Swedish election 2010

[Gustaf]

Ok, here's the thing. Using historical trends from monday to wednesday counts the Alliance should take 2 more seats.

It seems however that they would need FP to increase by 37 more votes in Värmland than historically in order to get the 3rd one. Having looked at the numbers, it apparently isn't as preposterous as I originally thought.

[Gustaf]

The Alliance took another seat in Dalarna. It appears as if they missed a seat in Gothenburg by 4 votes. Right now it looks like those 4 votes might decide the election.

[Gustaf]

Update: the Alliance is apparently expected to take another seat from Värmland. Thus, the 4 votes in Gothenburg will decide the whole thing. We're going to have to wait for the recount by local authorities (who have the final say on whether ballots are thrown out or not)

[afleitch]

Crikey!

[danny]

They really take the saying "every vote counts" literally.

[Gustaf]

They didn't get the seat in Värmland, but it might because rules during the vote counting were violated. For this reason the municipality of Arvika might have to hold a revote in November.

The Gothenburg result stands though, so it doesn't really matter. The Alliance gets 173, with 175 needed for majority. Now, negotiations will ensue.

[Gustaf]

One locally elected (councilman might be the best equivalent) from SD leaves the party citing as his reason that he read their platform. Yes, seriously. He says the immigrants are his friends and he cannot stay.

Another SD councilman turns out to be a practicing shaman. Again, yes, seriously.

And the hysterics over SD continues to reach bizarre levels in the media and on Facebook.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If it's local government, the usual word is councillor. But, yeah, LOL. I've been telling anyone who'll listen to me that SD are more like a Swedish BNP than the more popular (and in a way more sinister; because of their popularity) far-right parties elsewhere, and it's nice to have confirmation. Does their leader use it as his personal piggy bank as well?

[Gustaf]

If it's local government, the usual word is councillor. But, yeah, LOL. I've been telling anyone who'll listen to me that SD are more like a Swedish BNP than the more popular (and in a way more sinister; because of their popularity) far-right parties elsewhere, and it's nice to have confirmation. Does their leader use it as his personal piggy bank as well?

I don't know a lot about those aspects of the party to be honest. I know most of their funds comes from an anonymous donator nicknamed "santa claus" but no one knows who that is.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I know most of their funds comes from an anonymous donator nicknamed "santa claus"

Of course it does.

[Gustaf]

I should add that BNP, from what I've read, seems worse in the racism department. SD's platform explicitly states that they are strongly opposed to discrimination based on gender, religious or political affiliation or ethnic background.

They also repeat several times in their various platforms that it is human and understandable that people want to come to the West to live a better life, but that the current levels of immigration is untenable, etc.

It is debatable how sincere such declarations are, of course, but it still seems a far cry from the "only whites allowed" policy of the BNP...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That just means that they're slightly more intelligent

[minionofmidas]

I know most of their funds comes from an anonymous donator nicknamed "santa claus"

Of course it does.

Wow.

[Gustaf]

I know most of their funds comes from an anonymous donator nicknamed "santa claus"

Of course it does.

Wow.

Why the wow?

[minionofmidas]

It's hilariously fringe.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

With the lack of Swedish election news (We're still waiting for the first post-Almedalen-and-Littorin poll) I thought I'd post some intresting statistics from 06 for everyone to enoy. ^^

Constituencies won by the Alliance by margin

1 Stockholm County (+23,08%)
2 Stockholm City (+15,93%)
3 Halland (+14,79%)
4 Skåne South (+14,62)
5 V. Götaland West (+9,85%)
6 Uppsala (+9,20%)
7 Jönköping (+8,76%)
8 Skåne North & East (+7,54%) This is where I live
9 Skåne West (+5,72%)
10 Kronoberg (+4,48%)
11 V. Götaland South (+2,90%)
12 Gothenburg (+2,31%)
13 Gotland (+1,90%)
14 V. Götaland East (+0,46%)

Constituencies won by the Red-Greens by margin

1 Norrbotten (+37,78%) Bloody Scary
2 Västerbotten (+19,83%)
3 Västernorrland (+17,69%)
4 Gävleborg (+13,96%)
5 Örebro (+13,70%)
6 Jämtland (+11,11%)
7 Blekinge (+10,65%)
8 Värmland (+9,62%)
9 Dalarna (+9,07%)
10 Södermanland (+9,02%)
11 Västmanland (+6,22%)
12 Kalmar (+5,54%)
13 V. Götaland North (+3,47%)
14 Malmö (+3,07%)
15 Östergötland (+1,06%)

Constituencies with Alliance plurality by margin

1 Stockholm County (+26,15%)
2 Skåne South (+24,43%)
3 Halland (+20,37%)
4 V Götaland West (+17,04%)
5 Stockholm City (+14,00%)
6 Skåne North & East (+13,18%)
7 Jönköping (+13,02%)
8 Skåne West (+12,76)
9 Kronoberg (+10,39%)
10 Uppsala (+10,25%)
11 V Götaland South (+6,54%)
12 V Götaland East (+4,55%)
13 Gothenburg (+4,23%)
14 V Götaland North (+2,64%)
15 Malmö (+2,12%)
16 Östergötland (+1,95%)
17 Kalmar (+0,74%)

Constituencies with Red-Green plurality by margin

1 Norrbotten (+37,77%)
2 Västerbotten (+22,85%)
3 Västernorrland (+17,35%)
4 Gävleborg (+11,82%)
5 Jämtland (+11,62%)
6 Örebro (+9,17%)
7 Dalarna (+7,03%)
8 Värmland (+6,10%)
9 Blekinge (+4,32%)
10 Västmanland (+3,57%)
11 Södermanland (+2.35%)
12 Gotland (+0,40%)


Quite a bit surprising that Gotland swung to the red-greens and that the Alliance actually lost it to them this time around. Wonder what the reason for that may be? Otherwise no big surprises, although it is a bit strange seeing Stockholm City only being the Alliance's fifth biggest lead.

 

[Gustaf]

If I were to guess I would mention 2 things:

1. Gotland is Centre Party territory and they didn't do too great this election.

2. The left's losses were largely to SD I think (at least net) and SD weren't strong in Gotland.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hey I just found out the leader of the Sweden Democrats took that position when he was only about my age and has held office since 19. I'd think that'd be pretty cool if it wasn't such a vile party.

If I'm reading the wikipedia map correctly they got a ton of votes in that far southern peninsula and got almost no support elsewhere. Is that some sort of economically depressed post-industrial area?

[Hash]

and got almost no support elsewhere.

That's not so.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well the map kind of sucks:



More support is actually represented by the lighter colors (complete opposite of Atlas scheme.) And not much of a clue over what the color legend is. Looks like they had relative support in the central part of the country too.

[minionofmidas]

They had much their best support in Skane, yes. And very little in Stockholm and the (thinly populated and strongly leftist) far north.

[Gustaf]

SD has always had its main source of strength in Skåne. I'm not sure exactly why to be honest. Part of it is that Skåne is rural conservative (it's the Texas of Sweden). Part of it is that it has lots of immigrants.

Outside of that though they were fairly strong in most of the country and some of their best regions were actually in the Red North (Dalarna and Gävleborg). Their worse areas were far North and around Stockholm. The former has no immigrants and the latter is well-off, educated and tolerant. To put it in crude terms.

They tend to do well in industrial areas with high unemployment and lots of immigrants.

[minionofmidas]

More like the Indiana of Sweden. Fairly industrial or post-industrial, but also fairly affluent. Also, very high rural/smalltown population density (by Swedish standards... well duh. It's the inhabitable part. ).

[Gustaf]

More like the Indiana of Sweden. Fairly industrial or post-industrial, but also fairly affluent. Also, very high rural/smalltown population density (by Swedish standards... well duh. It's the inhabitable part. ).

Now you're ignoring the whole part about how they want to be their own country, how everyone else wants them to be their own country, how they're not really Swedish, speaks a dialect no one understands and, at least at my university, constitute their own sect throwing their own parties.

Also, I didn't think Indiana was one of the top 2, top 3 economic centres of the US? Just saying that it is affluent kind of understates both the richness and the size of Skåne.

EDIT: I forgot to add my apology to Johan for this tounge-in-cheek stereotyping of Skåne.

[minionofmidas]

Also, I didn't think Indiana was one of the top 2, top 3 economic centres of the US? Just saying that it is affluent kind of understates both the richness and the size of Skåne.

Ah, but that's purely because the US is so infinitely larger than Sweden. Imagine if all of Scandinavia, Germany, Benelux and the British Isles were one country.

(You have more of a point in the para. above... but you won't find a decent parallel in the US except maybe Hawai'i or Aztlán. Texas doesn't begin to cut it.)

Of course what I was really saying is simply that Indiana has similar demographics and a vaguely comparable political culture. Texas doesn't.