6/8 Primaries - AR, CA, IA, ME, MT, NV, NJ, ND, SC, SD, VA (results links in OP)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Anything else to watch?

South Carolina
- Lieutenant Governor - Result in the GOP primary will be a runoff between any two of Ard, Connor, and Richter.  Kitzman hasn't been able to raise enough to run a competitive campaign.

Insider Advantage polled this race along with the Governor's races and got:
Lt. Gov. (R)
Richter 16.4%
Ard 13.7%
Connor 11.3%
Kitzman 5.1%
no opinion: 53.6%

- Attorney General - Another race likely to head to a runoff, as all three GOP candidates, Bolchoz, Lord, and Wilson, are reasonably well-funded.

- Treasurer - Only two GOP candidates, so no runoff, but the contest between Chellis and Curtis is arguably a nastier and dirtier one than anything involving Haley.

- Comptroller General - Eckstrom should easily beat Meilinger for renomination, but could get caught in the backwash from Haley-gate.  (A few months ago, the same Will Folks of Haley-gate fame released emails between Eckstrom and Superintendent candidate Kelly Payne indicating a romantic relationship. Eckstrom was separated from his wife at the time, and Payne is divorced, so it's a stretch to call it an affair.)

-Superintendent of Education -  Zais has had the most visible campaign, and I'd be surprised if he doesn't at least make the runoff in this six candidate GOP race.  If I had to guess, his likely runoff opponent will be Nelsen, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Payne make the runoff.  There's also a Democratic primary that's attracted little notice, and which I expect Holleman to win.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Link to the SC vote results as the State Election Commission releases them.

http://www.enr-scvotes.org/SC/16117/index.html

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Early results from SC indicate:

Gov (R): Niiki wins, but will face a runoff against either Barrett or McMaster, Barrett leads McMaster, but a lot of the early returns are from his district

Gov. (D): Sheheen wins, but too soon to tell if he will face Rex in a runoff

Lt. Gov. (R): Kitzman loses, but too soon to see which of the other three advance to the runoff

Att. Gen. (R):  Lord/Wilson runoff looks probable but isn't certain.  Way too soon to say whether Lord or Wilson wins round 1.

Comp. Gen. (R): Eckstrom wins handily

Supt. of Ed. (R): Zais will win, but too early to see who he'll face in the runoff other than it won't be Price

Supt. of Ed. (D): Holleman wins

Treas. (R): Loftis defeats the incumbent Chellis

U.S. House 1 (R): too few returns to call, tho it looks like Scott will make the runoff.

U.S. House 3 (R): too few returns to call, tho early returns suggest a Duncan/Grimaud runoff

U.S. House 4 (R): too few returns to call, while it looks like Gowdy is crushing Inglis, the sparse early returns are from Spartanburg where he would be expected to do better.

Senate (D): close race

SC House 39 (R): no results in yet

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

SC Gov. (D): Sheheen is now at 58%, with Rex at 23% and Ford at 19%.  Even if Rex does make the runoff now, I'd expect him to concede.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

SC House 13 (R) With 9 of 29 precincts in, Griffin leads the incumbent Pinson 51-49.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

US House SC-1 (R):  Looks like Scott will be facing either Campbell or Thurmond in the runoff.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

US House SC-3:  Duncan should make the runoff, but it's too early to tell if Cash, Grimaud, or Rice will be his opponent

US House SC-4: Inglis is leading in Greenville County but Gowdy is crushing him in Spartanburg.  Expect a runoff between those two, and unless something unexpected happens for Gowdy to win it.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I may have written Bolchoz off too soon in the Att. Gen. race.  While Wilson looks fairly solid to make te runoff, Bolchoz might be able to overtake Lord.

In the Lt. Gov. race it's shaping up to be an Ard/Connor runoff.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Haley at 48%, can she pull it off tonight?

Doubtful, though she may do well enough to cause the other three to concede and avoid a runoff.  (Note: Under SC law, it is not enough for whoever comes in second to concede, all three need to concede.  I recall one time the fourth place finisher forced a runoff because he wouldn't concede.)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I wonder why the AP isn't calling the Comptroller General's race yet.  Granted, Eckstrom's slipped from 70% to 69%, but even in the counties with a throw-the-bums out mentality this year, his worst performance is still 63% and half the precincts are in.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

AP's called Sheheen, and Haley is back up to 48%.

In the Lt. Gov. race, it's safe now to assume Ard makes the runoff, but Richter might overtake Connor for second.

Looks like I was right in the first place about there being a Lord/Wilson runoff for Att. Gen.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

With 13 of 17 precincts reporting, it looks like the incumbent K. Kelly will be defeated by B. Chumley in the SC House 35 race in Spartanburg Co. as the current margin is 62-38, while in SC House 38 (also in Spartanburg) with 8 of 12 precincts in it looks like the incumbent Millwood will be forced into a runoff.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

In the Supt. of Ed. race, looks like the field has narrowed from 5 to 4.  It looks like Nelsen won't make the runoff.  I'm surprised at how well Moffly is doing.  She ran in 2006 and didn't do this well in the primary, which one reason I chose to vote for Nelsen instead of Moffly as I didn't think she had a chance of making he runoff while I thought he did.  Right now only Zais is assured of making the runoff, but Moffly is second, tho closely trailed by Payne and Burgess.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Gowdy's at 50% but almost all of the precints that haven't reported are in Greenville County where Inglis has been winning, but not by enough.  I'd guess the final result will be 43-33 Gowdy which is better than what the polls had been predicting for the first round for Gowdy,

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

AP is being strange in deciding when to call SC House races.

They've called a race that's at 52-48 with 26 of 29 precincts reporting, but haven't called an 82-18 race with 12 of 21 reporting.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Just for laughs, it's not yet certain if there will be a Pratt/Harrelson runoff in SC-6 to see who gets to lose to Clyburn in the fall.  My personal opinion is that the idiots running were hoping to lay down some markers in hope of getting a leg up in 2012 if after redistricting with an added 7th district  they ended up being in a district a Republican could hope to win.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Why would AP call a runoff for Haley when SC Elections has her at 50.44% ?

Because they have Haley at 49% and have been reporting results faster.  If there is a runoff, it will be Haley/Barrett based on what still has yet to report, but I agree it's too soon to rule out the possibility of an outright victory.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

In personal reporting, since it's my district, SC House 39, it looks like Frye will be facing a runoff, probably against Kennedy.  Right now with all of the Lexington County precincts in and none of the Saluda County precincts in, it's a Frye/Kennedy runoff, but Frye's the only one of the three who are running who is actually from Saluda County.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

AP's called that Scott has made the runoff in SC-1, but not who his opponent will be.  Thurmond has second for now, but Campbell has done better in the counties that haven't fully reported yet.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

HAHHAAHAHAAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHA

http://www.wciv.com/news/stories/0610/744075.html

The SC Democrats just nominated an unemployed military vet who had no signs, no money and no website, and hadn't been seen since he filed.

BAHAHAHAHHAAAAAA. PATHETIC.
He doesn't even have a website! WTF?

I suspect it was case of people voting against Vic Rawl and not caring who his opponent was.  In either case, they were going to lose, so it doesn't bother me too much.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

HAHHAAHAHAAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHA

http://www.wciv.com/news/stories/0610/744075.html

The SC Democrats just nominated an unemployed military vet who had no signs, no money and no website, and hadn't been seen since he filed.

BAHAHAHAHHAAAAAA. PATHETIC.
He doesn't even have a website! WTF?

I suspect it was case of people voting against Vic Rawl and not caring who his opponent was.  In either case, they were going to lose, so it doesn't bother me too much.

Was Rawl unpopular or something. I had a friend working on his campaign and he's truly in shock. DeMint will win in a walk now.

Don't know.  Could be the case that since neither candidate did campaigning as far as I could tell (Rawl was likely saving his funds for the general) it boiled down to people against the candidate they had heard of in an anti-incumbent year if Rawl never put out a message of why people should vote for him in the primary.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

SC House incumbents who lost or face a runoff.

SC House 17 (R):  Corbin defeated Cato (i) 59-32 in a 3-way primary
SC House 35 (R): Chumley slaughtered Kelly (i) 63-37.
SC House 38 (R): Milliband (i) will face Brannon in a runoff after eking out a 37-36 plurality in a 3-way primary
SC House 39 (R): Frye (i) will face Kennedy in a runoff after winning a 46-33 plurality in a 3-way race
SC House 41 (D): With 30 of 33 precincts reporting, Brown (i) is leading Marcharia 48-40 in a 3-way primary
SC House 86 (R): Taylor shellacked Stewart (i) 57-43
SC House 106 (R): With 10 of 17 precincts reporting, Hardwick (i) is leading Wilkes 53-47.
SC House 123 (R): Chalk (i) eked out a 35-33 plurality over Patrick in a competitive 3-way primary

EDIT: Hardwick won SC House 106 by the margin of 54-46

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

SC House incumbents who lost or face a runoff.

SC House 41 (D): With 30 of 33 precincts reporting, Brown (i) is leading Marcharia 48-40 in a 3-way primary

This appears to be the only Dem runoff in the entire state. How bad is that turnout going to be?

Probably not too bad.  Runoff turnout is usually about the same and none of the people who voted in the Democratic primary will be able to vote in the Republican runoff.  (People who didn't vote today are eligible to vote in either runoff.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Incidentally with Rawl and Rex both losing, the Working Families Party which had endorsed both will not be having a statewide candidate in South Carolina this year.  Our law says that if you lose a primary you can't run on another party's line.  However, they will have Dyer in SC-3, altho they will have to scratch Burton in SC-1.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

And the winner of the most pointless runoff election on June 22 is:


The Republican South Carolina 6th District Congressional Runoff!