6/8 Primaries - AR, CA, IA, ME, MT, NV, NJ, ND, SC, SD, VA (results links in OP)

[Sam Spade]

Haley at 48%, can she pull it off tonight?

Doubtful, though she may do well enough to cause the other three to concede and avoid a runoff.  (Note: Under SC law, it is not enough for whoever comes in second to concede, all three need to concede.  I recall one time the fourth place finisher forced a runoff because he wouldn't concede.)

That sounds like something right up Andre Bauer's alley, eh...

[Lunar]

Haley at 48%, can she pull it off tonight?

Doubtful, though she may do well enough to cause the other three to concede and avoid a runoff.  (Note: Under SC law, it is not enough for whoever comes in second to concede, all three need to concede.  I recall one time the fourth place finisher forced a runoff because he wouldn't concede.)

I can't count on Bauer conceding.  


edit: DAMN SPADE BEAT ME TO IT

[cinyc]

There are a few precincts reporting in NJ. Runyan is up 64-36 in NJ-03.

Yea, just saw that. Still nothing in ME though. I am more interested in the ME Governor's race, especially the GOP primary.

My guess is Runyan wins this.  The Ocean County part of the district is in the NYC TV market - and kind of a mix of Giants and Eagles fans.  The other two counties are in the Philly TV market and chock full of Eagles fans.  He should run better there.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

New Jersey is actually proving to be more interesting than I expected. Diane Gooch is trailing her opponent 54-46 in NJ-06 (Monmouth is the only county reporting), Scott Sipprelle is losing 55-45 in NJ-12, and Runyon is only up 56-44 in NJ-03.

[Sam Spade]

Once again, is this AR early voting?

If so, and the day-of numbers are anywhere in the same ballpark, this one is likely to be too close to call.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Lincoln-Halter is early voting numbers, right?

Most of them are. Some of today's are now coming in.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I wonder why the AP isn't calling the Comptroller General's race yet.  Granted, Eckstrom's slipped from 70% to 69%, but even in the counties with a throw-the-bums out mentality this year, his worst performance is still 63% and half the precincts are in.

[Sam Spade]

Hmmm...  Scott in with only one precinct left.

Halter 52%, Lincoln 48%

First round was 46%, 34%, 20%.

If this were to continue in other places, Lincoln will win.

[Dan the Roman]

ME is going to take some time. Most areas are still handcounted, and because it is down at the town rather than the county level, they tend to come in batches. That said, the primaries on both sides are complete messes.

The GOP one is, as usual in Maine, the most important one. For all the talk of Maine being a blue state, moderate Republicans almost always beat liberal Democrats, and generally have a leg up on moderate ones. On the other hand, creationist crazies tend to go down in flames quite spectacularly. Peter Mills almost certanly would have won the general had he won the primary in 2006, and either he or Steve Abbott would be favorites if they pull through tonight. Les Otten has money, but self-funders have not done well in the state recently, and he has moved somewhat to the right in the primary. Paul LePage would be creamed in Portland and Cumberland county. Of the others, not quite worth going through them

In terms of support, Mills will have most of the liberals, at least those who vote in the GOP primary. Abbott is the candidate of the Collins machine, Otten, the candidate of those unhappy with it. LePage represents the tea Party movement, which is odd because he has been a fairly liberal mayor of a college/factory town.

I still think Abbott should have ran for ME-01, where he would be the favorite in the primary and have had decent shot at beating Pingree. I am hoping Mills pulls it through though him or Abbott would probably win the general. I think Otten might even have a chance but less of one then Mills or Abbott.

Results starting to trickle in from AR. Lincoln up 53-47. She was up 57-43, you can see where this is going.

From a GOp perspective, Abbott absolutely should have run for ME-01. The problem is that there is a bit of moderate infighting between the Collins/Northern Maine faction and the Snowe/Urban faction. In 2006 this let Chandler Woodcock win with 38% of the vote, with the Collins-backed Emerey costing Mills the nomination. This time Mills is running again, feeling he was cheated out of 2006, while Abbott thinks its his year. They may well end up just splitting the moderate vote again. And Maine is a state with a substantial moderate vote in the GOP primary.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Damn, that old Holloway disappearance is blocking up the majour news networks and C-Span is concerned with the oil spill right now.  There's honestly nothing on television on the primaries.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Daugaard dominating in SD-Gov, Nelson and Noem neck and neck in SD-AL.

[cinyc]

New Jersey is actually proving to be more interesting than I expected. Diane Gooch is trailing her opponent 54-46 in NJ-06 (Monmouth is the only county reporting), Scott Sipprelle is losing 55-45 in NJ-12, and Runyon is only up 56-44 in NJ-03.

What's likely going to be Runyan's best part of the district - the Philly TV market - is barely in.

[Lunar]

I hear word (per tweets) that the Carly celebration ballroom has almost NO wireless service.

[Eraserhead]

Hmmm...  Scott in with only one precinct left.

Halter 52%, Lincoln 48%

First round was 46%, 34%, 20%.

If this were to continue in other places, Lincoln will win.

Ugh... what the hell? Are the Morrison people actually voting based on ideology?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

AP's called Sheheen, and Haley is back up to 48%.

In the Lt. Gov. race, it's safe now to assume Ard makes the runoff, but Richter might overtake Connor for second.

Looks like I was right in the first place about there being a Lord/Wilson runoff for Att. Gen.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

ME is going to take some time. Most areas are still handcounted, and because it is down at the town rather than the county level, they tend to come in batches. That said, the primaries on both sides are complete messes.

The GOP one is, as usual in Maine, the most important one. For all the talk of Maine being a blue state, moderate Republicans almost always beat liberal Democrats, and generally have a leg up on moderate ones. On the other hand, creationist crazies tend to go down in flames quite spectacularly. Peter Mills almost certanly would have won the general had he won the primary in 2006, and either he or Steve Abbott would be favorites if they pull through tonight. Les Otten has money, but self-funders have not done well in the state recently, and he has moved somewhat to the right in the primary. Paul LePage would be creamed in Portland and Cumberland county. Of the others, not quite worth going through them

In terms of support, Mills will have most of the liberals, at least those who vote in the GOP primary. Abbott is the candidate of the Collins machine, Otten, the candidate of those unhappy with it. LePage represents the tea Party movement, which is odd because he has been a fairly liberal mayor of a college/factory town.

I still think Abbott should have ran for ME-01, where he would be the favorite in the primary and have had decent shot at beating Pingree. I am hoping Mills pulls it through though him or Abbott would probably win the general. I think Otten might even have a chance but less of one then Mills or Abbott.

Results starting to trickle in from AR. Lincoln up 53-47. She was up 57-43, you can see where this is going.

From a GOp perspective, Abbott absolutely should have run for ME-01. The problem is that there is a bit of moderate infighting between the Collins/Northern Maine faction and the Snowe/Urban faction. In 2006 this let Chandler Woodcock win with 38% of the vote, with the Collins-backed Emerey costing Mills the nomination. This time Mills is running again, feeling he was cheated out of 2006, while Abbott thinks its his year. They may well end up just splitting the moderate vote again. And Maine is a state with a substantial moderate vote in the GOP primary.

Why are they fighting each other. They should work together before the ME GOP gets destroyed or is pushed rightword.

Haley back at 48% in SC.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Anybody have a good channel for primary coverage?

Seriously, the only thing I could get was Fox Business.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

3% in for Maine... LePage leads Otten 36-25, while Rowe leads Mitchell 34-29.

[Sam Spade]

Hmmm...  Scott in with only one precinct left.

Halter 52%, Lincoln 48%

First round was 46%, 34%, 20%.

If this were to continue in other places, Lincoln will win.

Ugh... what the hell? Are the Morrison people actually voting based on ideology?

Well, if it continues (still way too early, but this is why I asked if it was early voting, because if so, it would mean a whole lot more), my conclusion would be...

The outside progressive groups f-ed Halter in AR.  Or the state Dems had it out for him.  Wouldn't be the first time this occurred, btw.

[Lunar]

3% in for Maine... LePage leads Otten 36-25, while Rowe leads Mitchell 34-29.

Yeah no one knows who anyone is in Maine, or has any opinion about who they want to win.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

With 13 of 17 precincts reporting, it looks like the incumbent K. Kelly will be defeated by B. Chumley in the SC House 35 race in Spartanburg Co. as the current margin is 62-38, while in SC House 38 (also in Spartanburg) with 8 of 12 precincts in it looks like the incumbent Millwood will be forced into a runoff.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Does anyone here got good live election coverage? (TV or internet, preferably TV)

[Lunar]

Does anyone here got good live election coverage? (TV or internet, preferably TV)

TV??

[Kalimantan]

Hmmm...  Scott in with only one precinct left.

Halter 52%, Lincoln 48%

First round was 46%, 34%, 20%.

If this were to continue in other places, Lincoln will win.

Ugh... what the hell? Are the Morrison people actually voting based on ideology?

Well, if it continues (still way too early, but this is why I asked if it was early voting, because if so, it would mean a whole lot more), my conclusion would be...

The outside progressive groups f-ed Halter in AR.  Or the state Dems had it out for him.  Wouldn't be the first time this occurred, btw.

Well its 134 votes to 126, compared to 690 v 510 v 291 last time. Not much to read into that, other than turnout is way down, or the remaining precinct is where all the votes are

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Does anyone here got good live election coverage? (TV or internet, preferably TV)

TV??

Honestly, the only thing I got is Fox Business (which is only talking about CA right now).

The other networks are busy with the oil spill or that kidnapping back in 05.