6/8 Primaries - AR, CA, IA, ME, MT, NV, NJ, ND, SC, SD, VA (results links in OP)

[cinyc]

There are a few precincts reporting in NJ. Runyan is up 64-36 in NJ-03.

Yea, just saw that. Still nothing in ME though. I am more interested in the ME Governor's race, especially the GOP primary.

My guess is Runyan wins this.  The Ocean County part of the district is in the NYC TV market - and kind of a mix of Giants and Eagles fans.  The other two counties are in the Philly TV market and chock full of Eagles fans.  He should run better there.

[cinyc]

New Jersey is actually proving to be more interesting than I expected. Diane Gooch is trailing her opponent 54-46 in NJ-06 (Monmouth is the only county reporting), Scott Sipprelle is losing 55-45 in NJ-12, and Runyon is only up 56-44 in NJ-03.

What's likely going to be Runyan's best part of the district - the Philly TV market - is barely in.

[cinyc]

Scott Sipprelle is losing 55-45 in NJ-12,

Monmouth (Corsi's home county) is mostly in, whereas Mercer, where Sipprelle is from, is only 1/139 reporting.

Yeah, but Middlesex is also totally out.  If this ends up being a NY vs. Philly TV market thing, Sipprelle is toast.   Middlesex >>> Mercer

[cinyc]

Runyon winning 56%-44% with 97% reporting.

Percentage reporting HAS to be a typo.  But AP has finally called it for Runyan.


Edited to add:  The AP's numbers are lagging the Burlington County website.  Runyan's margin will be higher. 

[cinyc]

The AP's Burlington numbers are off, the County website says Runyon won it 5,815 - 3,005.

By my math, Runyan will win by something like 59-41 or 60-40, depending on how much is still out and how things end up rounding.  He won the two Philly DMA counties with about 2/3rds of the vote while squeezing by narrowly in the NYC DMA county of Ocean.

[cinyc]

The AP has 1890/2109 precincts in with Haley at 49%.

Sipprelle takes the lead in NJ-12; he should pull off a win, since Middlesex (which he's winning 60-40) is about all that's left.

Also, Somerset.  I wouldn't call anything without knowing what parts of Middlesex are in.  It's another dividing-line county that's more New York than Philly but sometimes both.

[cinyc]

Inglis is getting destroyed. I'll be sorry to see him go.

I won't be.  He voted to ban Internet gambling, sided with the Democrats against Iraq, and has increasingly taken on a pro-"climate change"stance - no thanks!  Let someone who actually represents Upstate South Carolina values represent Upstate South Carolina.

[cinyc]

AP hasn't called it yet, but I'm pretty sure Noem will win in South Dakota.  What's out seems to be largely Pennington County (Rapid City) and various small counties largely on Indian reservations.  So far, Noem is winning Pennington and surrounding counties and there aren't many Republicans on the reservations.  Noem should hold on.

[cinyc]

Well now, if Halter has a 59%-41% lead in Pulaski...

lol

Lincoln won the first round there 52-40.  Halter is from there, of course.

The two big counties in NW Arkansas (Benton (Bentonville) & Washington (Fayetteville)) are totally out.  How did they vote the last time?  

[cinyc]

Well now, if Halter has a 59%-41% lead in Pulaski...

lol

Lincoln won the first round there 52-40.  Halter is from there, of course.

The two big counties in NW Arkansas (Benton (Bentonville) & Washington (Fayetteville)) are totally out.  How did they vote the last time?  

Lincoln won both.  Benton by a lot.  Washington by the same as Pulaski, which is why I posted the above prediction many pages back.

Thanks.  I suspect the University of Arkansas is out of session, which could lead to lower turnout if the students were still there for the first election.   That could hurt Halter even more in Washington County.

[cinyc]

Lowden ahead in the Clark County absentees, 37-33. Tarkanian wins the Mineral County absentees, 39-26-25. Tarkanianmentum!

People actually live in Mineral County?

[cinyc]

Sipprelle will wing the NJ-12 primary.  Middlesex really came through.  Somerset was marginal.

[cinyc]

AP calls the SD-AL Republican primary for Noem, as I projected.

[cinyc]

Angle is really cleaning up in the Reno area.  The only question is whether Lowden can stem the tide in Vegas.

[cinyc]

You can't assume anything with 3.6% in, especially in California.

Eh, the counties are somewhat representative, though OC and much of the Bay Area isn't in yet.  Fiorina will win big.  She has 60% of the vote in L.A. County with a little less than 10% in.

[cinyc]

Lowden needs to step up the Clark County margin or she's toast.  My gut tells me she's toast.

[cinyc]

Is it safe to call NV GOP for Angle now?

Not without more of Clark County in.  But it looks like Angle will pull it out.

[cinyc]

Angle-Lowden could end up to be a skin tight race. We need another vote dump of today votes in Clark to know.

We still have about 1/3rd of Washoe (Reno), plus all of Douglas (Lake Tahoe) and Lyon (Fernley + Carson City exurbs) in the Reno area to give Angle more of a margin.  Then, Clark matters.  Every other county is very small, save Nye (Pahrump/Vegas exurbs + Tonopah/middle of nowhere). Will Nye follow Clark?  Maybe - a lot of the population is in the Pahrump area.

[cinyc]

Updated Clark from their website:

Precincts Reporting: 375 of 1175 (31.91%)
Candidate   Graph   Votes   %
Angle, Sharron    22,470    35.74%
Lowden, Sue           20,901    33.24%
Tarkanian, Danny     13,185    20.97%


Not looking good for Lowden.

http://www.accessclarkcounty.com/election/2010/prim/results_prim.htm

[cinyc]

Angle-Lowden could end up to be a skin tight race. We need another vote dump of today votes in Clark to know.

I (sadly) don't see it. Angle is now leading by 7, with 32% in. These are extremely disappointing results. Everyone prepare for another session with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

Look at the numbers below:

Total   679/2126   

Angle 32,647

Lowden 26,996


Clark   107/1181   

Angle 17,714

Lowden 18,693

I think the initial Clark results (which may have reflected absentees/early votes) were better for Lowden than what came in later.

[cinyc]

Could well be Cinyc, which is why I wanted to see another vote dump from Clark. If Angle breaks even with that dump, or close, than it is time to call the election.

I posted another Clark County dump from the county's website, which the AP hasn't reflected yet.  It broke to Angle.  The fat lady is warming up, probably already singing.

[cinyc]

MSNBC just said Fiorina won.

Are we going to get more demon sheep ads, now?

I hope so.  Demon sheep are AWESOME.

[cinyc]

More Clark (it's OVER):

Precincts Reporting: 616 of 1175 (52.43%)
Candidate   Graph   Votes   %
Angle, Sharron       27,506    36.98%
Lowden, Sue          23,545    31.66%
Tarkanian, Danny     15,989    21.50%

http://www.accessclarkcounty.com/election/2010/prim/results_prim.htm

Edited to add: I can't imagine the AP won't call the race after they update with these results.

[cinyc]

As I predicted, with the updated results, the AP calls NV-Senate(R) for Angle.

[cinyc]

IA-3 GOP primary is kinda interesting in that Zaun won by getting 52% in Polk County (Des Moines), and naturally where his state Senate seat is and either losing or performing weakly everywhere else.

So basically you're saying he won where the people are and trailed where the people aren't.  That usually wins elections - and is a pretty good strategy.

Zaun seems to have done worst on the fringes of the district, some (but not all) of which are counties outside the Des Moines TV market.