London Mayoral Election 2012

[Хahar 🤔]

Is it too late to find some way of replacing Livingstone with Lammy? Not that I have much trust in ComRes or even really in polls of London elections, but if over 10% of 2010 Labour voters are thinking about voting for Johnson... er... no, that is not good.

Livingstone will be like Mitterand in reverse.

In what sense exactly?

A number of victories followed by a number of defeats, rather than the other way around?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The election is in 2012?

I mentioned elsewhere that I'm no good at dates.

And, lo, the problem is solved.

[DL]

How old must Livingstone be now...I seem to remember hearing his name back in the 70s - he must be almost 80 by now.

[Leftbehind]

Is it too late to find some way of replacing Livingstone with Lammy? Not that I have much trust in ComRes or even really in polls of London elections, but if over 10% of 2010 Labour voters are thinking about voting for Johnson... er... no, that is not good.

Hopefully! Boris, a well-known figure as the loveable buffoon (with the ensuing significant personal vote) who makes sure to appear a maverick, willing to rail against his party's policies to protect London (social cleansing comment etc) was always going to attract a minority of Labour voters...well that is until David Lammy's his match(!)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My thinking is that a brick would be polling stronger right now than Livingstone (because a brick doesn't have his negatives, and all his electoral positives don't matter greatly now that Labour is in opposition) and that as the Hon Member for Tottenham has had only good publicity recently, he might do better than a brick...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How old must Livingstone be now...I seem to remember hearing his name back in the 70s - he must be almost 80 by now.

He's 66. Like a lot who were on the Hard Left back in the day, he started out young.

[Leftbehind]

See, I really don't see Livingstone as the electoral poison you clearly regard him as. Boris is a formidable opponent, which any old Labour 'brick' would easily lose against imo. Labour needs someone as charismatic and equal to Boris in stature if they're to win - which limits their pool down to Ken, as far as I can see (Lammy's nowhere near applicable in this regard).

I think in full electoral drive it's not beyond Ken to win back what will be ultimately shallow reasons for departure in that tenth, reminding them of what Boris' complicity in the government's policies and what they mean (with a few quotes of him in full banker-loving mode).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't think he's electoral poison, as such. If he were, then he would have been hammered in 2008 and he wasn't. The problem is that he's extremely polarising and (of course) now has the longest personal record of any politician in the country. What's worse is that a small but sizeable section of the normal London Labour base vote is in the anti-Livingstone camp. In 2008 anything he lost from the normal base he made up in other ways (and still lost, but that's not the point). In 2012 that won't be the case, because most such people would be voting Labour anyway.

I don't think that his situation is impossible (as you rightly point out, Johnson is the property of the City and the City is not so very popular these days, and there's also London's mid-term anti-incumbent-government traditions to remember) but he'll find it harder than a fresh face might have done.

[© tweed]

any new developments here?

[Leftbehind]

The recent Ashcroft polling of Feltham and Heston included a question RE the Mayoral election, with the figures being

45% Johnson (+3.7%)
44% Livingstone (+6.5%)
7% Paddick (-3.6)

An improvement upon 2008, but little comfort when it still has Boris ahead in a Labour-favourable seat, and alongside these figures has Labour winning the upcoming by-election by 22% lead over the Tories.

[Leftbehind]

Seems Ken's promised a London Living Rent and to "actually intervene" in the market; the Tories seem to be contesting that this is outside the remit of Mayor. Who's talking sh**te? It's gotta be a vote winner, in either case.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/4676

Ken's back ahead!

[Leftbehind]

Almost want Ken to lose now so he can contest the next Labour leadership election.

[You kip if you want to...]

Why vote for someone who's gonna resign midterm anyway? (Before anyone says it, yes I know Blair did it.)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/wintour-and-watt/2012/jan/24/boris-livingstone

[MaxQue]

In case of vacancy of London mayorship, what happens?

A by-election?
GLA appoints someone?

[You kip if you want to...]

In case of vacancy of London mayorship, what happens?

A by-election?
GLA appoints someone?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deputy_Mayor_of_London

[Leftbehind]

Worth mentioning there was a ComRes released on Monday adding weight to Yougov's swing to Ken:

Livingstone 46%(+6)
Johnson 44%(-4)
Paddick 5%(-2)
Others 5%

Run-off:
Livingstone 51%(+5)
Johnson 49%(-5)

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/02/08/ken-livingstons-bizarre-rant_n_1262981.html?ref=uk

[Peter the Lefty]

A new poll from YouGov:
Johnson: 49%
Livingstone: 41%
Paddick: 5% (lol)
Other: 4%

Between Johnson and Livingstone:
Johnson: 54%
Livingstone: 46%

I hope Johnson wins so that Ed Miliband has to resign and let someone who can actually win an election take over the Labour party, though I'm sure he'll try and paint it as Ken Livingstone's fault, not his (which it actually would be). 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How on earth would a Livingstone defeat caused by Livingstone's personal failings (because if he loses that is why he'll lose) be Miliband's fault? In some polls as much as a fifth of Labour's General Election vote in London intends to vote for Johnson; how is that Miliband's fault? Of course Livingstone isn't dead in the water, especially given this government's travails, but...

Silly old bugger should have mounted his pony and headed off into the sunset when he lost last time. If there's a shortage of credible city-wide candidates for London Labour (and there is) then half the problem is that...

[You kip if you want to...]

Would anyone else (like me) have preferred Oona anyway?

[Silent Hunter]

Would anyone else (like me) have preferred Oona anyway?

I would - I voted for her.

[You kip if you want to...]

Would anyone else (like me) have preferred Oona anyway?

I would - I voted for her.

I definately would've if I was a Londoner.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

She would have been a potential disaster for a different set of reasons.

[minionofmidas]

If that was the main alternative, it's highly understandable that Livingstone ran again and was nominated.