6/8 Primaries - AR, CA, IA, ME, MT, NV, NJ, ND, SC, SD, VA (results links in OP)

[Lunar]

Fiorina with over 50%?  Isn't she at like <40% in polling at the moment?  I mean, she'll still win, but it's pretty bold to predict she'll get beyond a plurality.

edit: I guess I should admit it's more possible than I gave it credit for here above.  Still, I would be surprised.

[Lunar]

Primaries should really have only one thread to keep the board from becoming too cluttered.  Just imo.

One thread a week, especially with Johnny's superb analysis, should is more than reasonable. 

[Lunar]

Another race worth watching is the California Attorney General race. It's a fight between the former Facebook executive Chris Kelly, whose only positive quality seems to be his large bank account, and San Francisco DA Kamala Harris.

Kelly doesn't run ads like this, which are a big plus: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WH18NlAKLMA

It should be said that vague references to your opponent's profession, without explicitly saying it, is probably a mistake for a race that's as low key as an AG primary.

[Lunar]

Also, the birther queen is running for CA SoS.  If the CA GOP ends up nominating Orly Taitz, even though whoever they nominate is guaranteed to lose, it will be hilar

[Lunar]

Also, the birther queen is running for CA SoS.  If the CA GOP ends up nominating Orly Taitz, even though whoever they nominate is guaranteed to lose, it will be hilar

A quite charismatic black man is running for SOS in CA in the GOP primary, Damon Dunn. You might want to check him out.

And you can check out Dunn's opponent, Orly Taitz, here.  To put it as charitably as possible, what Taitz needs, in addition to a new hairdo, is a new research assistant.

It should be directly said that Debra Bowen, the incumbent SoS, has no chance of losing.

[Lunar]

Kelly comes off to me as yet another scummy rich guy looking to purchase a political office.

In his ads?  Yeah, he runs pretty embarrassingly cliche stuff, but advertising in CA is hella expensive and sometimes you've got to go the direct route as you want to inflate your name recognition as much as possible for each dollar you spend, more than actually say something real in each ad.  And Kelly's resume is obviously a little thin, so he has to make silly claims like a face-to-face with the camera  saying "I WILL KEEP YOU SAFE"

I like this video though: http://www.kelly2010.com/media/video/671


I'm not the biggest fan in the world of D.A.'s becoming AG's either.  D.A.'s have to deal with petty crime stuff, while AG's can really implement a more expansive vision in their casework that's really not in the same territory as what a D.A. does.

[Lunar]

Harris' site is an extreme rip off of Obama's campaign site. Probably the most blatant political site ripoff I've ever seen: http://www.kamalaharris.org

ouch, I've seen Obama rip-offs before, never anything like that

[Lunar]

Wow, I didn't realize Kelly was spending so damn much.

Viewing his site more, he certainly seems to be on the right when it comes to prison reform and such things, a little disappointing.  At least he's a strong believer in marriage equality.  

You must be logged in to read this quote.

My understanding is that she's more than safe, as she's a popular incumbent among people who know who she is, in a state where there's a Democratic lean.

No clue about the ins and outs.

[Lunar]

She was very sexually active and, according to court records, had an abortion just two weeks prior to the alleged sexual assault (this is now public record).

[crickets]

[Lunar]

Haley at 48%, can she pull it off tonight?

Doubtful, though she may do well enough to cause the other three to concede and avoid a runoff.  (Note: Under SC law, it is not enough for whoever comes in second to concede, all three need to concede.  I recall one time the fourth place finisher forced a runoff because he wouldn't concede.)

I can't count on Bauer conceding.  


edit: DAMN SPADE BEAT ME TO IT

[Lunar]

I hear word (per tweets) that the Carly celebration ballroom has almost NO wireless service.

[Lunar]

3% in for Maine... LePage leads Otten 36-25, while Rowe leads Mitchell 34-29.

Yeah no one knows who anyone is in Maine, or has any opinion about who they want to win.

[Lunar]

Does anyone here got good live election coverage? (TV or internet, preferably TV)

TV??

[Lunar]

Haley at 49%.

Wow.  If she can get to 50.01, color me F'n amazed at Sanford's operation and her political talents.

A state rep., getting a MAJORITY, not a plurality, against so many other other SERIOUS candidates, some federal some statewide, despite allegations of an affair....wow.

[Lunar]

Haley at 49%.

Wow.  If she can get to 50.01, color me F'n amazed at Sanford's operation and her political talents.

A state rep., getting a MAJORITY, not a plurality, against so many other other SERIOUS candidates, some federal some statewide, despite because of allegations of an affair....wow.

FTFY

Hey, look, the "despite" still applies, even if she had enough political talent to show those f&*(ers that their racist, sexist, sleazy techniques can be turned against them, even in a GOP primary in South Carolina.

If you can turn a serious sleazy attack into a gain without any proof on either side, that's the more to your credit. 

[Lunar]

Btw, if anyone cares - Halter's going to go down by 5%-7%, possibly more.  You heard it hear first.

(I reserve the right to be completely wrong, of course - this is a very early call based on a lot of incomplete info, but I have to occasionally gamble so I can be vague at other points.  )

I heard that the AR establishment was leaking that they expected Halter to win by 3-10% this morning (and I believe that rumor).

Depressing.

[Lunar]

Go Haley, wow.  49%.

Anyone want to bet that Bauer is the guy that refuses the run-off, if anyone does?

[Lunar]

I'm not sure if it's been mentioned, but Hurt is clearly going to be the nominee against our progressive friend Tom in VA, by a very strong margin too, leading everyone else combined, essentially, despite being a "tax-increaser"

[Lunar]

I'm not sure if it's been mentioned, but Hurt is clearly going to be the nominee against our progressive friend Tom in VA, by a very strong margin too, leading everyone else combined, essentially, despite being a "tax-increaser"

I expected that but still:

It's too bad that there were so many teabagger candidates.

I expected him to win, just not by 48%ish, more like in the 30s, I mean he was the object of scorn by all the teaparties for raising taxes and faced like five challengers, that he would win the plurality was pretty obvious, but so decisively? 

[Lunar]

HAHHAAHAHAAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHA

http://www.wciv.com/news/stories/0610/744075.html

The SC Democrats just nominated an unemployed military vet who had no signs, no money and no website, and hadn't been seen since he filed.

Dawg, you're going to regret laughing if the California GOP nominated Orly Taitz, which is a SERIOUS possibility.

[Lunar]

I'm not sure if it's been mentioned, but Hurt is clearly going to be the nominee against our progressive friend Tom in VA, by a very strong margin too, leading everyone else combined, essentially, despite being a "tax-increaser"

I expected that but still:

It's too bad that there were so many teabagger candidates.

I expected him to win, just not by 48%ish, more like in the 30s, I mean he was the object of scorn by all the teaparties for raising taxes and faced like five challengers, that he would win the plurality was pretty obvious, but so decisively?  

He got 48 percent!? I only heard he won through this thread. I had no idea that it was such of a pwnage.

The establishment feeling, at least that which I am attuned to [I'm a Democrat in NYC fwiw] was that he was going to do MUCH worse, but was going to win anyway because he had eight opponents attacking him vigorously an thus splitting the anti-Hurt vote.

But he seems to have taken them to the house, which bodes very, very, very ill for Perriello

[Lunar]

WTF is going on with Orly Taitz?

She's on an 1 on 1 match with a lackluster opponent for whoever gets to be the sacrificial lamb for California SoS.  No votes have come in yet, but people figure, if no one knows whoever they are, the CA GOP will have to disavow her and be embarrassed from now until November.  

Kinda rooting for Orly to be honest.

[Lunar]

BREAKING- Halter now LEADS!

OH YEAH

[Lunar]

I'm not sure if it's been mentioned, but Hurt is clearly going to be the nominee against our progressive friend Tom in VA, by a very strong margin too, leading everyone else combined, essentially, despite being a "tax-increaser"

I expected that but still:

It's too bad that there were so many teabagger candidates.

I expected him to win, just not by 48%ish, more like in the 30s, I mean he was the object of scorn by all the teaparties for raising taxes and faced like five challengers, that he would win the plurality was pretty obvious, but so decisively?  

He got 48 percent!? I only heard he won through this thread. I had no idea that it was such of a pwnage.

The establishment feeling, at least that which I am attuned to [I'm a Democrat in NYC fwiw] was that he was going to do MUCH worse, but was going to win anyway because he had eight opponents attacking him vigorously an thus splitting the anti-Hurt vote.

But he seems to have taken them to the house, which bodes very, very, very ill for Perriello

Does it? I suppose it depends if an independent tea bagger runs or not now. I'm inclined to believe that Perriello's odds are better in a Periello vs. Hurt vs. Indy Teabagger race than a Periello vs. Republican Teabagger race.

Hurt has an electoral base in the district, and a history of being not completely insane on tax issues, having voted for Warner's budget in '04 or whatevsky, how's that going to hurt him when he so clearly dominated the GOP primary [read: activists] despite a laundry list of opponents attacking him?

[Lunar]

Senator Boozman, where's my booze, man?