If Ron Paul was a serious candidate, would he do better in VT than...

[King]

Vermont was a traditional Republican state before the 90s.  New Hampshire has always been called a traditional Republican/Libertarian state, but Vermont is pretty similar in that regards.  Thomas Dewey and Co.'s non-interventionalist military, high on civil liberties, etc. are big there.

They seem like they'd find the Paul message to be more desirable than the current Republican base message, even if they have swong considerably Democratic in recent years.

Now, obviously Paul is a weasily old coot who couldn't get more than 40% of the popular vote nationwide if that and wouldn't be considered, but in a close and serious election that inspired high turnout, I could see Vermont tightening into a lean or swing state with a Paul-type candidate.

[Free Palestine]

With a serious libertarian candidate (not saying Paul isn't serious) I could see Maine and New Hampshire going that way, maybe Vermont, I don't know.  They did elect a self-described democratic socialist, after all.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Yes, a serious candidate like Ron Paul would do much better in Vermont than joke candidates like Romney, Palin, Thune, Huckabee, Gingrich, etc. The anti-war movement is very strong there.

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

A...young, charismatic libertarian who doesn't come off to non libertarians as a crackpot probably could stand a chance at carrying VT, or at least a lot more of a chance than, saying George W. Bush.

However, that libertarian would have to be careful not to lose the South in the process, which could happen.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

It's not like the Democrats are that anti-war either. I think the demographics in the state have changed more than we give it credit for. Many yuppies from the Boston and Massachusetts area have moved out there, creating a much more liberal voter base. I doubt the GOP will ever compete there for a long time, even if they did run an anti-war candidate like Paul. He isn't tearing up the polls in New Hampshire, Vermont or Maine. You'd think he'd do much better in NH than most others if they still believed in that message.

[Derek]

Hmm he might do a little bit better say 40-45% but no greater than that these days.

[Phony Moderate]

A...young, charismatic libertarian who doesn't come off to non libertarians as a crackpot probably could stand a chance at carrying VT, or at least a lot more of a chance than, saying George W. Bush.

Jesse Ventura or Gary Nolan?

[Eraserhead]

Not really. I doubt he'd do better than other Republicans anywhere beyond maybe a few western states like Montana, Wyoming, etc.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Not really. I doubt he'd do better than other Republicans anywhere beyond maybe a few western states like Montana, Wyoming, etc.

Paul would perform better in Western states and in upper Northeastern states.

[California8429]

If he was real serious he'd win VT, Maine and do strong in New Hampshire

[Derek]

I don't think Vermont will go GOP because the same leftwing tactics will be used to portray an ordinary individual to an elitist Republican who flies on jets and helicopters like RFK Jr.

[Eraserhead]

If he was real serious he'd win VT, Maine and do strong in New Hampshire

Uh huh

[California8429]

If he was real serious he'd win VT, Maine and do strong in New Hampshire

Uh huh

whops, I thought the question was for the GOP primary.

He'd do better yes, win, no

[Derek]

Wasn't VT somewhat close in the Bush-Gore race. To my recollection it was about 49-43 for Gore and as expected Nader did well as an independent.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Wasn't VT somewhat close in the Bush-Gore race. To my recollection it was about 49-43 for Gore and as expected Nader did well as an independent.

Gore won it by 10 points. He just barely broke 50%, indubitably due to Nader.

The GOP still won the Northeast Kingdom though.

[Derek]

Wasn't VT somewhat close in the Bush-Gore race. To my recollection it was about 49-43 for Gore and as expected Nader did well as an independent.

Gore won it by 10 points. He just barely broke 50%, indubitably due to Nader.

The GOP still won the Northeast Kingdom though.

You mean Northeast Vermont? That's still very close for a federal election in Vermont. Kerry won by 20 and Obama won by 34 or so.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Wasn't VT somewhat close in the Bush-Gore race. To my recollection it was about 49-43 for Gore and as expected Nader did well as an independent.

Gore won it by 10 points. He just barely broke 50%, indubitably due to Nader.

The GOP still won the Northeast Kingdom though.

You mean Northeast Vermont? That's still very close for a federal election in Vermont. Kerry won by 20 and Obama won by 34 or so.

Obama won by 37.

Bush only took 40.7% of the vote in 2000. The margin would have been greater without Nader.

[Derek]

It's been trending left in each election since 1972 from the looks of it.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

It's been trending left in each election since 1972 from the looks of it.

Actually only since 2000. According to Atlas, Vermont was actually trending Democratic in 1972, but Republican in 1976, 1984, and 2000.

[Derek]

You're right. Overall though I have no idea what happened. I don't think the fact it was a New England Republican state before can account for the trend by itself. Howard Dean didn't turn it around either.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

You're right. Overall though I have no idea what happened. I don't think the fact it was a New England Republican state before can account for the trend by itself. Howard Dean didn't turn it around either.

George W. Bush is probably the man to credit for turning Vermont into an unwinnable state for Republicans. Of course, it's not the only one.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Vermont isn't going to have lots of love both a socialist and Ron Paul.

[Derek]

Wasn't VT somewhat close in the Bush-Gore race. To my recollection it was about 49-43 for Gore and as expected Nader did well as an independent.

Gore won it by 10 points. He just barely broke 50%, indubitably due to Nader.

The GOP still won the Northeast Kingdom though.

You mean Northeast Vermont? That's still very close for a federal election in Vermont. Kerry won by 20 and Obama won by 34 or so.

Obama won by 37.

Bush only took 40.7% of the vote in 2000. The margin would have been greater without Nader.

I checked and think I was confusing it with Maine. Speaking of which, has anyone seen Obama's numbers there?

[Free Trade is managed by the invisible hand.]

vermont is more culturally liberal than texas, and thus Ron Paul would have to throw away all of his socially conservative views. Fore example i doubt someone who opposes the CRA could seriously get elected up their.

[Mechaman]

Vermont was a traditional Republican state before the 90s.  New Hampshire has always been called a traditional Republican/Libertarian state, but Vermont is pretty similar in that regards.  Thomas Dewey and Co.'s non-interventionalist military, high on civil liberties, etc. are big there.

They seem like they'd find the Paul message to be more desirable than the current Republican base message, even if they have swong considerably Democratic in recent years.

Now, obviously Paul is a weasily old coot who couldn't get more than 40% of the popular vote nationwide if that and wouldn't be considered, but in a close and serious election that inspired high turnout, I could see Vermont tightening into a lean or swing state with a Paul-type candidate.

Dewey Republicans=non-interventionist?
Lawl.