10/31 State Bot's Bush FL/OH/MN Kerry PA/MI

[Pollwatch99]

7 day rolling average includes leaners

FL   Bush  50  Kerry 47 ( slight to Bush )  Bush Job Approval 52
OH  Bush  51  Kerry 48 ( slight to Bush )  Bush Job Approval 54
MN  Bush  48  Kerry 48 ( steady )             Bush Job Approval 53

PA  Kerry   50 Bush 48  ( slight to Bush )  Bush Job Approval 51
MI  Kerry   50 Bush  47  ( stable )             Bush Job Approval 51

[??????????]

Whats JA mean?

[Pollwatch99]

JA is Job Approval

[A18]

Great news out of Ohio.

I love the 53% job approval in Minnesota as well.

[Pollwatch99]

Like both FL and OH

[JNB]

 Do not count chickens before they hatch so they say. The Rasmussen poll is I believe LVs, not RVs, and I recall that the polls here in 2000 over estimated Bushes support by 3-7% over Gore. Also of note is that these polls are 7, not 3 day averages.

[AuH2O]

All look pretty good.

[A18]

No one's counting chickens until Tuesday.

[J. J.]

The Phila Inquirer with Temple University gave Kerry 48% Bush 47% on 10/22, published today.  SS =1488  MoE=2.6.

That is close.

[Pollwatch99]

 Do not count chickens before they hatch so they say. The Rasmussen poll is I believe LVs, not RVs, and I recall that the polls here in 2000 over estimated Bushes support by 3-7% over Gore. Also of note is that these polls are 7, not 3 day averages.

not counting all chickens.  You can add to the criticism that they use phone machines and the sample is about 80 per night.  Generally, it shows trends, absolute number may not be accurate.  Basically, most trends moving to Bush.  Recently FL/OH were tied, PA and MI were larger leads for Kerry.  So general drift is towards Bush.  Only place really static is MN.  Bush tied or +1 for a long period. 

[Giant Saguaro]

Generally good news, especially with the JA's. Bush could grab PA, as I've been saying, as well as MN. Not saying it's over or he's won everything, but good news.