6/8 Primaries - AR, CA, IA, ME, MT, NV, NJ, ND, SC, SD, VA (results links in OP)
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  6/8 Primaries - AR, CA, IA, ME, MT, NV, NJ, ND, SC, SD, VA (results links in OP)
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Author Topic: 6/8 Primaries - AR, CA, IA, ME, MT, NV, NJ, ND, SC, SD, VA (results links in OP)  (Read 39415 times)
JohnnyLongtorso
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« on: June 03, 2010, 07:08:46 AM »
« edited: June 08, 2010, 05:40:51 PM by JohnnyLongtorso »

Here we go.

Arkansas (runoff)
- Senate (D) - Blanche Lincoln v. Bill Halter.
- AR-01 (D) - Chad Causey v. Tim Wooldridge.
- AR-02 (D) - Joyce Elliott v. Robbie Wills.
- AR-03 (R) - Cecile Bledsoe v. Steve Womack.

California
- Governor - Jerry Brown is more or less unopposed on the D side. Some nobodies named Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner are running on the R side.
- Senator - Barbara Boxer is also more or less unopposed. Republicans have Carly Fiorina, Tom Campbell, and Chuck DeVore.
- Initiatives - Prop 14 is the one to watch here, it creates a "top-two" primary system akin to the one Washington uses.
- CA-11 - Four Republicans are facing off for the right to take on Jerry McNerney. David Harmer, who ran against Jerry McNerney in CA-10 last year, is the Washington establishment's pick, but there are also vintner Brad Goehring, businesswoman/autism advocate Elizabeth Emken, and some guy named Tony Amador who will probably run a distant fourth.
- CA-19 - In this open Republican seat, all the action is unsurprisingly on the Republican side, where State Sen. Jeff Denham, ex-Congressman Dick Pombo, Fresno City Council member Larry Westerlund, and former Fresno Mayor Jim Patterson are running. There are two Democrats running, but neither has raised any significant money.
- CA-20 - Just a quick note that Jim Costa, who voted against health care, has a primary challenger. He didn't raise much money, but it will be interesting to see if Costa gets a lukewarm Larry Kissell level of support.
- CA-33 - Open Democratic seat, which probably won't be exciting, as Assembly Speaker Karen Bass is the only serious candidate running.
- CA-36 - Democrat Jane Harman is facing a challenge from Marcy Winograd. She's probably not in much danger.
- CA-42 - I haven't heard a thing about this, but Republican Gary Miller is being challenged by CPA Phil Liberatore, who has pumped a half million of his own money into the race. His fate will likely be similar to other generic rich guy challengers, like the one that flamed out trying to knock off Patrick McHenry in North Carolina.

Georgia (runoff)
- GA-09 - Republican state legislators Tom Graves and Lee Hawkins face off in the runoff for Nathan Deal's seat. Is there any difference between these two?

Iowa - 35% threshold to win a primary, otherwise nominee is chosen by convention
- Governor - ex-Gov. Terry Branstad is the frontrunner to take on Democrat Chet Culver in the fall. His opposition consists of Bob Vander Platts and ex-State Rep. Rod Roberts.
- Senator - Roxanne Conlin shouldn't have much trouble winning the Democratic primary to take on Chuck Grassley in November. She faces a couple of former state legislators who haven't raised much money.
- IA-02 - There's quite the cast of characters running to take on two-term Rep. Dave Loebsack. His 2008 opponent, ophthalmologist Marianette Miller-Meeks is running, as are two of the three Republicans who ran for the Republican Senate nomination in 2008, Christopher Reed and Steve Rathje. There's also a businessman named Rob Gettemy.
- IA-03 - Seven Republicans are vying for the nomination here; the frontrunner is former wrestling coach Jim Gibbons (no, not that Jim Gibbons), but State Sen. Brad Zaun is well-liked among conservatives.

Maine
- Governor - Half the state is running. The Democratic frontrunners seem to be State Senate President Libby Mitchell and ex-AG Steve Rowe. On the Republican side, businessman Les Otten appears to be the favorite, although State Sen. Peter Mills shouldn't be counted out.

Montana
- MT-AL - Not likely to be competitive in November, but four Democrats are running here, and Denny Rehberg has two challengers, although neither has raised a lot of money.

Nevada
- Governor - In any other year, this would be the hot primary. Gov. Jim Gibbons is likely to be knocked off in the Republican primary by former judge Brian Sandoval, while Rory Reid should have no trouble dispatching his lone primary opponent.
- Senate - Do I even need to go through this clown car of a Republican primary? Teabagger/Club for Growther Sharron Angle seems to have the edge at the last minute, but ex-state party chair/bartering expert Sue Lowden and Danny "Remember me?" Tarkanian are close behind.
- NV-01 - There is a staggering eight-Republican field looking to lose to Shelley Berkeley. Businessman Craig Lake has raised quite a bit of cash, and should win easily.
- NV-03 - Ex-State Sen. Joe Heck should win the Republican nomination to go up against freshman Dina Titus in November.

New Jersey
- Nothing to report here, New Jersey's machine-driven politics tend to ensure Congressional primaries remain uncompetitive. The only thing to note is the Republicans' recruitment of rich people to run in NJ-03 (Jon Runyon), NJ-06 (Diane Gooch), NJ-09 (John Aslanian), and NJ-12 (Scott Sipprelle).

North Dakota
- ND-AL - State Rep. Rick Berg should easily win the primary to take on Democratic Rep. Earl Pomeroy.

South Carolina - runoff state (50%)
- Governor - Oh, Lord. "Scandal-plagued" State Rep. Nikki Haley looks to be in front, while Attorney General Henry McMaster, Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, and Rep. Gresham Barrett are duking it out for the second-place slot in the runoff. For the Democrats, it looks like State Sen. Robert Ford will play spoiler, dragging Education Superintendant Jim Rex and State Sen. Vincent Sheheen into a runoff.
- Senator - Some nobody is challenging Jim DeMint, while Charleston County Councilor Vic Rawl should easily win the nomination over Alvin Greene.
- SC-01 - Nine Republicans are running for this open seat; State Rep. Tim Scott seems to be out front, but may end up in a runoff with someone else, probably Tumpy Campbell or Paul Thurmond.
- SC-03 - Six Republicans are running here; State Reps. Jeff Duncan and Rex Rice and businessman Joe Grimaud have raised the most money.
- SC-04 - Republican Rep. Bob Inglis is in a heap of trouble over his whole "I'm a sane conservative" act. Solicitor Trey Gowdy is looking likely to drag him into a runoff, if not win outright.

South Dakota - runoff state (35%)
- Governor - State Sen. Scott Heidepriem is unopposed on the Democratic side, while Republicans have five candidates running; Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard would seem to be the favorite, but State Sens. Gordon Howie and Dave Knudson are also contenders.
- SD-AL - Secretary of State Chris Nelson and State Reps. Blake Curd and Kristi Noem are running for the Republican nomination to take on Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin. Curd has raised the most money, but Nelson is the only one with a statewide profile.

Virginia
- VA-01 - Republican Rob Wittman is getting teabagged by crackpot Catherine Crabill. She's raised no money, but the extreme right loves her for some reason.
- VA-02 - A six-Republican field is vying for the right to take on Glenn Nye, but Scott Rigell has the Republican establishment backing. Navy vets Ben Loyola and Scott Taylor, and Army Reservist Bert Mizusawa will probably all finish in a distant second-place clump.
- VA-05 - Seven Republicans here, with Democrat Tom Perriello the opponent in November. Again, State Sen. Robert Hurt is the establishment pick, while Albemarle County Supervisor Ken Boyd and various and sundry teabaggers will be left in the dust.
- VA-11 - Gerry Connolly's opponent will be one of two Republicans: Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity and businessman / 2008 nominee Keith Fimian. Fimian has the money and conservative credentials, but Herrity is better-positioned to win in November.

Anything else to watch?

Results pages:

AP sites: AR | CA | GA | IA | ME | MT | NV | NJ | ND | SC | SD | VA

South Carolina State Election Commission
Virginia State Board of Elections

Poll closing times (eastern):

7 - Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia
8 - Maine, New Jersey
8:30 - Arkansas
9 - South Dakota
10 - Iowa, Montana, Nevada
11 - California, North Dakota
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #1 on: June 03, 2010, 10:09:25 AM »

New Jersey
- Nothing to report here, New Jersey's machine-driven politics tend to ensure Congressional primaries remain uncompetitive. The only thing to note is the Republicans' recruitment of rich people to run in NJ-03 (Jon Runyon), NJ-06 (Diane Gooch), NJ-09 (John Aslanian), and NJ-12 (Scott Sipprelle).

Leonard Lance is also facing a challenge from the hard right in NJ-07.

But yeah, as per the New Jersey usual, the fix is in.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2 on: June 03, 2010, 10:33:23 AM »
« Edited: June 03, 2010, 10:38:44 AM by Eraserhead »

With all of these states up next Tuesday, one would hope for a lot more interesting races than there actually are. It should still be a fun night though, especially if Lincoln bites the dust.
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politicalchick20
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« Reply #3 on: June 03, 2010, 03:51:26 PM »

I think Jane Harman might have a chance of going down, given her role in the Bush wiretapping scandal ("This conversation doesn't exist.").
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #4 on: June 03, 2010, 04:00:15 PM »


South Carolina
- Lieutenant Governor - Result in the GOP primary will be a runoff between any two of Ard, Connor, and Richter.  Kitzman hasn't been able to raise enough to run a competitive campaign.

Insider Advantage polled this race along with the Governor's races and got:
Lt. Gov. (R)
Richter 16.4%
Ard 13.7%
Connor 11.3%
Kitzman 5.1%
no opinion: 53.6%

- Attorney General - Another race likely to head to a runoff, as all three GOP candidates, Bolchoz, Lord, and Wilson, are reasonably well-funded.

- Treasurer - Only two GOP candidates, so no runoff, but the contest between Chellis and Curtis is arguably a nastier and dirtier one than anything involving Haley.

- Comptroller General - Eckstrom should easily beat Meilinger for renomination, but could get caught in the backwash from Haley-gate.  (A few months ago, the same Will Folks of Haley-gate fame released emails between Eckstrom and Superintendent candidate Kelly Payne indicating a romantic relationship. Eckstrom was separated from his wife at the time, and Payne is divorced, so it's a stretch to call it an affair.)

-Superintendent of Education -  Zais has had the most visible campaign, and I'd be surprised if he doesn't at least make the runoff in this six candidate GOP race.  If I had to guess, his likely runoff opponent will be Nelsen, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Payne make the runoff.  There's also a Democratic primary that's attracted little notice, and which I expect Holleman to win.
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« Reply #5 on: June 03, 2010, 07:57:50 PM »

What are your predictions for 6/8 primaries?

Mine (The one's im familiar with)

Arkansas
Bill Halter          53%
Blanche Lincoln 47%

South Carolina
Nikki Haley will win a plurality

Nevada
Sharron Angle will beat her opponents by a few points

CA
Whitman and Fiorana>50%
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Lunar
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« Reply #6 on: June 03, 2010, 07:58:59 PM »
« Edited: June 03, 2010, 08:00:37 PM by Lunar »

Fiorina with over 50%?  Isn't she at like <40% in polling at the moment?  I mean, she'll still win, but it's pretty bold to predict she'll get beyond a plurality.

edit: I guess I should admit it's more possible than I gave it credit for here above.  Still, I would be surprised.
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Meeker
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« Reply #7 on: June 03, 2010, 08:01:22 PM »

5/18 was much more super IMO.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #8 on: June 03, 2010, 08:08:21 PM »

Primaries should really have only one thread to keep the board from becoming too cluttered.  Just imo.
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Lunar
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« Reply #9 on: June 03, 2010, 08:12:39 PM »

Primaries should really have only one thread to keep the board from becoming too cluttered.  Just imo.

One thread a week, especially with Johnny's superb analysis, should is more than reasonable. 
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #10 on: June 03, 2010, 09:26:29 PM »

The 8th is the last big primary day for a while. Between then and August there are only three more states (Utah, Georgia and Oklahoma) and some runoffs. I think it's worthwhile for big multi-state days; there's definitely no need for individual threads for the smaller primary dates.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #11 on: June 03, 2010, 09:45:05 PM »

     Meg Whitman a nobody? With the amount of money she's pumped in, she's practically more recognizeable than Jesus among Californian voters at this point.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #12 on: June 04, 2010, 06:50:49 AM »

     Meg Whitman a nobody? With the amount of money she's pumped in, she's practically more recognizeable than Jesus among Californian voters at this point.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irony
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #13 on: June 04, 2010, 07:46:46 AM »

     Meg Whitman a nobody? With the amount of money she's pumped in, she's practically more recognizeable than Jesus among Californian voters at this point.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irony

Ah, an American who's heard of the concept.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #14 on: June 04, 2010, 09:51:55 AM »

The 8th is the last big primary day for a while. Between then and August there are only three more states (Utah, Georgia and Oklahoma) and some runoffs. I think it's worthwhile for big multi-state days; there's definitely no need for individual threads for the smaller primary dates.

Yeah, there won't be another state worth really watching until Arizona comes up imo.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #15 on: June 04, 2010, 10:28:55 AM »

     Meg Whitman a nobody? With the amount of money she's pumped in, she's practically more recognizeable than Jesus among Californian voters at this point.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irony

Ah, an American who's heard of the concept.

Note that he's not a hardcore libertarian.
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Meeker
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« Reply #16 on: June 04, 2010, 11:59:08 AM »

The 8th is the last big primary day for a while. Between then and August there are only three more states (Utah, Georgia and Oklahoma) and some runoffs. I think it's worthwhile for big multi-state days; there's definitely no need for individual threads for the smaller primary dates.

Yeah, there won't be another state worth really watching until Arizona comes up imo.

The Utah primary will pick the next senator.

And the Georgia gubernatorial primaries are competitive on both sides.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #17 on: June 04, 2010, 12:20:45 PM »

The 8th is the last big primary day for a while. Between then and August there are only three more states (Utah, Georgia and Oklahoma) and some runoffs. I think it's worthwhile for big multi-state days; there's definitely no need for individual threads for the smaller primary dates.

Yeah, there won't be another state worth really watching until Arizona comes up imo.

The Utah primary will pick the next senator.

And the Georgia gubernatorial primaries are competitive on both sides.

Yeah, but I don't care much about those.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #18 on: June 04, 2010, 12:24:09 PM »

New Jersey
- Nothing to report here, New Jersey's machine-driven politics tend to ensure Congressional primaries remain uncompetitive. The only thing to note is the Republicans' recruitment of rich people to run in NJ-03 (Jon Runyon), NJ-06 (Diane Gooch), NJ-09 (John Aslanian), and NJ-12 (Scott Sipprelle).

Leonard Lance is also facing a challenge from the hard right in NJ-07.

But yeah, as per the New Jersey usual, the fix is in.

Note, with Runyon, the idea isn't really to recruit a rich person, but a well known former football player who was very popular while a member of the Eagles.
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Meeker
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« Reply #19 on: June 04, 2010, 03:50:43 PM »

Something odd going on in Garland County, Arkansas: The folks running the runoff election there have decided to only open two polling places for the entire county. Garland County is the most populous county in the state that Bill Halter won.

My guess is that this has something to do with budget cuts and isn't inherently sinister (although I guess I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out it was). Not good news for Halter either way though.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #20 on: June 04, 2010, 04:02:03 PM »

It's Hot Springs.  Of course, it could be sinister.
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Rowan
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« Reply #21 on: June 04, 2010, 04:46:26 PM »

NJ-03 can be taken off of any watch list if Runyan doesn't win the primary.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #22 on: June 04, 2010, 05:06:39 PM »

NJ-03 can be taken off of any watch list if Runyan doesn't win the primary.

     What would you say the odds are of that happening?
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Rowan
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« Reply #23 on: June 04, 2010, 05:17:49 PM »

NJ-03 can be taken off of any watch list if Runyan doesn't win the primary.

     What would you say the odds are of that happening?

Too high for my liking.
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GOP732
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« Reply #24 on: June 04, 2010, 05:48:22 PM »


New Jersey
- Nothing to report here, New Jersey's machine-driven politics tend to ensure Congressional primaries remain uncompetitive. The only thing to note is the Republicans' recruitment of rich people to run in NJ-03 (Jon Runyon), NJ-06 (Diane Gooch), NJ-09 (John Aslanian), and NJ-12 (Scott Sipprelle).


I still dont know who I'm voting for, Gooch has the money to defeat Pallone, but Anna Little is more conservative. Id just want to see Pallone gone, he has not made it a secret he wants to run for the senate someday.
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