6/8 Primaries - AR, CA, IA, ME, MT, NV, NJ, ND, SC, SD, VA (results links in OP)

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Bert Misuzawa(SP?) leads in VA-02. Me thinks its all from Hampton City (50% Reporting) which has him at 58%. Norfolk City (33% Reporting) has Rigell in the lead. This one could get interesting.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

A huge chunk of Norfolk came in (from 33% to 62% reporting) and put Rigell back in the lead.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

VA-02: Rigell posting huge lead in Norfolk; Mizusawa is winning Hampton, which is where he lives.

VA-05: Hurt is far enough ahead of McKelvey that he should win.

VA-11: Fimian is looking quite strong, winning Prince William big, and also winning Fairfax City. Herrity needs to pull out a pretty big margin in Fairfax County to take this.

Hurt is doing better then I expected. Rigell should win, he is leading now in all the localities reporting save Hampton. 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I expect Rigell will win Virginia Beach as well. Hampton is pretty much cut off from the rest of the district, so it's not surprising the home-team candidate won big there.

Indeed, its kind of like MD-01 wouldn't you say except the isolated patch is far smaller proportionally.

I am having a good night so far. Shame the West Coast is going to turn out so bad considering how great a start it has been.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Yea Hurt and Rigell are going to win, Rigell is 12 points ahead, Hurt is almost 20% ahead.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Ben Loyola is actually in the lead in Virginia Beach right now; I guess plastering the city with all those signs showing him in his Navy uniform (despite it being of questionable legality) paid off.

Who says crime doesn't pay?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Turnout certainly is low.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Yea, I saw that.


AP Calls VA-05 for Hurt.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Most of the remaining precincts out in the second are in VA Beach.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Haley is ahead of Barrett 42-28. With the others in the teens. Bauer is forth.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

AP Calls it for Rigell in VA-02. And Fimian is within 15 votes in Fairfax so VA-11 might as well be called too.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Its also safe to say that Graves is the new Congressman from Georgia.

Yea our second House Special election win in a row. And the first GOP hold in a special election win since Steve Scalise won LA-01 to succeed Jindal in 2008.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

AP called VA-11 for Fimian. Since VA-08 is as you say worthless, I am exiting the VA AP and SOS pages to make room for NJ and ME.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

ME and NJ have been closed for 30 minutes and still nothing.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

There are a few precincts reporting in NJ. Runyan is up 64-36 in NJ-03.

Yea, just saw that. Still nothing in ME though. I am more interested in the ME Governor's race, especially the GOP primary.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

ME is going to take some time. Most areas are still handcounted, and because it is down at the town rather than the county level, they tend to come in batches. That said, the primaries on both sides are complete messes.

The GOP one is, as usual in Maine, the most important one. For all the talk of Maine being a blue state, moderate Republicans almost always beat liberal Democrats, and generally have a leg up on moderate ones. On the other hand, creationist crazies tend to go down in flames quite spectacularly. Peter Mills almost certanly would have won the general had he won the primary in 2006, and either he or Steve Abbott would be favorites if they pull through tonight. Les Otten has money, but self-funders have not done well in the state recently, and he has moved somewhat to the right in the primary. Paul LePage would be creamed in Portland and Cumberland county. Of the others, not quite worth going through them

In terms of support, Mills will have most of the liberals, at least those who vote in the GOP primary. Abbott is the candidate of the Collins machine, Otten, the candidate of those unhappy with it. LePage represents the tea Party movement, which is odd because he has been a fairly liberal mayor of a college/factory town.

I still think Abbott should have ran for ME-01, where he would be the favorite in the primary and have had decent shot at beating Pingree. I am hoping Mills pulls it through though him or Abbott would probably win the general. I think Otten might even have a chance but less of one then Mills or Abbott.

Results starting to trickle in from AR. Lincoln up 53-47. She was up 57-43, you can see where this is going.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Haley at 48%, can she pull it off tonight?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

She fell back to 46%, this is going to get interesting as well.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

LePage at 67% in ME. Only a dozen votes so it like won't last.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Lincoln-Halter is early voting numbers, right?

Most of them are. Some of today's are now coming in.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

ME is going to take some time. Most areas are still handcounted, and because it is down at the town rather than the county level, they tend to come in batches. That said, the primaries on both sides are complete messes.

The GOP one is, as usual in Maine, the most important one. For all the talk of Maine being a blue state, moderate Republicans almost always beat liberal Democrats, and generally have a leg up on moderate ones. On the other hand, creationist crazies tend to go down in flames quite spectacularly. Peter Mills almost certanly would have won the general had he won the primary in 2006, and either he or Steve Abbott would be favorites if they pull through tonight. Les Otten has money, but self-funders have not done well in the state recently, and he has moved somewhat to the right in the primary. Paul LePage would be creamed in Portland and Cumberland county. Of the others, not quite worth going through them

In terms of support, Mills will have most of the liberals, at least those who vote in the GOP primary. Abbott is the candidate of the Collins machine, Otten, the candidate of those unhappy with it. LePage represents the tea Party movement, which is odd because he has been a fairly liberal mayor of a college/factory town.

I still think Abbott should have ran for ME-01, where he would be the favorite in the primary and have had decent shot at beating Pingree. I am hoping Mills pulls it through though him or Abbott would probably win the general. I think Otten might even have a chance but less of one then Mills or Abbott.

Results starting to trickle in from AR. Lincoln up 53-47. She was up 57-43, you can see where this is going.

From a GOp perspective, Abbott absolutely should have run for ME-01. The problem is that there is a bit of moderate infighting between the Collins/Northern Maine faction and the Snowe/Urban faction. In 2006 this let Chandler Woodcock win with 38% of the vote, with the Collins-backed Emerey costing Mills the nomination. This time Mills is running again, feeling he was cheated out of 2006, while Abbott thinks its his year. They may well end up just splitting the moderate vote again. And Maine is a state with a substantial moderate vote in the GOP primary.

Why are they fighting each other. They should work together before the ME GOP gets destroyed or is pushed rightword.

Haley back at 48% in SC.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Noem is back in the lead by 100 votes in SD.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Haley at 49% with about 71% reporting.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Runyon winning 56%-44% with 97% reporting.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Runyon winning 56%-44% with 97% reporting.

Percentage reporting HAS to be a typo.  But AP has finally called it for Runyan.


Edited to add:  The AP's numbers are lagging the Burlington County website.  Runyan's margin will be higher. 

AP has 486 precincts in out of 505. 486/505=96.2%. Yea, its off by 1.