Spanish Elections

[Canadian observer]

Updated : Partial Election Results for the major parties

Poll counted : 96.32%

PSOE: 42.7% (163 seats)
PP: 37.7% (148 seats)
CiU: 3.2% (11 seats)
ERC: 2.5% (8 seats)
EAJ-PNV: 1.7% (7 seats)
IU: 5.0% (5 seats)
CC: 0.7% (3 seats)
Other parties: (5 seats)

[Gustaf]

Dry run by Al Quida on the eve of an election to see if they can punish a government they want out.  Now that they have their result expect an attack on the U S a week or so before our November election.  That will be a bad miscalculation on their part.  We're not a bunch of cowering Euros.  Same strategy is liable to produce a much different result than they are hoping for.

I think 'cowering euros' is raking it a little too far. Spain doesn't have the kind of emotional tie to the Iraq War that the US has.

[agcatter]

Maybe.  But attacking the U.S. in the same way on the eve of our election will get Kerry buried on election day.

You said it yourself.  "Europe fails yet again to rise to the occasion".  Expect more, not less attacks on Europe as a result.  

[Gustaf]

Maybe.  But attacking the U.S. in the same way on the eve of our election will get Kerry buried on election day.

You said it yourself.  "Europe fails yet again to rise to the occasion".  Expect more, not less attacks on Europe as a result.  

Yes, it probably would, but that's b/c you feel part of the war in a way that the Spanish people never did. In fact, they have lvien under fascist rule and with Baskian terrorism for decades. And I also don't think it's correct to lump all Europeans into the same group.

But I agree that it's a stpid decision and that it's giving in to the terrorists. And there might be more attacks, but I'm not sure against which countries.

[Canadian observer]

Maybe.  But attacking the U.S. in the same way on the eve of our election will get Kerry buried on election day.

You said it yourself.  "Europe fails yet again to rise to the occasion".  Expect more, not less attacks on Europe as a result.  

The loss of Aznar's PP might not fall on deaf ears among Al Qaida members.  It's going to look like a reward for the terrorist group, even more so when the next PSOE government will, as they planned, withdraw the Spanish troops from Iraq.

I think the PSOE government, by agreeing to such move, will please the Islamist terrorists more than garantee security for Spain and the rest of Europe.  The idea that the latest Madrid attacks are solely due to the policy of Aznar regarding Iraq was a tool that surely helped the Spanish Socialist.  However, we must keep in mind that Al Qaida uses every reason as it sees fit to attack in any place in the world.  For instance, a video considered to be from the terrorist organization threatened Canada for its participation in the Afghanistan anti-terrorist mission, even though Canada had not officially participate in the last Iraq war.

[Ben.]

I think your all underrating the Spanish here…this is not a victory for Al Quida, to them it does not matter who is in power any where they are still their enemies…the Spanish voted in the socialist not because they where some pacifistic political party that had argued against the war on terror their a fairly moderate party who opposed the war in Iraq it is true but then so did most Spaniards and most Europeans…Spain is not in the habit of giving in to terrorism witness the manner in which they have resisted the attempts by the Basque separatist ETA who have fought for nearly thirty years to create an independent Basque nation and yet very little ground has been given to these terrorist….Spain has not given in to terrorism they have booted out a government which did something the majority of Spaniards disagreed with and as a result of that action they made Spain a target for global terrorism…ultimately Spain voted out the popular party because they did not want to go to war in Iraq and they where right to oppose that war…further more the large turnout (well over 60%) was seen by many as an act of defiance to the terrorists showing that Spain would not be intimidated nor allow the rights and liberties that the terrorist despise to be circumvented… Aznar’s actions have caught up with him he took part in a very unpopular war and made Spain a terrorist target that it was not before that…Spain had no wish to pay for in innocent blood the price for a war it wanted no part of…and the results we hear of today simply show that Spain still opposes the Iraq war the attack simply brought it to the fore…and once again there is no hint of surrender or appeasement here… we ask why America is isolated!      

[agcatter]

Yes, I agree, Al Quida will find an excuse to attack whoever or whenever they please.  These people are murderers pure and simple.

However, Europe is really asking for it.  Terrorists don't commit terror in order to get something in return.  They aren't seeking a negotiation.  They commit terror in order to kill us.  Whether it be Americans, Brits, Spaniards, Italians, even Turks and Saudis.  They worship death.  They want to kill us.  Spain just made a huge mistake and Europeans are going to die.  Fools.  Terrorists blow up innocents and it's the government's fault never the terrorists.

And no, all Europeans don't have the same view on terrorism.  However, a much larger % of Europeans adhere to a less than get tough stance on terrorism than do Americans.  I don't understand the mentality of Europeans.  Appeasement NEVER works.  History has clearly shown us that.  

[Ben.]

Yes, I agree, Al Quida will find an excuse to attack whoever or whenever they please.  These people are murderers pure and simple.

However, Europe is really asking for it.  Terrorists don't commit terror in order to get something in return.  They aren't seeking a negotiation.  They commit terror in order to kill us.  Whether it be Americans, Brits, Spaniards, Italians, even Turks and Saudis.  They worship death.  They want to kill us.  Spain just made a huge mistake and Europeans are going to die.  Fools.  Terrorists blow up innocents and it's the government's fault never the terrorists.

And no, all Europeans don't have the same view on terrorism.  However, a much larger % of Europeans adhere to a less than get tough stance on terrorism than do Americans.  I don't understand the mentality of Europeans.  Appeasement NEVER works.  History has clearly shown us that.  

Agcat they are not appeasers they do not hope that by voting for party’s that may have either opposed the war or alternatively may be from the left of the political spectrum will be inoffensive to Al Quida and therefore avoid its attentions…I will stick my neck and suggest that most of those who vote for leftwing party’s want al-qudia hunted down and destroyed and also want regimes such as Sadam’s was and Iran’s is toppled but not unilaterally by the US which seems to have its best interests at heart as by the rational of humanitarianism that the US now claims as its justification for the Iraq War nations that we are allied with Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan Turkmenistan even China and Burma should come under drastic international pressure to reform and face the threat of US military intervention American foreign policy would be far more internationally popular if it where consistent and Bush’s foreign policy is not…the approach of “my enemies’ enemy is my friend” gave rise to groups such as Al-Quida and yet the present administration does not seem to realise this and continues to accept the backing of nations ruled by groups and individuals who’s record on human rights and the general treatment of their citizens should be abhorrent to all civilised nations…but I digress…            

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Updated : Partial Election Results for the major parties

Poll counted : 96.32%

PSOE: 42.7% (163 seats)
PP: 37.7% (148 seats)
CiU: 3.2% (11 seats)
ERC: 2.5% (8 seats)
EAJ-PNV: 1.7% (7 seats)
IU: 5.0% (5 seats)
CC: 0.7% (3 seats)
Other parties: (5 seats)

Does anyone know who these minor parties coalition with?  I think IU is the Spanish Communists,  who would almost certainly coalition with PSOE.  

CiU and EAJ-PNV are regional nationalist parties, but I have no idea what the ERC is.
Seems like the PSOE would have to get the support of one of these three to get to a majoirty.  

[jaichind]

Excellent !!! I tend to support right wing parties but the PP deserves this defeat for getting itself into a war that 90% of the population opposed.  And then the war comes back to bit itself in the rear, try to blame it on ETA.  They got what they deserve.  This is just about the first time in my life that I am happy that Socialists anywhere won.  Hopefully they can pull Spain out of this absurd war of occupation of Iraq.

[agcatter]

You're all right.  The U S should not have acted without the approval of the "international community".  Oh wait, then Saddam would still be in power wouldn't he.  Oh well, no biggie.  He never hurt anyone - unless you count the Shiites, the Kurds, the Kuwaites, Iranians, etc.  The old leftist montra "Saddam was a bad guy but....."  It's not an oppressive dictator that is the problem.  It's that baby killing Bush.

[jaichind]

You're all right.  The U S should not have acted without the approval of the "international community".  Oh wait, then Saddam would still be in power wouldn't he.  Oh well, no biggie.  He never hurt anyone - unless you count the Shiites, the Kurds, the Kuwaites, Iranians, etc.  The old leftist montra "Saddam was a bad guy but....."  It's not an oppressive dictator that is the problem.  It's that baby killing Bush.

Disagree.  USA should not have acted unless its vitial national interest were at stake.  If it was, then it should act regardless of approval of "international community."  But was its vitial national interests at stake ?  For sure for Spain, Spanish vitial national interests were NOT at stake.  Spain had no business being in the war, however good or bad Saddam may be to whoever.  It was just none of their business.  Now Spain could finally be out.  Another member of the Coalition of the Willing bites the dust.  At least the USA can count on great pargons of human rights and democracy such as Uzbekestan and Kazahstan to be still in the war.

[agcatter]

Beyond Iraq - that's done, Saddam is gone for good - what are you isolationists going to say when terrorist merge with a terrorist supporting regime like Iran and a a nuke is detonated in an American city by terrorists who would do it without blinking an eye.

I know what they'd say in Europe.  America brought it on themselves.  Blame America.  Always blame America.  Yeah, just like America should take the blame for 9-11.  We brought it on ourselves.  Never the fault of terrorists.  Never.

[YoMartin]

It's not over yet, but right now it *looks* as if the PSOE will win...

If the polls counted were mostly in the South (a PSOE stronghold), then the PP might be able to sneak it.
If not the PSOE has won.

Well, northern regions such as Catalunya and Pais Vasco aren´t exactly PP´s "backyard"...

[YoMartin]

I don´t see PP´s defeat as the response to its decission to go to war. The day before the explosions, they were still ahead in the polls. But their mismanagement of that crisis was brutal. Many people saw them desperately trying to blame ETA (when everything pointed elsewhere) for some cheap political speculations, and decided to change their vote, or even to vote when they didn´t plan to. Saturday was probably the crucial day: the arrests of arabs, the video, the demonstrations to PP buildings... If the government had handled the crisis in a more responsible way, I don´t think it would have been punished (or at least, not so severely).

Someone asked about possible partners in governments. IU (United Left) is one possible partner, but their results were pretty poor (5-6 MPs). CiU (moderate catalan nationalists) are also potential partners. I don´t see PSOE going for a coalition with ERC (more extreme catalan nationalists).

About Zapatero´s promises (pulling off the troops, etc.) I think the scenario is completely different now than in the campaig, and I guess the spanish people understand that.

[agcatter]

What is different about the scenerio?  Are you saying that the socialist won't pull the troops out of Iraq after all?

[minionofmidas]

Well, I'm still shocked with delight...
All the time 80/90% of the Spaniards were opposed to the war, opposed to their involvement in the war, and saying in opinion polls that they weren't going to vote on the issue.
Then this terrible attack occurs, and Aznar makes his biggest mistake ever. Without a shred of evidence, he blames it on ETA, because he's staked so much of his reputation on his bigoted campaign against ETA and HB (don't get me wrong, they're worse than him, but look at his language - the man is a Basques-hating bigot).
And it blows up in his face as more evidence linking the attack with Al-Quaeda emerges, lots of people who didn't plan on voting vote Socialist, and they get their second highest tally ever...
I hope Zapatero ties Spain back to the European coasts. Right now it's somewhere off the Bahamas.

I have a problem btw. I looked at the provincial results and the figures I found don't match up.
PSOE 161, but should be 164
PP 146, but should be 148
CiU 11, but should be 10
ERC 8
PNV 5, but should be 7
IU and IC-V 5
CC 3
BNG 2
EA 2
CHA 1
NaBai 1
Entesa 1, but all these together should be 8 rather than 10

The PP suffered worst in Catalonia, it seems. Here's that region's result in seats (it gained one):
PSOE 20 (+3)
CiU 11 (-4)
PP 6 (-6)
ERC 8 (+7)
IC-V 2 (+1)

CiU Convergence and Union, Catalan regionalist, supported both the last Gonazalez and the first Aznar government
ERC Republican Left of Catalonia, Catalan left-wing regionalist, party of Luis Companys (think civil war), their rebirth is really astonishing
PNV Basque National Party, main-stream Basque nationalism, for more autonomy, not for independence
IU United Left, Communists - lost their last seats in Andalusia and Asturias and are now limited to Madrid
IC-V Catalan Left - Greens, the Communists' regional wing in poll alliance with the Greens (who seem not even to exist outside Catalonia), that they got two seats again means there's a Green in the Cortes
CC Canarian Coalition
BNG Galician Nationalist Block
Entesa, NaBai, CHA I don't know what it's short for but regionalist parties from the Levante, Navarra and Aragon
EA Eusko Alkartasuna (Basque Independence) - split away from HB and renounced violence ages ago, but maintain the call for a fully independent Basque Country including Navarra and parts of France

[Umengus]

Beyond Iraq - that's done, Saddam is gone for good - what are you isolationists going to say when terrorist merge with a terrorist supporting regime like Iran and a a nuke is detonated in an American city by terrorists who would do it without blinking an eye.

I know what they'd say in Europe.  America brought it on themselves.  Blame America.  Always blame America.  Yeah, just like America should take the blame for 9-11.  We brought it on ourselves.  Never the fault of terrorists.  Never.

you are wrong. Europa like America and understands and gives (military) support to actions of USA in afganistan. But europans hate Bush and the war in Iraq is not the war of america, it's the war of Bush. Europeans are thinking that it's a good thing to see Saddam out of the power but they don't agree with the way (without ONU, lies of Bush administration,...). And I would want to say that at the beginning, Chirac was not against the war in Irak (look at 1990: france (with socialist president) was with USA against saddam) but the way in wich  the bush administration covered the subject has constrained Chirac and France to be against.

With 09/11 and madrid bombing (and "paris attacks" in 1995 and ETA in Spain and "tueurs du brabant" in Belgium and "Brigades rouges"in Italy and "la bande à Bader" in Germany. Terrorist is not new in Europa . We don't have lessons to receive you), Europa knows the threat and want to fight against, but not with the way of Bush. In last, Iraq was a *** dictatorship but not a terrorist country.
Saudi Arabia, a allied of USA, is a terrorist country....

[Huckleberry Finn]

And I would want to say that at the beginning, Chirac was not against the war in Irak (look at 1990: france (with socialist president) was with USA against saddam) but the way in wich  the bush administration covered the subject has constrained Chirac and France to be against.
[/quote
Chirac was against war on Iraq, because he wanted to increase international influence and power of France. He wasn't against war itself. Chirac isn't pacifist. He is intriguer.

I consider that Schröeder did it with more pacifistic motive.

[minionofmidas]

Got myself the official source for the provincial results and fixed my problems.
The "but should be" totals are correct.
Of the small others, EA has only one seat and ENTESA was the name under which the Communists ran in Valencia, don't ask me why...

The increase in turnout was tremendous btw.
77,2% (+8,5). Whao.
The strongest increase in Guipuzcoa, where ETA-supporters staying at home pushed turnout down to 55,9% last time and it rebounded to 73,6% as these guys went to vote anyways.

Regional (not provincial) seats breakup
Galicia
PP 12 (16)
PSOE 10 (6)
BNG 2 (3)

Basque Country
PNV 7 (7)
PSOE 7 (4)
PP 4 (7)
EA 1 (1)

minor northwestern regions
PP 11 (14)
PSOE 10 (
NaBai 1 (0)
IU 0 (1)

Aragon
PSOE 7 (4)
PP 5 (
CHA 1 (1)

Catalonia
PSOE 21 (17)
CiU 10 (15)
ERC 8 (1)
PP 6 (12)
IC-V 2 (1)

Levante inc. Murcia
PP 23 (25)
PSOE 17 (15)
Entesa 1 (+1)
UV 0 (-1)

Andalusia
PSOE 38 (30)
PP 23 (28)
IU 0 (3)
PA 0 (1)

Island Regions and Moroccan Enclaves
PP 12 (14)
PSOE 10 (5)
CC 3 (4)

Old Castile and Leon
PP 16 (18)
PSOE 12 (10)

Madrid
PP 17 (19)
PSOE 16 (12)
IU 2 (3)

New Castile and Extremadura
PP 16 (18)
PSOE 14 (13)

Notice that four seats were redistributed, Pontevedra (in Galicia), Asturias, Caceres (in Extremadura) and Sevilla losing one,
Gerona (in Catalonia), the Balearic Islands, Madrid and Las Palmas (the Eastern part of the Canaries) gaining one.

[minionofmidas]

Well, the Spanish are going home.

[jaichind]

I am looking forward to the ousting of House of Freedom by Olive Tree in Italy in 2006.  Berlusconi will desreve the same a PP for getting Italy in a absurd war of occupation in Iraq.  
Same in Poland, SLP-UP faces a complete rout.  Self Defence, The Platform, and Law and Justice will dominate Polish politics after the next election.  None of them are that keen on Poland's role in the war of occupation in Iraq.  
One Two Three more Spains !!!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Gustaf]

I think your all underrating the Spanish here…this is not a victory for Al Quida, to them it does not matter who is in power any where they are still their enemies…the Spanish voted in the socialist not because they where some pacifistic political party that had argued against the war on terror their a fairly moderate party who opposed the war in Iraq it is true but then so did most Spaniards and most Europeans…Spain is not in the habit of giving in to terrorism witness the manner in which they have resisted the attempts by the Basque separatist ETA who have fought for nearly thirty years to create an independent Basque nation and yet very little ground has been given to these terrorist….Spain has not given in to terrorism they have booted out a government which did something the majority of Spaniards disagreed with and as a result of that action they made Spain a target for global terrorism…ultimately Spain voted out the popular party because they did not want to go to war in Iraq and they where right to oppose that war…further more the large turnout (well over 60%) was seen by many as an act of defiance to the terrorists showing that Spain would not be intimidated nor allow the rights and liberties that the terrorist despise to be circumvented… Aznar’s actions have caught up with him he took part in a very unpopular war and made Spain a terrorist target that it was not before that…Spain had no wish to pay for in innocent blood the price for a war it wanted no part of…and the results we hear of today simply show that Spain still opposes the Iraq war the attack simply brought it to the fore…and once again there is no hint of surrender or appeasement here… we ask why America is isolated!      

Sums up my view. Well, not exactly sums up, but...you know what I mean...

[Gustaf]

Yes, I agree, Al Quida will find an excuse to attack whoever or whenever they please.  These people are murderers pure and simple.

However, Europe is really asking for it.  Terrorists don't commit terror in order to get something in return.  They aren't seeking a negotiation.  They commit terror in order to kill us.  Whether it be Americans, Brits, Spaniards, Italians, even Turks and Saudis.  They worship death.  They want to kill us.  Spain just made a huge mistake and Europeans are going to die.  Fools.  Terrorists blow up innocents and it's the government's fault never the terrorists.

And no, all Europeans don't have the same view on terrorism.  However, a much larger % of Europeans adhere to a less than get tough stance on terrorism than do Americans.  I don't understand the mentality of Europeans.  Appeasement NEVER works.  History has clearly shown us that.  

I think you're missing the point. Has any European nation NOT supporting US led actions against Muslim countries ever been attacked by Muslim terrorists? I think not. Sure, you can argue that in the long run Islamic fundamentalism will be a threat to the European way of life, etc. But it still remains that we're very far from being as hated as the US and a few of your allies are. So appeasement at least appears sensible on reasonable grounds. And, it isn't really appeasement, since most Europeans didn't seek the conflict originally.