, MI and MN the Dem vote in November will actually increase as blue-collar workers who have suffered under Bush and especially steel workers (who where a significant factor in Bush’s support in PA, OH, WV and MI) will vote for Kerry while many moderates who voted for Bush as a “compassionate conservative” may well vote for the Dems this time around and of course it is important not to forget that most (and I would imagine that it will be most) of the Nader Supporters from 2000 will further bolster Kerry by voting Dem this time around…so far from these states young populations tipping the advantage to the GOP I would imagine these states will return as even more strongly Dem than in 2000….

[Inmate Trump]

Here are my predictions for some of the close states:

Minnesota will be a dead heat again, but I'm predicting 2004 to be the last presidential election for the next few year to go Democrat.  Kerry wins, barely.  Kerry also wins Oregon, again barely, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin.

Bush wins Iowa, New Mexico, Florida, and Ohio.  I also think Bush will barely win Pennsylvania, but it'll be close.  I think Bush would lose Pa if Kerry (or someone else like him--Dean) was not the Dem nominee.

Everything depends on how quickly Bush can label Kerry as just another Massachusetts liberal.  Once he does that, and the public catches on to it, Kerry's numbers will drop.

[zachman]

Younger voters particularly the 25 and under strata are more democratic. This is not true in the bible belt, and the small isolated states out west.

I'm reading this article right now.
http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/99aug/9908genx2.htm

[Ben.]

Here are my predictions for some of the close states:

Minnesota will be a dead heat again, but I'm predicting 2004 to be the last presidential election for the next few year to go Democrat.  Kerry wins, barely.  Kerry also wins Oregon, again barely, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin.

Bush wins Iowa, New Mexico, Florida, and Ohio.  I also think Bush will barely win Pennsylvania, but it'll be close.  I think Bush would lose Pa if Kerry (or someone else like him--Dean) was not the Dem nominee.

Everything depends on how quickly Bush can label Kerry as just another Massachusetts liberal.  Once he does that, and the public catches on to it, Kerry's numbers will drop.

Didn’t the Republicans constantly try and tarr Clinton as a “Liberal”…hum…didn’t seem to work did it?...and remember that Clinton’s Platform in 1992 was fairly liberal http://gopher.udel.edu/htr/Psc105/Texts/demoplat.html#2 I think it unlikely that the old “liberal Democrat” slur will have little effect this time around as it is seen by many as something that no longer instils fear and dread in peoples hearts…I also think it highly unlikely that PA will swing to the GOP…check my past post for the reasons coz I just can’t be arsed to post them yet again but trust me come election night PA will go Dem even more solidly than it did in 2000…as for that matter will MI and expect an increase in the Dem vote in WV and OH…but the I’m biased as are you…maybe we should just leave prediction to the independents on the board but then again where would be the fun in that?... I  love bias…    

[12th Doctor]

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Ok, we agree on Iowa and New Mexico, we agree they lean ever so slightly to the GOP...  

I too also still have MInnesota leaning to the Dems, so we agree there as well..

I have Oregon as a toss up on my map.  

Yes Oregon has a very strong environmental movement, but they ALSO have a lot of (unemployed) forrestry workers.  Bush has been (semi) protectionist in this area during the softwood lumber dispute with Canada. - I think that will help Bush.

Other than Portland/Eugene Oregon is still pretty small town and rural (it does border Idaho...)  So I think Bush's Gay Marriage/Military/War/9-11 cards will play well in the non-Portland/Oregon areas..

Wisconsin is also interesesting.

The last so called "farm Bill" had burried amid it's $180 billion of waste a great deal of help for Wiscosin in terms of Dairy price supports etc, I think this may buy Bush enough votes...  Similar to Oregon/Iowas I think Bush gets a bit of a bump rural from Gay Marriage/Military/War/9-11

Your fundemental assumption, however, is that all Nader support will magically melt away and that all of it will go to Kerry.

Here is a link to an article, admittedly written by a green party person, that tracked Nader in the polls versus Gore during 2000, and it found that a drop in Nader support DID NOT correlate to a rise in Gore support...

http://prorev.com/green2000.htm

I haven't done any more than scan this article so I offer no firm opinion on it, but it is worth a look....

Here's something that you have to consider about PA and MN.  Older voters in both of these states treand heavily Democratic.  They are the New Deal generation,  never voted Republican in thier lives.  How many of these people have died since 2000?  Quite a few I'd be willing to bet.  In the mean time, young voters in both of these states treand heavily Republican.  That's bound to make a diffence in this election.

I really don’t think that younger voters in either to these two states as a rule tend heavily towards the GOP if you look at the elected officials from both of these states (MN and PA) they are generally moderates from both party’s (Santorum and Wellstone being the exceptions)…as a rule I’d say that the DNC has an advantage amongst younger voters as a whole however amongst those who are actively involved in politics perhaps the GOP does have an advantage however I doubt it…. Sadly I cannot find any break down of either state’s recent voting to see how younger voters are actually voting but despite this I find it unlikely that the younger generation “trends heavily” towards the GOP in recent years it is true that the decline in the popularity of the GOP amongst younger voters has indeed been reversed however this does not translate into these voters as a whole trends strongly to the GOP…I find it more likely that in states such as PA, MI and MN the Dem vote in November will actually increase as blue-collar workers who have suffered under Bush and especially steel workers (who where a significant factor in Bush’s support in PA, OH, WV and MI) will vote for Kerry while many moderates who voted for Bush as a “compassionate conservative” may well vote for the Dems this time around and of course it is important not to forget that most (and I would imagine that it will be most) of the Nader Supporters from 2000 will further bolster Kerry by voting Dem this time around…so far from these states young populations tipping the advantage to the GOP I would imagine these states will return as even more strongly Dem than in 2000….

According to the Almanac of American politics, voters between 30-45 voted 50%-46% for Bush.  That's heavily for PA.  Also, I know for a fact that since 2001 the Republicans have out registered Dems in this state by nearly 3-1,  I also believe that since motor voter was enacted in 1998 Republicans have out registered Dems by 2-1 over-all in the state.  Another possitive sign for Republicans in this state is that Gore only carried Catholics by a 50%-46% and the Democrat lead amoung that group i this state has been declining consideribly since 1976.  By comparison, New Dealers, currently the largest voting bloc in PA voted 60%-35% for Gore.  These people are dying off rapidly.

As for Minnesota, the self-destruction of the DFL has left the Democrats as lame ducks in large areas Minnesota.  Also, as the Almanac state 'If the major metro movement toward the Democrats in the 1990's so visible on the coasts was was less visible in Minnesota, the counter vailing rural movement toward Republicans was even more prominent.  The result is that Minnesota must been counted as very competitive in the next CLOSE presidential race'.  In the next CLOSE presidential race, MN must be counted as competitive.  This means that if Bush wins the PV by more than say, 3% chances are that he will win Minnesota and I would have to say that even if Bush losses the race, he still has a 40% chance of carrying Minnesota.  If Bush wins, he will win Minnesota.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Younger voters particularly the 25 and under strata are more democratic. This is not true in the bible belt, and the small isolated states out west.

I'm reading this article right now.
http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/99aug/9908genx2.htm

I see this in my school in the rare time we talk current events in SS.  Kids who go to church, almost all conservative (and have some of the more laughable things you'll ever hear to say), kids who dont go to church (like me) very liberal.  They don't know that, they just are.  

[zachman]

Kids with parents from an Ivy league school in my district have Republican parents. Kids who go on an excess of vacations, and go to Patriots games have Republican parents. I know that is not a fair litmus test, but here it is the educates versud the overwealthy.

[ilikeverin]

As for Minnesota, the self-destruction of the DFL has left the Democrats as lame ducks in large areas Minnesota.  Also, as the Almanac state 'If the major metro movement toward the Democrats in the 1990's so visible on the coasts was was less visible in Minnesota, the counter vailing rural movement toward Republicans was even more prominent.  The result is that Minnesota must been counted as very competitive in the next CLOSE presidential race'.  In the next CLOSE presidential race, MN must be counted as competitive.  This means that if Bush wins the PV by more than say, 3% chances are that he will win Minnesota and I would have to say that even if Bush losses the race, he still has a 40% chance of carrying Minnesota.  If Bush wins, he will win Minnesota.

The DFL is self-destructing?

That's news to me.

[zachman]

I find it so annoying that the major parties have made deals with other parties, and must still recognize themselves as still part of the farmers labor party. ND has the Democratic Non-Partisan League. I don't see how you can name a political party as a non-partisan league. Oh well, it hasn't had much success.

[12th Doctor]

As for Minnesota, the self-destruction of the DFL has left the Democrats as lame ducks in large areas Minnesota.  Also, as the Almanac state 'If the major metro movement toward the Democrats in the 1990's so visible on the coasts was was less visible in Minnesota, the counter vailing rural movement toward Republicans was even more prominent.  The result is that Minnesota must been counted as very competitive in the next CLOSE presidential race'.  In the next CLOSE presidential race, MN must be counted as competitive.  This means that if Bush wins the PV by more than say, 3% chances are that he will win Minnesota and I would have to say that even if Bush losses the race, he still has a 40% chance of carrying Minnesota.  If Bush wins, he will win Minnesota.

The DFL is self-destructing?

That's news to me.

Well then you must be the last to hear about it.

[muon2]

Has anybody changed any of their state predictions, and if so... why?

I last changed mine on 3/5 when Kerry became the presumptive nominee after Super Tuesday. I expect I'll wait until Kerry names his VP to update the map again.

Vorlon, I'm also fascinated that other than OR and WV, your new map matches my map of 3/5. I do agree with you on the possibility of IA and WI, but not MN going to Bush.

[The Vorlon]

Has anybody changed any of their state predictions, and if so... why?

I last changed mine on 3/5 when Kerry became the presumptive nominee after Super Tuesday. I expect I'll wait until Kerry names his VP to update the map again.

Vorlon, I'm also fascinated that other than OR and WV, your new map matches my map of 3/5. I do agree with you on the possibility of IA and WI, but not MN going to Bush.

Depending on your perspective.. it's either "great minds think alike" or "Fools rarely differ"..