10/31 Zogby, WP, Fox/OD Tied, BOT Bush+1, TIPP Bush+5, Movement??

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It's the weekend. Kerry polls well on weekends.

As I posted in another thread, this is not supported by the data.  Here are the average Bush leads in the tracking polls by day of the week over the last thirty days (updated since I posted yesterday):

Saturday      2.26
Sunday            2.60
Monday           2.00
Tuesday           1.93
Wednesday    1.22
Thursday      2.23
Friday              2.13

Bush does best on Sunday and worst on Wednesday, suggesting he polls well on the weekends and badly from Sunday-Tuesday.

Maybe I'm making a mistake, but it looks to me like your data actually sort of supports the notion Bush does poorly on weekends.

His lead on a Saturday is made up of the previous 3 days, correct? So that would be 3 weekdays. It looks like Sunday might drag him down through the first few weekdays.

Right...his biggest lead is on Sunday, which is made up of Thursday, Friday, and Saturday sample.   His smallest lead (Wed) is made up of Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday samples.   

Most people consider Friday and Saturday nights to be the weekend, and this is where Bush does the best.  If you consider Saturday and Sunday nights to be the weekend, then it's a wash, but certainly when I worked for a polling firm, we considered Friday night a weekend and Sunday night a weeknight, and this seems to be reflected in people's comments over the past two days about these polls.  It's also the way people in other industries see it, in terms of television scheduling, for instance.

[Pollwatch99]

I've updated top lines for all tracking.  I see no real movment, opinions?

[??????????]

Don't forget this is a holiday weekend for many. Halloween is a BIG BIG drinking Holiday and not everyone is going to be available.

[Whacker77]

I think we might see some movement tomorrow in Fox's poll.  The gender numbers don't make sense and Kerry's good Friday night will be gone tomorrow.  Bush improved the definitiveness of his voters last night so that suggests he won Saturday.  We'll see tomorrow.

[Sam Spade]

It mirrors the movement we saw last weekend.  TIPP moved towards (and I think Zogby did too, a little).  WaPo and Rasmussen moved the other way.  Now you just add Fox to that second bunch as well.

[© tweed]

Bush does best on Sunday and worst on Wednesday, suggesting he polls well on the weekends and badly from Sunday-Tuesday.

That doesn't make sense, wouldn't all the Bush voters be at church on Sunday?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Bush does best on Sunday and worst on Wednesday, suggesting he polls well on the weekends and badly from Sunday-Tuesday.

That doesn't make sense, wouldn't all the Bush voters be at church on Sunday?

I'm just going by the data.  But don't most people go to church on Sunday morning?  I know a lot of African-American churches meet Sunday evening, but I'm not sure about evangelicals.  In any case, if you are weighting by the appropriate demographics, it shouldn't make a difference.