Swedish election 2010

[Gustaf]

Yep. Hasn't happened in quite a long time, so it's bigger news than you'd think. It's only a very small lead, but polling now indicate a tie or something close to a tie. We have only about four months left to the election now so things are beginning to heat up.

The biggest recent issues have been the opposition presenting their budget plan, which basically raises taxes on those who work while increasing benefits for those who don't (people who are sick, unemployed, retired, etc).

When the prime minister charged the leader of the opposition with wanting to raise taxes for 3 million wage earners she replied that since there is 7 million wage earners in Sweden the majority still got cuts under their plan. The PM then felt obliged to point out that there are only 4.5 million wage earners in the country...she later claimed that she had meant to say 7 million citizens, which is worrying since there are actually 9 million of those. (she most likely meant tax-payers of which there are roughly 7 million).

Under the surface crawls the issue of whether xenophobic Sweden Democrats will get above the 4% threshold for parliament seats.

[Mjh]

Excellent news regarding the poll. A lefty social democratic government is the last thing Sweden needs at this point.

Under the surface crawls the issue of whether xenophobic Sweden Democrats will get above the 4% threshold for parliament seats.

I will not be surprised if they do.
Of course people will vote for the xenophobic party when the "respectable" parties refuses to deal with the issue.

[afleitch]

Excellent news regarding the poll. A lefty social democratic government is the last thing Sweden needs at this point.

Agreed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Governments often make a bit of a recovery in the runup to an election; we'll see how this one pans out. Btw, changed the thread title so we can use this for the whole of it all.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

These latest polls have all been very promising. The Social Democrats have completly crashed, and the Alliance is leading in some of the polls, and down by only by one or two points in some others.

The Moderates have been claiming for a long time now that the Red-Greens would start losing in the polls after they presented their budget, a prediction which has come through, so it really seems they know what they're doing. Overall I'm very opptimistic about our chances.

Still the most intresting thing I've seen must have been the poll that claimed around a quater of Social Democratic voters think Reinfeldt is a better PM than Sahlin would be. (Of course with her track record, who don't) 

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I've said for a long time that I believe the most likely result would be a tie in parliament between the left and right with the Sweden Democrats in the middle. To me it seems very unlikely they would not reech the required 4% this time around. But then I'm from Skåne so I guess I might be overestimating their chances. (I certainly hope so)

Question is what would happen if neither the Alliance nor the Red-Greens got a majority. Would the Greens cross the aisle and support a continued Reinfeldt premiership, or would one of the three minor Alliance parties back the Red-Green mess?

Personally I think we can rule out the Centre Party crossing the aisle. Olofsson has probably shown even more contempt for the Red-Greens than the Moderates, so I can't see her backing down and suddenly joining them. She better not, I'd leave the party instantly if it ever decided to support a Goverment in whith Lars Ohly is a major player.     

[DL]

Of course in Norway, the Centre Party has had an alliance with the Labour party for sometime so why wouldn't they do it in Sweden as well?

Sweden seems to have done very well with having the Social Democrats in power for what? 70 out of the last 80 years?? and every time the "bourgeois parties" have governed all it has led to has been chaos and soaring deficits.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

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Because Norwegian Centre Party =/= Swedish Centre Party.

Maud Olofsson has been going around latly saying that it would be one of the most devestating things ever to happen for Sweden to have Lars Ohly and his communist ilk enter goverment. She can't backpeddle on that without losing all credibility and half her party. And Sahlin can't form a coalition without the Left Party. 

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We happen to have the "bourgeois parties" in power right now. We also have one of the most stable economies in Europe, no defecit, and as far as I've been able to tell, order. But I'll be looking out for that chaos and soaring defecits. My guess is I'll find them in United Kingdom, Spain, and Greece, who either is run or was being ran by Social Democratic Labour parties.

[MaxQue]

My guess is I'll find them in United Kingdom, Spain, and Greece, who either is run or was being ran by Social Democratic Labour parties.

PASOK (social democratic) won power in Greece last October. They aren't responsible of the crisis. The conservative New Democracy was in power from 2004 to 2009. I doubt than the country went bankrupt in 6 months. Greece was doomed, no matter the result of the 2009 election. New Democracy called elections in 2009, when they didn't have to call them before September 2011.

Why?

PASOK would be in power during the collapse, not them, so PASOK would have to do the austerity plan and be hated, not them.

[Hash]

Sweden seems to have done very well with having the Social Democrats in power for what? 70 out of the last 80 years?? and every time the "bourgeois parties" have governed all it has led to has been chaos and soaring deficits.

That statement is utterly ridiculous and idiotic.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't think that this discussion is all that enlightening

[Insula Dei]

Sweden seems to have done very well with having the Social Democrats in power for what? 70 out of the last 80 years?? and every time the "bourgeois parties" have governed all it has led to has been chaos and soaring deficits.

That statement is utterly ridiculous and idiotic.

Yeah, obviously Sweden has been completely ruined by Social Democratic rule. Every day you hear those items on the news about mobs gone crazy looting Stockholm's inner city.

Come on. Scandinavia is practically an advert for Social Democracy.

[Hash]

Sweden seems to have done very well with having the Social Democrats in power for what? 70 out of the last 80 years?? and every time the "bourgeois parties" have governed all it has led to has been chaos and soaring deficits.

That statement is utterly ridiculous and idiotic.

Yeah, obviously Sweden has been completely ruined by Social Democratic rule. Every day you hear those items on the news about mobs gone crazy looting Stockholm's inner city.

Come on. Scandinavia is practically an advert for Social Democracy.

Too bad I never suggested that. The idea that the Swedish right in government has brought chaos and deficits is utterly ridiculous and idiotic.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...as far as the election itself goes, it'd be useful if someone posted poll numbers here.

[Hash]

...as far as the election itself goes, it'd be useful if someone posted poll numbers here.

This is probably the poll being referred to:

M 30.6
FpL 9
KD 5.4
C 4.2
Right 49.2
S 33.8
GRN 8.8
Vp 4.8
Left 47.4
SD 2.1

[DL]

Maud Olofsson has been going around latly saying that it would be one of the most devestating things ever to happen for Sweden to have Lars Ohly and his communist ilk enter goverment. She can't backpeddle on that without losing all credibility and half her party. And Sahlin can't form a coalition without the Left Party. 

I don't believe that the Left Party has ever formed an actual coalition government with the Social Democrats. The SDs have only won an absolute majority once in Swedish political history - all the other times they have formed minority governments where all cabinet ministers were Social Democrats but where the Greens and the Left party provided external support. 

[DL]

Too bad I never suggested that. The idea that the Swedish right in government has brought chaos and deficits is utterly ridiculous and idiotic.

Let's take a trip down memory lane. The two times the rightwing parties have governed in Sweden were 1976-1982 - total flop - governments collapsing over and over, high inflation, soaring deficits, recession. Then Swedes came to their senses and brought back the SD in 1982 and then all was well again. Then in 1991-1994, people decided to experiment with the right again under Carl Bildt - again chaotic government, soaring inflation, deficits, recession etc... and Bildt was crushed in 1994 when he ran for re-election.

[Hash]

Too bad I never suggested that. The idea that the Swedish right in government has brought chaos and deficits is utterly ridiculous and idiotic.

Let's take a trip down memory lane. The two times the rightwing parties have governed in Sweden were 1976-1982 - total flop - governments collapsing over and over, high inflation, soaring deficits, recession. Then Swedes came to their senses and brought back the SD in 1982 and then all was well again. Then in 1991-1994, people decided to experiment with the right again under Carl Bildt - again chaotic government, soaring inflation, deficits, recession etc... and Bildt was crushed in 1994 when he ran for re-election.

And under Reinfeldt? Certainly he turned it into a Scandinavian Greece, no?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

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Stockholm is the single most conservative area in Sweden, so obviously there will be no rioting there Now Malmö (Social Democratic stronghold) on the other hand...  

I've grown up in this Social Democratic advert and yet I'm unconvinced. Quite the opposite actually, if anything it has made me more right-wing than I would otherwise be. The fact that I'll have to give up most of my future income after years of hard work and education, so that my cousin who dropped out of school and is too lazy to keep a job never needs to lift a finger but can leech of the welfere system irks me. Nor am I sure the Swedish justice system or education system would be approved of that many people.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Sorry Al. Here you go. Polls for May.


Synovate:

Alliance: 48,3%

M: 31,8%
Kd: 4,6 %
Fp: 7,2%
C: 4,7 %

Red-Greens: 46,5%

S: 32,5%
Mp: 8,8%
V: 5,2%

Sd: 2,5%


Sifo:

Alliance: 46,2%

M: 30,9%
Kd:3,5%
Fp: 6,7%
C: 5,1%

Red-Greens: 49.3%

S: 34,3%
Mp: 10,7%
V: 4,3%

Sd: 3,5%


Novus:

Alliance:46,5%

M: 31,2%
Kd:4,1%
Fp: 6,3%
C: 4,9%

Red-Greens: 47,5%

S: 33,6%
Mp: 8,3%
V: 5,6%

Sd: 4,6%

Hashmite already posted Demoskop.

[Insula Dei]

Too bad I never suggested that. The idea that the Swedish right in government has brought chaos and deficits is utterly ridiculous and idiotic.

Let's take a trip down memory lane. The two times the rightwing parties have governed in Sweden were 1976-1982 - total flop - governments collapsing over and over, high inflation, soaring deficits, recession. Then Swedes came to their senses and brought back the SD in 1982 and then all was well again. Then in 1991-1994, people decided to experiment with the right again under Carl Bildt - again chaotic government, soaring inflation, deficits, recession etc... and Bildt was crushed in 1994 when he ran for re-election.

And under Reinfeldt? Certainly he turned it into a Scandinavian Greece, no?

Wow, you could at least have tried to attack his arguments and pretend Bildt & Co. were actually good leaders, but nooooo..... let's come up with our master card: Reinfeldt.
You basically admit the point  DL made in the first place and you made fun of: that Swedish centre-right governments have hardly been large succeses.

[Lief 🗽]

I take it the Pirates are unlikely to cross the seat threshold as they did in the Euro elections?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why is Stockholm right wing? That seems odd.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Why is Stockholm right wing? That seems odd.

Stockholm has some very wealthy upper-middleclass suburbs, like Danderyd, Nacka, Ekerö, Täby, Lidingö... as well as some very wealthy inner city areas like Östermalm, Kungsholmen, and Norrmalm that votes for the Moderate Party around 40-60% while the Social Democrats does 15-25% at best in those areas. Stockholm as a whole is actually a pretty wealthy city, and except a few poor suburbs in Botkyrka, and the city of Södertälje, there aren't really any poorer, left-wing areas in the whole of Stockholm County.

But Sweden is kind of opposite to almost all other countries in that way, since our urban areas is mostly right-wing, while the rural areas are strongly left wing.

I take it the Pirates are unlikely to cross the seat threshold as they did in the Euro elections?

No it doesn't look like it. Back during the Euro election, Swedish parliament had just passed several laws concerning file sharing and integrity, so that was a very hot topic at the time, and as basicly the only party against, the Pirates got a lot of attention in media which gave them a huge boost. The Euro elections also only have half the turn-out that the general election has, so in those elections the party base plays a much bigger role than in the general election, and since the Pirates has a lot of devoted members that were much more enthusiastic to go out and vote than most of the main parties that helped them a lot as well. Now in the general election, when the hot potato is the economy, there really isn't any room for them in the debate, so unless parliament decides to pass another set of anti-integrity laws before the election I don't really see them being able to get the support they did last year.

Funny fact though, counted in membership, the Pirates are Sweden's fourth biggest party beating Greens, Christian Democrats, People's Party, Left Party, and Sweden Democrats. 
     
   

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why is Stockholm right wing? That seems odd.

Stockholm has some very wealthy upper-middleclass suburbs, like Danderyd, Nacka, Ekerö, Täby, Lidingö... as well as some very wealthy inner city areas like Östermalm, Kungsholmen, and Norrmalm that votes for the Moderate Party around 40-60% while the Social Democrats does 15-25% at best in those areas. Stockholm as a whole is actually a pretty wealthy city, and except a few poor suburbs in Botkyrka, and the city of Södertälje, there aren't really any poorer, left-wing areas in the whole of Stockholm County.

I'm talking about the city itself. Suburbs are not part of the city, ever. Period.

Stockholm proper sounds kind of like Manhattan, but that sure as hell isn't conservative.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm talking about the city itself. Suburbs are not part of the city, ever. Period.

But where do the suburbs begin and the city end?

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Well, no, but the posh parts would be if they were in a country where class is one of the main factors in voting patterns, rather than a secondary one.