Jewish votes 1916-2008

[Hash]

I don't know if anybody saw this, but it's pretty damn interesting:

http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/US-Israel/jewvote.html

[Bo]

I linked to this before. Anyway, I'm surprised how well Ike did among Jews both times.

[Thomas D]

I linked to this before. Anyway, I'm surprised how well Ike did among Jews both times.

Maybe that was their way of saying 'Thanks for saving us from Hitler."

[Bo]

I linked to this before. Anyway, I'm surprised how well Ike did among Jews both times.

Maybe that was their way of saying 'Thanks for saving us from Hitler."

Possibly. Then again, Ike didn't exactly have the best relations with Israel, but maybe Jewish voters didn't care too much about that.

[Psychic Octopus]

1920 intrigues me the most. I remember reading about the Reagan figure before. Why did so many Jews support Debs?

[Bo]

1920 intrigues me the most. I remember reading about the Reagan figure before. Why did so many Jews support Debs?

Many Jews (being immigrants from Russia) had socialist ideologies, or something close to it.

[Bo]

It appears that picking Lieberman didn't help Gore with the Jewish vote. Gore actually got a smaller % of the Jewish vote than Bill Clinton did in 1992. I suspect that this is because Jews aren't nearly as suspectible to identity politics as other groups are.

[Psychic Octopus]

1920 intrigues me the most. I remember reading about the Reagan figure before. Why did so many Jews support Debs?

Many Jews (being immigrants from Russia) had socialist ideologies, or something close to it.

Yes, I know, but why would Harding do worse then Hughes? And how exactly did Cox manage to lose 35% of Wilson's numbers?

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

So Warren Harding is the only Republican to win even a plurality of the Jewish vote? What caused Republican support to drop off so heavily and so suddenly in 1924 and 1928?

[Bo]

So Warren Harding is the only Republican to win even a plurality of the Jewish vote? What caused Republican support to drop off so heavily and so suddenly in 1924 and 1928?

Harding was the last GOP candidate to win the Jewish vote. That doesn't mean he was the only one to do so. The Jewish vote switched so hevily in 1924 because that is when Democratic political machines started getting very strong in the large cities. The 1920s is also when the Democrats become perceived as the party of urban interests, and most Jews back then (and now) lived in urban areas.

[Bo]

I'm surprised at how well Roosevelt did in 1940 and 1944. He did basically nothing for the jewish concentration camps and yet he still got 90% of jews supporting him.

The information regarding the concentration camps was very vague until 1945. Also, many Jews voted for FDR because they felt he best represented their economic interests.

[Antonio the Sixth]

78% for Obama ? Surprising.

and more generally, I didn't expect jews to be so democrat, since 1916.

[Stranger in a strange land]

78% for Obama ? Surprising.

Sarah Palin was a big factor there. Many if not most Jews fear the religious right.

Also, putting aside the fact that many prominent neoconservatives are Jewish, most Jews aren't particularly hawkish on foreign policy, and were actually far more likely to oppose the War in Iraq.

[memphis]

78% for Obama ? Surprising.

Why surprising? Jews are always very Democratic. Once you take out the ultra-orthodox's heavy GOP tilt, mainstream Jews are probably >90% Obama.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

65% for McGovern?

lol, fail

[k-onmmunist]

90% in 1940 and 1968.... Jesus

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's the source for these numbers? Presumably surveys of some kind, but what sort of surveys? Statistics like this are always fun, but you should never assume that they're especially accurate (and that goes for stuff done now, let alone ninety years ago). I think elections geeks have an unfortunate tendency to be so delighted by new information, that we don't question it enough...

[hcallega]

it's funny because most of my Jewish friends are Republican or at the very least Republican leaning. Part of it seems to be race, in that my closest Jewish friend is somewhat prejudice, due mostly to extreme cultural isolation. One of my other friends liked Obama in 2008, but was offended by his Cairo speech in that he didn't scold the Arab world for terrorism. Ironically my most conservative Jewish friend is an atheist who smokes weed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

1920 intrigues me the most. I remember reading about the Reagan figure before. Why did so many Jews support Debs?

Because the Socialist Party was very strong in most immigrant Jewish communities, especially those in New York. There were links between the garment worker unions (overwhelmingly Jewish) and the Party, and most of the SPA's senior figures and intellectuals were Jewish. Voting Socialist was, for quite a while, very much part of secular Jewish identity in some American cities.

Other strong groups for the SPA were German immigrants in parts of the Midwest (especially around Milwaukee), miners (especially those of English descent) and - in 1912 - poor whites in parts of the South were the Party was organised. As well as random industrial centres all over the place that just had an active Party for whatever reason. Looking at the maps, Scandinavians as well, but they don't feature so much in the secondary literature for whatever reason.

[Bo]

78% for Obama ? Surprising.

Sarah Palin was a big factor there. Many if not most Jews fear the religious right.

Also, putting aside the fact that many prominent neoconservatives are Jewish, most Jews aren't particularly hawkish on foreign policy, and were actually far more likely to oppose the War in Iraq.

Also, the financial crisis probably increased Obama's % among Jews, since many Jews who were flirting with voting for McCain ended up voting for Obama due to McCain's poor response to the crisis.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

So Warren Harding is the only Republican to win even a plurality of the Jewish vote? What caused Republican support to drop off so heavily and so suddenly in 1924 and 1928?

Harding was the last GOP candidate to win the Jewish vote. That doesn't mean he was the only one to do so. The Jewish vote switched so hevily in 1924 because that is when Democratic political machines started getting very strong in the large cities. The 1920s is also when the Democrats become perceived as the party of urban interests, and most Jews back then (and now) lived in urban areas.

And a racist West Virginian was the beneficiary of Jews voting for "urban interests"?

[Bo]

So Warren Harding is the only Republican to win even a plurality of the Jewish vote? What caused Republican support to drop off so heavily and so suddenly in 1924 and 1928?

Harding was the last GOP candidate to win the Jewish vote. That doesn't mean he was the only one to do so. The Jewish vote switched so hevily in 1924 because that is when Democratic political machines started getting very strong in the large cities. The 1920s is also when the Democrats become perceived as the party of urban interests, and most Jews back then (and now) lived in urban areas.

And a racist West Virginian was the beneficiary of Jews voting for "urban interests"?

Yeah, pretty much. Even though LaFollette took a lot of Jewish votes from Coolidge, so without LaFollette running Coolidge might have won the same or a slightly greater % of the Jewish vote than Harding did in 1920.

[phk]

Without outside hindering factors, I think McCain could have got like 30-35% of the Jewish vote.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

So Warren Harding is the only Republican to win even a plurality of the Jewish vote? What caused Republican support to drop off so heavily and so suddenly in 1924 and 1928?

Harding was the last GOP candidate to win the Jewish vote. That doesn't mean he was the only one to do so. The Jewish vote switched so hevily in 1924 because that is when Democratic political machines started getting very strong in the large cities. The 1920s is also when the Democrats become perceived as the party of urban interests, and most Jews back then (and now) lived in urban areas.

The Democratic Party had strong urban machines long before then, especially among immigrants.

[Bo]

Without outside hindering factors, I think McCain could have got like 30-35% of the Jewish vote.

Agreed. The financial crisis might have cost McCain up to 10% of the Jewish vote.