6/8 Primaries - AR, CA, IA, ME, MT, NV, NJ, ND, SC, SD, VA (results links in OP)

[Sam Spade]

Primaries should really have only one thread to keep the board from becoming too cluttered.  Just imo.

[Sam Spade]

     Meg Whitman a nobody? With the amount of money she's pumped in, she's practically more recognizeable than Jesus among Californian voters at this point.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irony

Ah, an American who's heard of the concept.

Note that he's not a hardcore libertarian.

[Sam Spade]

It's Hot Springs.  Of course, it could be sinister.

[Sam Spade]

Lincoln-Halter is early voting numbers, right?

[Sam Spade]

Not seeing anything surprising so far, except Rigell underperformed a lot IMO

[Sam Spade]

Haley at 48%, can she pull it off tonight?

Doubtful, though she may do well enough to cause the other three to concede and avoid a runoff.  (Note: Under SC law, it is not enough for whoever comes in second to concede, all three need to concede.  I recall one time the fourth place finisher forced a runoff because he wouldn't concede.)

That sounds like something right up Andre Bauer's alley, eh...

[Sam Spade]

Once again, is this AR early voting?

If so, and the day-of numbers are anywhere in the same ballpark, this one is likely to be too close to call.

[Sam Spade]

Hmmm...  Scott in with only one precinct left.

Halter 52%, Lincoln 48%

First round was 46%, 34%, 20%.

If this were to continue in other places, Lincoln will win.

[Sam Spade]

Hmmm...  Scott in with only one precinct left.

Halter 52%, Lincoln 48%

First round was 46%, 34%, 20%.

If this were to continue in other places, Lincoln will win.

Ugh... what the hell? Are the Morrison people actually voting based on ideology?

Well, if it continues (still way too early, but this is why I asked if it was early voting, because if so, it would mean a whole lot more), my conclusion would be...

The outside progressive groups f-ed Halter in AR.  Or the state Dems had it out for him.  Wouldn't be the first time this occurred, btw.

[Sam Spade]

Calhoun - done (CD-4)

Halter 58%, Lincoln 42%

Primary - H 47%, L 30%, M 24%

That isn't going to get the job done.  I need to see the larger counties first, of course, but splitting the Morrison vote = Halter loss.

[Sam Spade]

Btw, if anyone cares - Halter's going to go down by 5%-7%, possibly more.  You heard it hear first.

(I reserve the right to be completely wrong, of course - this is a very early call based on a lot of incomplete info, but I have to occasionally gamble so I can be vague at other points.  )

[Sam Spade]

Politico has Barrett and Haley at a runoff.
I'm very nervous about Halter. any news?

County by county comparison says he's in deep sh!t.  Nearly all counties have not reported fully (which is the ray of hope - given usual weird Southern voting patterns).

[Sam Spade]

Probably need to lower the Lincoln margin of victory to 3%-5% now with the more complete results I'm seeing which suggests even splitting going on, actually.

[Sam Spade]

The thing to remember in AR is that Halter gained over the course of the reporting in almost every county, so using anything other than fully reported counties as a baseline might be dangerious. For evidence, see Jefferson, which he trailed in by nearly 30 points with early votes in, but has improved to only trailing by 17. That said it looks bad.

I'm kind of confused by that. Wouldn't Black precincts, strong Lincoln areas, usually report later?

You never necessarily know what's going to report when in these areas.  I'm getting Dan's point though (should have followed the AR results more closely last time).  Point being, most of Pulaski is still out and that's a problem given the breakdown so far.  Even in Washington though, Lincoln only won by 8 last time and is now winning by 18.  Considering that the other counties look close to break-even to me, it is not encouraging for Halter supporters.

[Sam Spade]

Halter got some very strong showings in from Little River and Miller, two counties around Texarkana which were his strongest counties in the primary too.  Just fyi.

[Sam Spade]

Halter got some very strong showings in from Little River and Miller, two counties around Texarkana which were his strongest counties in the primary too.  Just fyi.

Lafayette, Sevier and Hempstead too.  Interesting.

[Sam Spade]

Well now, if Halter has a 59%-41% lead in Pulaski...

[Sam Spade]

Well now, if Halter has a 59%-41% lead in Pulaski...

lol

Lincoln won the first round there 52-40.  Halter is from there, of course.

[Sam Spade]

They updated it w/ correct Pulaski #s... Still 51-49 Lincoln.

They f-ed up the Pulaski numbers, as I suspected.

[Sam Spade]

Well now, if Halter has a 59%-41% lead in Pulaski...

lol

Lincoln won the first round there 52-40.  Halter is from there, of course.

The two big counties in NW Arkansas (Benton (Bentonville) & Washington (Fayetteville)) are totally out.  How did they vote the last time?  

Lincoln won both.  Benton by a lot.  Washington by the same as Pulaski, which is why I posted the above prediction many pages back.

[Sam Spade]

I'm calling Arkansas, for good this time, so long as someone doesn't f-up the data entry again.  

[Sam Spade]

FYI for Meeker

Garland County - 3,666 Lincoln (50%), 3,620 Halter (50%) (7,286 votes)

11,937 were cast in the first round.

[Sam Spade]

I'm calling Arkansas, for good this time, so long as someone doesn't f-up the data entry again.  

The unions just spent 10 million bucks against Lincoln in order to try to intimidate Dem "moderates" to toe the Pelosi/Obama line (not that I consider Lincoln a moderate, but just like most Arkansans, not into unions) proving that they are relatively toothless.  I wonder where else they can be induced to waste their money?  Maybe Crist?

It's Arkansas.  There was probably a certain contingent of the voters that took offense to the fact that the national Dems and these organizations were trying to tell them how to vote and, therefore voted, reflexively for Blanche even though they don't particularly like her.  Southerners do that sort of thing - which no one seems to understand except those who've lived there.  

Also, don't underestimate Bill Clinton repeating this message in his own way to those voters as only he can.

I wouldn't necessarily read too much into this elsewhere.

[Sam Spade]

Yes Sam, no doubt the Bubba factor was huge in a Dem primary. I wonder how the black vote went in Arkansas, with both Bubba and Obama supporting Lincoln.

Lincoln dominated the black vote first time around too.  Just moreso this time, it seems.

Southwest Arkansas swung against her hard, which I'm wondering if Al can explain.

[Sam Spade]

Yes Sam, no doubt the Bubba factor was huge in a Dem primary. I wonder how the black vote went in Arkansas, with both Bubba and Obama supporting Lincoln.

Lincoln dominated the black vote first time around too.  Just moreso this time, it seems.

Southwest Arkansas swung against her hard, which I'm wondering if Al can explain.

Hope is in Southwest Arkansas. Go figure. Doesn't Texarkana still have some yellow dog Dems who are not dead yet?

Yes.  They're much more alive in southwest Arkansas, though.