6/8 Primaries - AR, CA, IA, ME, MT, NV, NJ, ND, SC, SD, VA (results links in OP)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here we go.

Arkansas (runoff)
- Senate (D) - Blanche Lincoln v. Bill Halter.
- AR-01 (D) - Chad Causey v. Tim Wooldridge.
- AR-02 (D) - Joyce Elliott v. Robbie Wills.
- AR-03 (R) - Cecile Bledsoe v. Steve Womack.

California
- Governor - Jerry Brown is more or less unopposed on the D side. Some nobodies named Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner are running on the R side.
- Senator - Barbara Boxer is also more or less unopposed. Republicans have Carly Fiorina, Tom Campbell, and Chuck DeVore.
- Initiatives - Prop 14 is the one to watch here, it creates a "top-two" primary system akin to the one Washington uses.
- CA-11 - Four Republicans are facing off for the right to take on Jerry McNerney. David Harmer, who ran against Jerry McNerney in CA-10 last year, is the Washington establishment's pick, but there are also vintner Brad Goehring, businesswoman/autism advocate Elizabeth Emken, and some guy named Tony Amador who will probably run a distant fourth.
- CA-19 - In this open Republican seat, all the action is unsurprisingly on the Republican side, where State Sen. Jeff Denham, ex-Congressman Dick Pombo, Fresno City Council member Larry Westerlund, and former Fresno Mayor Jim Patterson are running. There are two Democrats running, but neither has raised any significant money.
- CA-20 - Just a quick note that Jim Costa, who voted against health care, has a primary challenger. He didn't raise much money, but it will be interesting to see if Costa gets a lukewarm Larry Kissell level of support.
- CA-33 - Open Democratic seat, which probably won't be exciting, as Assembly Speaker Karen Bass is the only serious candidate running.
- CA-36 - Democrat Jane Harman is facing a challenge from Marcy Winograd. She's probably not in much danger.
- CA-42 - I haven't heard a thing about this, but Republican Gary Miller is being challenged by CPA Phil Liberatore, who has pumped a half million of his own money into the race. His fate will likely be similar to other generic rich guy challengers, like the one that flamed out trying to knock off Patrick McHenry in North Carolina.

Georgia (runoff)
- GA-09 - Republican state legislators Tom Graves and Lee Hawkins face off in the runoff for Nathan Deal's seat. Is there any difference between these two?

Iowa - 35% threshold to win a primary, otherwise nominee is chosen by convention
- Governor - ex-Gov. Terry Branstad is the frontrunner to take on Democrat Chet Culver in the fall. His opposition consists of Bob Vander Platts and ex-State Rep. Rod Roberts.
- Senator - Roxanne Conlin shouldn't have much trouble winning the Democratic primary to take on Chuck Grassley in November. She faces a couple of former state legislators who haven't raised much money.
- IA-02 - There's quite the cast of characters running to take on two-term Rep. Dave Loebsack. His 2008 opponent, ophthalmologist Marianette Miller-Meeks is running, as are two of the three Republicans who ran for the Republican Senate nomination in 2008, Christopher Reed and Steve Rathje. There's also a businessman named Rob Gettemy.
- IA-03 - Seven Republicans are vying for the nomination here; the frontrunner is former wrestling coach Jim Gibbons (no, not that Jim Gibbons), but State Sen. Brad Zaun is well-liked among conservatives.

Maine
- Governor - Half the state is running. The Democratic frontrunners seem to be State Senate President Libby Mitchell and ex-AG Steve Rowe. On the Republican side, businessman Les Otten appears to be the favorite, although State Sen. Peter Mills shouldn't be counted out.

Montana
- MT-AL - Not likely to be competitive in November, but four Democrats are running here, and Denny Rehberg has two challengers, although neither has raised a lot of money.

Nevada
- Governor - In any other year, this would be the hot primary. Gov. Jim Gibbons is likely to be knocked off in the Republican primary by former judge Brian Sandoval, while Rory Reid should have no trouble dispatching his lone primary opponent.
- Senate - Do I even need to go through this clown car of a Republican primary? Teabagger/Club for Growther Sharron Angle seems to have the edge at the last minute, but ex-state party chair/bartering expert Sue Lowden and Danny "Remember me?" Tarkanian are close behind.
- NV-01 - There is a staggering eight-Republican field looking to lose to Shelley Berkeley. Businessman Craig Lake has raised quite a bit of cash, and should win easily.
- NV-03 - Ex-State Sen. Joe Heck should win the Republican nomination to go up against freshman Dina Titus in November.

New Jersey
- Nothing to report here, New Jersey's machine-driven politics tend to ensure Congressional primaries remain uncompetitive. The only thing to note is the Republicans' recruitment of rich people to run in NJ-03 (Jon Runyon), NJ-06 (Diane Gooch), NJ-09 (John Aslanian), and NJ-12 (Scott Sipprelle).

North Dakota
- ND-AL - State Rep. Rick Berg should easily win the primary to take on Democratic Rep. Earl Pomeroy.

South Carolina - runoff state (50%)
- Governor - Oh, Lord. "Scandal-plagued" State Rep. Nikki Haley looks to be in front, while Attorney General Henry McMaster, Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, and Rep. Gresham Barrett are duking it out for the second-place slot in the runoff. For the Democrats, it looks like State Sen. Robert Ford will play spoiler, dragging Education Superintendant Jim Rex and State Sen. Vincent Sheheen into a runoff.
- Senator - Some nobody is challenging Jim DeMint, while Charleston County Councilor Vic Rawl should easily win the nomination over Alvin Greene.
- SC-01 - Nine Republicans are running for this open seat; State Rep. Tim Scott seems to be out front, but may end up in a runoff with someone else, probably Tumpy Campbell or Paul Thurmond.
- SC-03 - Six Republicans are running here; State Reps. Jeff Duncan and Rex Rice and businessman Joe Grimaud have raised the most money.
- SC-04 - Republican Rep. Bob Inglis is in a heap of trouble over his whole "I'm a sane conservative" act. Solicitor Trey Gowdy is looking likely to drag him into a runoff, if not win outright.

South Dakota - runoff state (35%)
- Governor - State Sen. Scott Heidepriem is unopposed on the Democratic side, while Republicans have five candidates running; Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard would seem to be the favorite, but State Sens. Gordon Howie and Dave Knudson are also contenders.
- SD-AL - Secretary of State Chris Nelson and State Reps. Blake Curd and Kristi Noem are running for the Republican nomination to take on Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin. Curd has raised the most money, but Nelson is the only one with a statewide profile.

Virginia
- VA-01 - Republican Rob Wittman is getting teabagged by crackpot Catherine Crabill. She's raised no money, but the extreme right loves her for some reason.
- VA-02 - A six-Republican field is vying for the right to take on Glenn Nye, but Scott Rigell has the Republican establishment backing. Navy vets Ben Loyola and Scott Taylor, and Army Reservist Bert Mizusawa will probably all finish in a distant second-place clump.
- VA-05 - Seven Republicans here, with Democrat Tom Perriello the opponent in November. Again, State Sen. Robert Hurt is the establishment pick, while Albemarle County Supervisor Ken Boyd and various and sundry teabaggers will be left in the dust.
- VA-11 - Gerry Connolly's opponent will be one of two Republicans: Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity and businessman / 2008 nominee Keith Fimian. Fimian has the money and conservative credentials, but Herrity is better-positioned to win in November.

Anything else to watch?

Results pages:

AP sites: AR | CA | GA | IA | ME | MT | NV | NJ | ND | SC | SD | VA

South Carolina State Election Commission
Virginia State Board of Elections

Poll closing times (eastern):

7 - Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia
8 - Maine, New Jersey
8:30 - Arkansas
9 - South Dakota
10 - Iowa, Montana, Nevada
11 - California, North Dakota

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The 8th is the last big primary day for a while. Between then and August there are only three more states (Utah, Georgia and Oklahoma) and some runoffs. I think it's worthwhile for big multi-state days; there's definitely no need for individual threads for the smaller primary dates.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

     Meg Whitman a nobody? With the amount of money she's pumped in, she's practically more recognizeable than Jesus among Californian voters at this point.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irony

[JohnnyLongtorso]

New Jersey
- Nothing to report here, New Jersey's machine-driven politics tend to ensure Congressional primaries remain uncompetitive. The only thing to note is the Republicans' recruitment of rich people to run in NJ-03 (Jon Runyon), NJ-06 (Diane Gooch), NJ-09 (John Aslanian), and NJ-12 (Scott Sipprelle).

I still dont know who I'm voting for, Gooch has the money to defeat Pallone, but Anna Little is more conservative. Id just want to see Pallone gone, he has not made it a secret he wants to run for the senate someday.

I doubt Gooch could defeat Pallone, but she could make him spend some of his $4 million.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Another race worth watching is the California Attorney General race. It's a fight between the former Facebook executive Chris Kelly, whose only positive quality seems to be his large bank account, and San Francisco DA Kamala Harris.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Kelly comes off to me as yet another scummy rich guy looking to purchase a political office. Plus there's the fact that he was in charge of Facebook's laughable privacy standards.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's a Google spreadsheet of fundraising numbers for the California statewide offices. Kelly has spent nearly $20 million in the past three months or so. Harris and Rocky Delgaldillo have spent about $3 million each.

Debra Bowen sure doesn't look safe, since she hasn't bothered to raise anything. I guess she's just depending on the natural Dem lean of the state to pull her through, since Dunn is a political unknown?

Bill Lockyer should be pretty safe, $8.6 million in the bank and all.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Link to the SC vote results as the State Election Commission releases them.

http://www.enr-scvotes.org/SC/16117/index.html

I've added that link, along with the usual AP sites and Virginia's state board of elections. Anyone else with other sources of election information (preferably official, since aside from official sites, the AP is usually fastest) feel free to post them and I'll add them.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Link to the SC vote results as the State Election Commission releases them.

http://www.enr-scvotes.org/SC/16117/index.html

There are primaries on the Lord's day of rest?

No, dear, this is the thread for Tuesday's primaries.

Here's another one to look out for, the Republican primary for Nevada's Clark County District 9 Senate seat. Incumbent Dennis Nolan is on tape allegedly offering to bribe a rape victim to say her ex-husband (his friend) didn't, in fact, rape her.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

He probably faces more of a threat in the primary than in the general.

SUSA did some last-minute polls of stuff in California. Prop 14 looks likely to pass, it's up 50-28. For Lt. Governor, Gavin Newsom leads Janice Hahn 43-27, while Abel Maldonado leads Sam Aanestad 26-16, with four other candidates each taking 6-7 percent. In CA-19, Jim Patterson leads Jeff Denham 34-30, with Dick Pombo a distant third at 17%. The two Democrats in CA-19 are tied, not that it matters.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I've added the poll closing times in the OP:

7 - Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia
8 - Maine, New Jersey
8:30 - Arkansas
9 - South Dakota
10 - Iowa, Montana, Nevada
11 - California, North Dakota

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Btw Johnny, what do you think of the VA-01 race in general? If Wittman wins the primary, can Krystal Ball make it competitive or is she unlucky that it's 2010?

Wittman shouldn't have much trouble winning another term. Ball looked like a strong candidate in the beginning -- I believe she actually outraised Wittman the first quarter she was in, and she quickly sewed up the Democratic nomination by shutting her opponent out of the delegates needed for the convention -- but her fundraising has dropped off and the environment just isn't right for a Democrat to take over a McCain seat. The Democrats' best chance to take the seat was 2008; had they not screwed up by nominating a crap candidate who dropped out in something like July or August, leaving them scrambling to find a replacement (who still managed a respectable showing for raising only about 1/5 of what Wittman raised, and only having two or three months to campaign), they would have done much better, even if Obama didn't win the district.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I believe MSNBC (Keith Olbermann, specifically) is covering it at 8 and 10, but I'm not sure if that's something you'd want to watch.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Direct link for Virginia's results, not that they'll be that exciting:

https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/election/DATA/2010/3429C052-221D-420E-B117-AB75E2FD4894/Unofficial/6_s.shtml

Edit: Well, okay, I expect VA-11 to be close.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Wow, Crabill's pulling single digits in the southern end of VA-01. She'll probably do better in the Northern Neck, but I was expecting her to at least get a token level of teabagger support.

In VA-05, Hurt is ahead by about 8-9 points over Jim McKelvey. McKelvey seems to be doing surprisingly well, although it may just be his geographic base reporting early (he's from Bedford County).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

VA-02: Rigell posting huge lead in Norfolk; Mizusawa is winning Hampton, which is where he lives.

VA-05: Hurt is far enough ahead of McKelvey that he should win.

VA-11: Fimian is looking quite strong, winning Prince William big, and also winning Fairfax City. Herrity needs to pull out a pretty big margin in Fairfax County to take this.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I expect Rigell will win Virginia Beach as well. Hampton is pretty much cut off from the rest of the district, so it's not surprising the home-team candidate won big there.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

VA-02 is actually worse than MD-01, since you have the population base of Norfolk and Virginia Beach and two satellite areas, Hampton and the Eastern Shore, each cut off from the main part by water and only accessible by tunnel.

Hawkins is totally sucking in the GA-09 runoff; he's losing every county except tiny Dawson.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Ben Loyola is actually in the lead in Virginia Beach right now; I guess plastering the city with all those signs showing him in his Navy uniform (despite it being of questionable legality) paid off.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Five of the seven candidates in VA-05 have won at least one county. Aside from Hurt and McKelvey, Ken Boyd won Albemarle, Feda Kidd Morton is winning Fluvanna, and Mike McPadden won Nelson.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Herrity looks to be toast in VA-11. He's been shellacked in Prince William and is barely leading in Fairfax.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Rigell is leading there, not overwhelmingly, but more than enough to cement a win.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The pointless primary in VA-08 is the one nailbiter in Virginia tonight... Patrick Murray leads Matthew Berry by a 16-vote margin with 74% of precincts in.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

South Carolina Treasurer Converse Chellis is currently trailing 60-40.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Murray is pulling ahead anyway, so unless Falls Church went incredibly strong for Berry, Murray should win.