Swedish election 2010

[MaxQue]

Talking of Centre, what your signature ad means and do they believe it the "Scavinavian model", as we call it here?

[DL]

Miljöpartiet (The Greens) are alright, they agree with C on many core issues, but they unfortunatley come with two awful defects, namly Socialdemocrats and Communists.

Tl;dr I know, but you asked.   

So what exactly is so bad about the Social Democrats? They have governed Sweden for almost the entire 20th century and during that time they took what was one of the poorer countries in Europe and made into a country with just about the highest standard of in the world, they created a range of social programs that have been copied everywhere, they have been fiscally responsible, under them Sweden has often been the least affected during various other economic downturns, they have been progressive on a lot of foreign policy issues and under their stewardship Sweden has been one of the few countries in Europe which  has escape a rightwing populist upsurge of xenophobia against immigrants (look at the Progress party in Norway and the Danish peoples party to see what could have happened but did not in Sweden). I realize no party is perfect - but given how relatively "successful" a country Sweden has been in the last 80 years compared to just about every other country and considering that the SDs have run the country almost all the time - don't you think they should get some credit?

BTW, having lived in Sweden and Canada - which has NEVER had a social democratic government - I found that the SDs were very ideologically flexible, there are things in Sweden like having the choice of private health care and having to pay a fee to see a doctor that existed under an SD government and not even the most rightwing parties in Canada would ever allow.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Talking of Centre, what your signature ad means and do they believe it the "Scavinavian model", as we call it here?

"The Centre Party, because I believe in small business, local goverment, and a green and liberal Sweden."

And yes the Centre party believes in a mixed market economy.

So what exactly is so bad about the Social Democrats? They have governed Sweden for almost the entire 20th century and during that time they took what was one of the poorer countries in Europe and made into a country with just about the highest standard of in the world, they created a range of social programs that have been copied everywhere, they have been fiscally responsible, under them Sweden has often been the least affected during various other economic downturns, they have been progressive on a lot of foreign policy issues and under their stewardship Sweden has been one of the few countries in Europe which  has escape a rightwing populist upsurge of xenophobia against immigrants (look at the Progress party in Norway and the Danish peoples party to see what could have happened but did not in Sweden). I realize no party is perfect - but given how relatively "successful" a country Sweden has been in the last 80 years compared to just about every other country and considering that the SDs have run the country almost all the time - don't you think they should get some credit?

DL, I do give some credit to the Social Democrats for where Sweden is today. And I've said before (and I believe) that Per Albin Hansson was the best PM this country has ever had. But Sweden's economic success isn't only thanks to the Social Democrats. Mostly I would credit it to our neutrality during the war, which meant that after WWII when the rest of Europe was destroyed, Sweden had working factories and lots of wood, iron, and stone to export which gave us an unparalled economic growth for 15 years, and the Social Democrats happened to be in power at that time, but the growth would have happened even with a right-wing goverment.

As to your question, why the Social Democrats are so bad, there's more to politics than economy. And since Palme took over in the early 70's and decided to take his party in a more radical and ideological direction, as opposed to the more practical, moderate, down to earth politics of Erlander, and Hansson, the Social Democrats policis on school, justice, and welfere has destroyed our education system, made our legal-system laughable, and undermined and hurt the Swedish welfere system.

Btw, SD is usually the acronym used for the xenophobic Sweden Democrats, while the Social Democrats are known simply as S or SAP.         

[Gustaf]

If we are to discuss the pros and cons of the parties really in depth it might be a good idea to start a separate thread.

It should be noted though that the Social Democratic party of old is not around anymore. From the early 70s to the mid 90s Sweden fell from a position as the 3rd or 4th richest country in the world to about the 20th or so.

Today, the Social Democrats is, imo, not much or a workers' party, but a party for those who do not work. In one of the most generous welfare states in the world they want to raise taxes on those who work and increase benefits for everyone who does not work.

They have absolutely destroyed the education system in Sweden over the past 30 years (after making it very good in the decades before that, granted).

And of course, it is completely corrupt both in the conventional sense and politically. They've sold out all their ideas and become a vehicle of power greed, as always happens with parties who stay in power too long.

There is a strong social democratic tradition of cynically and consciously lying to the electorate in order to retain power which is not present in any other party in Sweden.

To be honest, the old SAP I sort of like. I would probably have voted for them in a lot of pre-1970 elections. And I like the Greens too. But the cooperation with V is really a clincher for me. The current red-green coalition lacks ideas.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Some comments from Sweden Democrat supporters I've found today while browsing the interwbes. 

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That would be amusing considering the Sweden Democrats are royalists.

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...because the Greens and the Sweden Democrats have so much in common?

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... *no comment*

[DL]

If the Sweden Democrats get into the Riksdag and hold the balance of power - would the Moderate/Centre/Liberal and Christian Democrats be willing to make a deal with those neo-Nazis in order to stay in power? What sort of policy concessions would they make to get the SDs to support them?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

If the Sweden Democrats get into the Riksdag and hold the balance of power - would the Moderate/Centre/Liberal and Christian Democrats be willing to make a deal with those neo-Nazis in order to stay in power? What sort of policy concessions would they make to get the SDs to support them?

According to all four of the parties, no. There will be no deal between the Alliance and the Sweden Democrats.

The most likely result, as I see it, would be for Reinfeldt to stay in power (Sweden Democrats would probably not vote against him in a Vote of No Confidance as long as Sahlin is the alternative) and the goverment would then make an agreement on the budget with the Greens. All in all a very unstable parlamentery situation, which is why we shall hope that one of the sides get a majority in parliament.

 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So new election very soon in other words.

[Gustaf]

So new election very soon in other words.

Possibly, but holding elections outside of normal dates is highly unusual in Sweden (in fact, I can't recall it ever happening, at least not in the last 80 years or so).

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So new election very soon in other words.

Possibly, but holding elections outside of normal dates is highly unusual in Sweden (in fact, I can't recall it ever happening, at least not in the last 80 years or so).

It happened in 1958 when the coalition between the Centre Party and the Social Democrats ended and Erlander wasn't able to get enough support in the second chamber for his pension reform, but that's the only time in modern history.   

[Gustaf]

So new election very soon in other words.

Possibly, but holding elections outside of normal dates is highly unusual in Sweden (in fact, I can't recall it ever happening, at least not in the last 80 years or so).

It happened in 1958 when the coalition between the Centre Party and the Social Democrats ended and Erlander wasn't able to get enough support in the second chamber for his pension reform, but that's the only time in modern history.   

True, my bad.

[DL]

That was a situation where there was a conflict between who controlled the upper and lower houses of parliament - can't happen now since Sweden abolished its upper house a long time ago.

In Norway there have been deadlocks like this where the Progress Party prevents anyone from forming a government - sometimes they end up with a minority government formed by the small centrist parties.

Could you ever have a situation in Sweden where say the Centre, Liberals, Christian Dems and Greens forms a centrist minority government?

[Gustaf]

That was a situation where there was a conflict between who controlled the upper and lower houses of parliament - can't happen now since Sweden abolished its upper house a long time ago.

In Norway there have been deadlocks like this where the Progress Party prevents anyone from forming a government - sometimes they end up with a minority government formed by the small centrist parties.

Could you ever have a situation in Sweden where say the Centre, Liberals, Christian Dems and Greens forms a centrist minority government?

It was discussed after 2002, but it is very unlikely today, imo.

[DL]

I suppose that another issue on the "bourgeois" side is that once upon a time the Moderates, Centre and Liberal parties were closer to having equal or similar levels of strength. Now the Moderates are over 30% while the other right of centre parties are close to falling below the 5% threshold. I wonder whether as the Mods start to gobble up over 80% of the seats in the "Alliance for Sweden" at some point the smaller parties start to lose any identity and find it harder and harder to show that they are getting anything for their supporters.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, the way that the Moderates have eaten into the support of the other bourgeois parties is one of the most interesting recent political developments in Sweden.

[Gustaf]

Basically, they did a radical move to the centre under a leadership that has inspired a lot of confidence. They're looking pragmatic and statesmanlike in a way they didn't in the old days.

And, of course, junior coalition partners often tend to be over-shadowed.

Btw, the threshold is 4%, not 5%.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Personally I believe the Moderates' gains among voters that used to vote for the minor bourgeois parties are partly due to the leaders. Reinfeldt, Borg, and Bildt, who act like the Moderate Party's face are all very charismatic, intelligent and likable persons, while the Christian Democrats' Göran Hägglund is increadibly dull, and the People Party's Björklund mostly comes of as harsh and unfriendly.

Olofsson used to be very well-liked (and managed to increase the support for the party during the two previous elections) but her fortunes have fallen, partly because she's been stuck with the unlucky job of running Swedish industry during a recession that hurt the Swedish industry hard, as well as increasingly starting to become a gaffle machine. The two other main faces of the Centre Party, Carlgren and Federley, are either unbelievebly dull or slightly crazy, something that doesn't help.

Compare to 2002 when the Moderates had the uncharismatic Bo Lundgren as leader, when they only got 16% of the vote and the People's Party nearly managed to beat them with 14%

The Moderate Party's move to the left, and the other bourgeois parties move to the right also affects things obviously though.

  

[Gustaf]

New poll from Novus:

Blue bloc:

M: 33,1%
FP: 6,6%
C: 4,8%
KD: 4,6%

Total: 49.1%

Red-Green bloc

S: 30,0%
MP: 9,3%
V: 5,2%

Total: 44,5%

Margin: 4,6%

Incidentally, SD: 4.6%

We're in for an exciting campaign, or so it seems...

[KuntaKinte]

It seems that the strong performance of the Moderates at the expense of their partners could become a problem for the government coalition, since Christian Democrats and Centre party are uncomfortably close to the treshhold.

If one of the two fails, it will be hard for the centre-right to get a majority. Something I of course wouldn't complain about.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

First June poll arrived today. Alliance with a slight advantage, but no majority as the Sweden Democrats get into parliament.

Alliance: 46,9

M: 31,8
Kd: 4,5%
Fp: 5,6%
C: 5,0

Red-Greens: 45,8%

Mp: 9,3%
S: 30,8%
V: 5,7%

Sweden Democrats: 5,7%

[Gustaf]

I'm currently in Almedalen, the biggest political event in Sweden. I'm gonna report on my experiences there when I have more time.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I'm currently in Almedalen, the biggest political event in Sweden. I'm gonna report on my experiences there when I have more time.

You know you're a political geek, when you get jealous when someone writes they're in Almedalen.

I'm of course following it from the sofa with a mix of mild surprise, positive feelings, facepalms, and irritated grunts at some of the news that have showed up so far this week. Looking forward to your report.

[Gloucestrian]

Too close to call. Maybe Sahilin is like Hillary in America, very high unfavorable ratings. She might pull it off though.

[Gustaf]

Highlight of the day: Finance Minister Anders Borg shook my hand!

[Gustaf]

So, couple of interesting things that I learned:

1. Sweden Democratic voters tend to be craftsmen and other such people who are culturally working class but economically fairly well-off. They are thus the anti-thesis of the typical V-voters who are poor academics.

2. Some of the pivotal voters are so-called "gråsossar" - people who were born in the working class but who have risen to the middle and upper classes through education and work white-collar jobs in the private sector, often in the large, classic companies of Swedish industry in the industrial towns around the country (ABB in Västerås, etc).

3. Lots of interesting stats on voters and their life-styles that I will dig up later. V-voters use drugs, don't shower and have lots of sex. M-voters play golf, S-voters want to go to Mallorca for vacation. Most is expected, some is not.

4. We're going to have to deal with major changes in the welfare system once the baby-boomers retire and people in general live longer and longer.

5. The Red-Green parties are sort of clueless when it comes to running the country. S is very smart when it comes to running campaigns. C and KD are clueless when it comes to running their own parties. More on this later.

6. It might interest the one or two non-Europeans still reading this thread that the FP-leader Jan Björklund devoted part of his speech to defend Sweden's participation in Afghanistan (which the left wants to end). He wouldn't be a liberal politician if he contented himself with that though. He had to move even further and say that we should be grateful to Americans for sacrificing their lives for freedom in the struggles against fascism, communism and now islamic terrorism.

I will post more later on the actual speeches.

Oh, of course, the big news, imo, is that M will not cut any taxes next year if reelected. Might be the first time ever M does not campaign on tax-cuts. Instead Reinfeldt promised to spend on the welfare state. And, in other news, MP wants to make it illegal to have malls far away from cities. What's the appropriate English expression again...ho-hum?