Predict the May Job Growth

[Tender Branson]

The May release should be out next Friday.

I´d say about 438.000 jobs.

[Bo]

354,000 net new jobs created

[Tender Branson]

I´m updating this to 674.000 jobs, including the Census Jobs.

About 400.000 Census jobs and 274.000 private sector jobs.

[Ban my account ffs!]

I'm gonna predict this kinda the way NOAA predicts long term weather...

It will likely be lower than the best case scenario but higher than the worst case scenario.

[Cubby]

Economists estimate about 513,000 new jobs, according to several news sources.

I went with 400-500,000 because anything over that is extremely rare. Would be great if it was over 500 K though.

If there are fewer than 150,000 non-Census jobs though, the stock market might react negatively.

[Tender Branson]

Economists estimate about 513,000 new jobs, according to several news sources.

I went with 400-500,000 because anything over that is extremely rare. Would be great if it was over 500 K though.

If there are fewer than 150,000 non-Census jobs though, the stock market might react negatively.

It was already said in the morning that about 420.000 Census jobs will be reported in this release, so the question is only how many private sector jobs have been created.

I base my estimate on the Gallup job creation survey, which had a strong surge in May and is continuing now.

I think the rate might go down to 9.7%

[Tender Branson]

Meh, only 431.000 jobs, with 411.000 census jobs.

Rate = 9.7% (-0.2%)

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Take out the census jobs and it's not good.......9.8%

[phk]

All major US indices are down on the jobs report.

[Beet]

All major US indices are down on the jobs report.

Not really correct. The jobs report was a moderate disappointment, but US indices are reacting more to what's coming out of Europe. There are rumors that French Bank Societe General is taking serious credit losses, Italian government debt now costs 60 more basis points to insure than yesterday, and the Athens General was down 5%, it's biggest decline in weeks. Europe is melting down, and armageddon is coming.

[Sam Spade]

The numbers sucked, but this is a statistical survey, so who knows. (MOE, MOE)

FYI, May job numbers are usually the among the strongest of the year, as Labor Dept. likes to add B/D jobs at this time and college grads are leaving school and getting jobs.

Census jobs will start to drain on the headline number starting next month or so, unless the pretend re-hiring really ratchets up.

[Psychic Octopus]

Disappointing.

[Tender Branson]

Economists estimate about 513,000 new jobs, according to several news sources.

I went with 400-500,000 because anything over that is extremely rare. Would be great if it was over 500 K though.

If there are fewer than 150,000 non-Census jobs though, the stock market might react negatively.

It was already said in the morning that about 420.000 Census jobs will be reported in this release, so the question is only how many private sector jobs have been created.

I base my estimate on the Gallup job creation survey, which had a strong surge in May and is continuing now.

I think the rate might go down to 9.7%

Hmm, probably shouldn´t trust Gallup on this:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110134/Gallup-Daily-US-Job-Market.aspx

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Well, today sucked.

[opebo]

Well, today sucked.

Get used to it.  No government action = economic collapse.

[Free Trade is managed by the invisible hand.]

Well, today sucked.

Get used to it.  No government action = economic collapse.

too bad most people get their advice from CNBC, and gerald celest.

[Sam Spade]

Well, today sucked.

Get used to it.  No government action = economic collapse.

No government action?  Seriously?

Without the Fed's present and ongoing effort, you would have seen the -10% GDP yearly print I talk about.  Which means it'll happen soon enough.

[opebo]

No government action?  Seriously?

Without the Fed's present and ongoing effort, you would have seen the -10% GDP yearly print I talk about.  Which means it'll happen soon enough.

I've never seen you talk about a 'yearly print', whatever that is. 

The Fed is not sufficient for 'government action'.  We need massive fiscal stimulus as well. 

[Cubby]

It was already said in the morning that about 420.000 Census jobs will be reported in this release, so the question is only how many private sector jobs have been created.

I base my estimate on the Gallup job creation survey, which had a strong surge in May and is continuing now.

I think the rate might go down to 9.7%

I didn't know that the Census jobs had already been announced till just now. I thought the jobs data was always embargoed until the morning of the first Friday of the month.

If there are fewer than 150,000 non-Census jobs though, the stock market might react negatively.

The only reason I qualified that with "might" was because sometimes the market reacts positively to bad news for US consumers or vice versa because of other factors like possible interest rate hikes and such.

[??????????]

41000 jobs created, lol.

[opebo]

41000 jobs created, lol.

Your bemusement seems strange, given your vulnerability, worker.

[Tender Branson]

Wait, it may not be that bad actually:

Census pay may have lured workers from taking other jobs

Last week's disappointing report on the job market may not be as dreary as it appears.

Some economists say the addition of 411,000 temporary Census workers in May didn't just mask a poor showing by the more critical private sector — it could have been a big reason for the bleak numbers.

Many unemployed workers who otherwise would have taken permanent jobs at private firms instead likely opted for higher-paying temporary Census jobs, economists say. That could have left fewer good candidates for private-sector jobs and prompted employers to put off hiring, says Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist for Federated Investors, an investment firm.

In fact, a similar dynamic was at work in each of the previous four censuses, Deutsche Bank said in a report.

In May of 2000, Census hired 348,000 workers, and private-sector employment fell by 120,000. That was an anomaly: Private jobs surged by 217,000 in April and 214,000 in June.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/employment/2010-06-08-census08_ST_N.htm

[Free Trade is managed by the invisible hand.]

Wait, it may not be that bad actually:

Census pay may have lured workers from taking other jobs

Last week's disappointing report on the job market may not be as dreary as it appears.

Some economists say the addition of 411,000 temporary Census workers in May didn't just mask a poor showing by the more critical private sector — it could have been a big reason for the bleak numbers.

Many unemployed workers who otherwise would have taken permanent jobs at private firms instead likely opted for higher-paying temporary Census jobs, economists say. That could have left fewer good candidates for private-sector jobs and prompted employers to put off hiring, says Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist for Federated Investors, an investment firm.

In fact, a similar dynamic was at work in each of the previous four censuses, Deutsche Bank said in a report.

In May of 2000, Census hired 348,000 workers, and private-sector employment fell by 120,000. That was an anomaly: Private jobs surged by 217,000 in April and 214,000 in June.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/employment/2010-06-08-census08_ST_N.htm

more than half of the census workers already have other jobs.

[Cubby]

Wait, it may not be that bad actually:

Census pay may have lured workers from taking other jobs................In fact, a similar dynamic was at work in each of the previous four censuses, Deutsche Bank said in a report.

In May of 2000, Census hired 348,000 workers, and private-sector employment fell by 120,000. That was an anomaly: Private jobs surged by 217,000 in April and 214,000 in June.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/employment/2010-06-08-census08_ST_N.htm

While this may be a possibility, keep in mind that May 2000 was a couple months after the stock market peaked (i.e. NASDAQ 5,000) so the jobs number that month may have been an early warning sign of the mini-recession which occured the following year. The economy was still pretty good for the rest of 2000, so this the Census theory may be more accurate.