TX State House & Senate Elections - 2010

[Sam Spade]

Keeping up with a topic I did in 2008, 16 State Senate seats are up in 2010 and all 150 House seats are up too.  The State Senate is weird in that its election districts are larger than Congressional districts (which makes it difficult to run without money).  This is obviously an important cycle, as whoever wins has the power of redistricting next time around.

Republicans presently have a 19-12 margin in the State Senate.  I doubt anything changes as most of the possibly interesting seats (on both sides) come up in the Presidential election cycle.  SD-17 might have been interesting (McCain 52%), but no Dem candidate appeared (and Chris Bell didn't want to lose again).

In the House, Republicans presently have a 77-73 majority.  GOP incumbents in HD-4, HD-7 and HD-83 got knocked off in the primaries, but Dems didn't run candidates there (and given those particular HDs, I doubt it would ever make a difference).  Dem incumbents in HD-27, HD-43 and HD-100 got knocked off in the primaries and well, see above as to the likelihood of winning.

As usual, there are a lot of uncontested races, 83 to be exact, which means 57 "competitive" seats. (except for the normal Libertarian entry).  Given the lineup of seats (Dems are defending a lot of seats they took in recent years) and the environment, I think the chances of the numbers staying the same are minimal and Dem losses are to be expected.

State Senate
Uncontested (8 R, 0 D)
SD-1 (R)
SD-3 (R)
SD-7 (R)
SD-8 (R)
SD-12 (R)
SD-17 (R)
SD-22* (R)
SD-25 (R)

Contested (3 R, 5 D)
SD-2 (R) - NE Texas.  McCain got 60% here and Deuell didn't have an opponent in 2006.  Not gonna be interesting.
SD-5 (R) - Big district that includes Williamson County, Bryan/College Station and Huntsville.  McCain also got 60%.  Ogden had a crappy primary performance but is in no danger against the same guy he got 61% against in 2006.
SD-13 (D) - Heart of black Houston.  No way.
SD-14 (D) - Most of Travis County.  Obama got 64%.  Watson may have looked like an idiot on TV, but he'll have no problems, though he has an Tea Party opponent this time (who's a lawyer - meaning she's not that stupid) with an actual website, unlike 2006, when he had no opponent.
SD-15 (D) - Obama got 61% in Whitmire's SD,.  This SD includes a lot of disparate voters, but the Democratic majority is safe, especially with Whitmire, who is presently the longest-serving State Senator.  Opponent is a no-name.
SD-18 (R) - A lot of this SD is Ron Paul's CD.  McCain got 63% here.  Opponent is a no-name, and Hegar didn't even have an opponent in 2006.
SD-19 (D) - Border and West Texas.  Obama only got 55%, but GOP is running the repeat whitey candidate (not just for this office, but others) who Uresti defeated 60-40 last time.  Not gonna happen.
SD-29* (D) - Open seat in the heart of El Paso.  Obama got 65% here, so it's not going to be interesting.  GOP did a Hispanic name to run who's been a frequent candidate, btw.

[Sam Spade]

State House
Uncontested (55 R, 28 D)
HD-2 (R)
HD-4* (R) - Betty Brown overstayed her welcome. 70% McCain HD.
HD-5 (R)
HD-6 (R)
HD-7* (R) - Tommy Merritt was one of the 11 who ousted Craddick and tended to be pretty independent.  This was a definite "Tea Party" victory, imo, as Simpson's platform was very religious in nature (i.e. he's a real religious nut).  70% McCain HD.
HD-10 (R)
HD-13 (R)
HD-14 (R)
HD-15 (R)
HD-16 (R)
HD-18 (R)
HD-19 (R)
HD-20* (R) - Dan Gattis decided not to seek re-election when he dropped out of the S5 primary.  Some Republican is replacing him.
HD-21 (D)
HD-22 (D)
HD-24 (R)
HD-25 (R)
HD-27* (D) - Blacks beat Hispanics in a primary, especially where the incumbent Hispanic Rep Dora Olivo paid little attention to said blacks.
HD-29 (R)
HD-30 (R)
HD-31 (D)
HD-32 (R) - I was very surprised when Dems didn't bother to contest this historic swing seat that the GOP regained in 2008 after losing in 2006.  Very surprised.
HD-36* (D) - Kino Flores in Brownsville did not seek re-election due to scandal, so we get some other Dem.
HD-37 (D)
HD-38 (D)
HD-39 (D)
HD-40 (D)
HD-42 (D)
HD-43* (D) - Rios Ybarra got caught up in personal scandal when she was found to be having an affair with some developer who was divorcing his wife.  As a result, we get another South Texas Dem.
HD-44 (R)
HD-46 (D)
HD-49 (D)
HD-53 (R)
HD-54 (R)
HD-55 (R)
HD-59 (R)
HD-60 (R)
HD-61 (R)
HD-62 (R)
HD-63 (R)
HD-64 (R)
HD-65 (R)
HD-66* (R) - jimrtex covered this one in the other thread.
HD-67 (R)
HD-68 (R)
HD-70 (R)
HD-71 (R)
HD-72 (R)
HD-73 (R)
HD-75 (D)
HD-76 (D)
HD-77 (D)
HD-79 (D)
HD-80 (D)
HD-81 (R)
HD-82 (R)
HD-83* (R) - Delwin Jones was another who opposed Craddick for speaker last year and he went down pretty handily in the primary runoff.  He was 86 though, which didn't help either.
HD-86 (R)
HD-88 (R)
HD-89 (R)
HD-91 (R)
HD-94 (R)
HD-95 (D)
HD-97 (R) - Remember that Dems took this Fort Worth seat in a special in 2008 (Dan Barrett) who then lost to Mark Shelton (GOP) in the general.  No challengers to Shelton this year.
HD-98 (R)
HD-99 (R)
HD-100* (D) - I think jimrtex covered Terri Hodge's troubles enough.
HD-103 (D)
HD-104 (D)
HD-109 (D)
HD-110 (D)
HD-111 (D)
HD-112 (R) - Dems talked about the competitiveness of this Dallas seat when it opened in 2008.  Not yet.  Button got 56% in 2008 (about the McCain %) and didn't even get an opponent this year.
HD-115 (R)
HD-116 (D)
HD-118 (D)
HD-120 (D)
HD-121 (R)
HD-123 (D)
HD-124 (D)
HD-125 (D)
HD-128 (R)
HD-129 (R) - Sherrie Matula gave up this year.  It was always going to be next to impossible in current formation (McCain got 63% here) even with Davis' ethical problems.  Still a bit surprised at no opponent.
HD-130 (R)
HD-131 (D)
HD-135 (R)
HD-136 (R)
HD-139 (D)
HD-140 (D)
HD-142 (D)
HD-145 (D)
HD-146 (D)
HD-147 (D)

Contested (22 R, 35 D)
HD-1 (D) - East Texas.  McCain got 68% here.  Frost is facing the same opponent as last time who he got 54% against.
HD-3 (D) - East Texas.  McCain got 70% here.  Homer got 52% in 2008 and has survived numerous challenges, but is always in danger, especially this year.
HD-8 (R) - Cook has an opponent with no chance this time (as opposed to no opponent in 2008).  69% McCain HD.
HD-9 (R) - East Texas.  Wayne Christian gets opponents and always wins.  Yawn.  Same opponent as 2008, where he got 63%.  District is not as Republican as the 68% McCain figure provides (i.e. they don't like blacks)
HD-11 (R) - East Texas.  Chuck Hopson got tired of running for his life every election and switched from D to R.  Quite impressively won his primary (I'll admit) with 62% of the vote.  Hopson's opponent in the general is a no-name, but get's a star because of the switch.  72% McCain HD.
HD-12 (D) - East Texas.  McCain got 68% here.  McReynolds got 56% and 57% in 2006 and 2008 after barely winning in 2004.  Fortunately for McReynolds, his opponent is a black this time. (lol)
HD-17 (R) - Mostly rural Texas east of Austin.  McCain got 61% here.  Kleinschmidt (R) won the seat with 53% after the Dem here retired.  Some sustainable farmer is running against him this time.  Gets a star because he's a freshman.
HD-23 (D) - Galveston/Chambers, east of Houston.  McCain got 53% here.  Eiland hasn't had an opponent since 2000, it'll be curious to see whether he's rusty, though the opponent is a no-name.
HD-26 (R) - A good chunk of Fort Bend.  Charlie Howard didn't have an opponent in 2008, but since McCain only got 58% here, Dems put up a once Republican turned Democratic candidate.
HD-28 (R) - Wharton/Fort Bend.  Zerwas got 60% in 2008, McCain got 61%.  Dem is no-name.
HD-33 (D) - Corpus Christi area.  Ortiz Jr. is facing the same GOP Hispanic he got 59% against in 2008.  This is the least competitive of the Nueces swing seats (especially with Ortiz Jr. in - Obama got 52% here)
HD-34 (D) - Another Corpus Christi swing seat.  McCain got 51% here.  Herrero successfully defended his seat against Connie Scott getting 53% in 2008.  Scott runs again his time in what should be a better year, but I don't particularly like repeats.
HD-35 (D) - South of San Antonio area.  McCain got 55% here.  GT has performed well since taking this swing seat when it opened in 2004.  Her GOP opponent is Hispanic is far from a joke, well known and well respected in Bee County, which is the swing area of this HD.
HD-41 (D) - Brownsville.  Obama got 57% here, but it's more Democratic than that on a local level.  Not interesting.
HD-45 (D) - San Marcos area.  McCain got 52% here.  This area has been rapidly growing in recent years.  Rose got 59% in 2008, similar in 2006, whereas only getting 55% in 2004 after he barely knocked off the GOP incumbent in 2002 as a young wunderkind.  The GOP candidate has a website and it's not that bad, but he's still a newbie.  It is a swing seat if open, but Rose has been a top notch incumbent.
HD-47 (D) - Austin area.  The infamous HD-47.  Bolton got 51% against Terry Keel's sister-in-law Donna in 2008.  Obama got 54% here.  The GOP primary (and runoff) was ugly but Paul Workman won.  I expect an interesting race, but Bolton is obviously favored.
HD-48 (D) - Another Austin HD.  Obama got 53% here, as did Donna Howard, the incumbent.  The GOP candidate is former starting offensive lineman for both UT and the Denver Broncos Dan Neil.  Also should be watched IMO without high "kid" turnout.
HD-50 (D) - Another Austin HD.  Obama got 58% here.  The GOP won this one in 2002 before losing it back in 2004.  Much less likely to fall than 47 or 48, IMO.  GOP candidate is unknown.
HD-51 (D) - Another Austin HD, except Obama got 80% here (lol).  A black GOPer is running against Eddie Rodriguez (also lol).
HD-52 (D) - Diana Maldonado barely took this Williamson County HD in 2008 from the GOP.  McCain got 50% here, beating Obama by 1%.  This will be one of the GOP's top targets this time around.  Larry Gonzales won the bruising primary to face her.
HD-56 (R) - Waco area.  McCain got 69%.  Anderson's opponent is John Mabry, the incumbent who Anderson defeated in 2004 by 6 points to take the seat.  We'll see.  I doubt it.  Anderson didn't have an opponent in 2006 or 2008.
HD-57 (D) - Rest of Waco (the more Dem part), as well as rural central Texas.  McCain got 54% here.  Dunnam last had an opponent in 2004 and got 59%.  This area has a decent amount of Hispanics and blacks to prevent problems in bad election cycles and Dunnam's been around forever (which counts a lot around here).  Republican is chair of Leon County GOP (whoopty-doo)
HD-58 (R) - South of Fort Worth/Cleburne.  McCain got 74% here.  Don't know why Dem is running here.  It's a no-name.
HD-69* (D) - Wichita Falls area.  McCain got 70% here.  David Farabee, one of the last West Texas Dems retired this year.  I would be shocked if the GOP does not regain this seat as Lanham Lyne, Wichita Falls mayor, won the GOP nomination and the Dem is a complete no-name.
HD-74 (D) - West Texas/Border.  McCain go 51% here.  Pete Gallego faces Thomas Kincaid again in a repeat of 2008 where Gallego got 64%.  Kincaid's raised a little cash, and I wouldn't be surprised if it's closer, but Gallego's not in any danger IMO, especially not against a white-surnamed candidate.
HD-78 (D) - North El Paso.  Obama got 53% here.  Margo lost 52-45 here in 2008 after she knocked off the incumbent, more liberal GOPer, Pat Haggarty, and is back to try again.  IMO, her performance in the primary was weak and the Moody name is usually worth a few points in Texas regardless of wherever.  That being said, Hispanic turnout will of course be nonexistant as per usual in mid-terms and Margo will raise some money (always a key to being competitive).
HD-84* (R) - Central Lubbock.  McCain got 60% here.  Carl Isett retired to focus on his Navy career.  The McCain numbers are probably a tad deceiving as this is the heart of Texas Tech university.  The Dem does have a website and is a business owner.  The GOPer is another businessman, a Tea Party candidate and will obviously be strongly favored (this is not a rural district).  He was also Isett's preferred candidate in the primary.
HD-85 (D) - Big rural West Texas district.  McCain got 72% here.  Heflin will always be in perpetual danger and this time he'll face the same opponent he beat by 217 votes in 2006 to originally win the open seat after Pete Laney retired, Jim Landtroop.  Obviously one of the top GOP targets.
HD-87* (R) - Rural Panhandle and most of Amarillo.  McCain got 72% here.  Dem is a no-name and the GOPer is lawyer named Four Price (just great!).

[Sam Spade]

HD-90 (D) - Very Hispanic district in central Fort Worth which includes TCU (I think - not 100% sure).  Obama got 66% here.  The GOP guy is a perennial candidate in the HD (very rare for Texas) who generally has gotten about 30%-35%.  Yawn.
HD-92 (R) - Fort Worth suburbs.  McCain got 60% here.  Todd Smith faced a tough primary from a more moderate candidate Jeff Cason, partly because he authored the Voter ID bill here, which he won 60-40.  As is a story that will be repeated below, the GOP margins have declined in these same types of HDs over the decade for many reasons (minority influx, rich whites trending Dem), but this district is still very strongly Anglo and GOP (in comparison with others we'll get to).  Dem is a no-name, though kinda has a website.
HD-93 (D) - More Tarrant suburbs, this is mainly Arlington and Grand Prairie.  Obama got 54% here.  Pierson first won this seat in 2006 from the GOP incumbent and she got a strong 57% in 2008.  Good bit of Hispanic/black influx here is the reason why.  The GOP opponent is Barbara Nash who barely defeated Pierson's 2008 opponent in the primary.  On its face, she has a decent resume, being elected to the Arlington City Council, AISD Board of Trustees, etc., (a Pierson-backed candidate defeated her in the City Council position fyi) but I suspect the GOP has a better shot in other HDs.  It will be on the radar, of course.
HD-96 (D) - Southern Tarrant suburbs.  McCain got 51% here.  Still mainly Anglo area.  Bill Zedler, having lost his seat in 2008 to the Dem incumbent Chris Turner by four points, is back for a rematch.  Expect this to be a top GOP target.
HD-101 (D) - East Dallas suburbs - Mesquite and Sunnyvale.  Obama won by a 50-49 margin here.  A touch less Anglo than HD-96, for comparison.  This seat opened up in 2008, when Robert Miklos beat Bill Anderson, the GOP candidate, by a little over 500 votes.  The GOP candidate doesn't have a great website, but dominated in a primary where everyone expected a runoff.  Another top GOP target.  
HD-102 (D) - North Dallas suburbs, some of Garland.  Obama won 50-49 here too.  Kent defeated incumbent GOP rep Tony Goolsby by 6 points.  This HD is much less Anglo than 96 or 101, but the GOP has gotten a half-black former Fort Worth DA and Harvard Law School graduate to run here who destroyed her opponent (not a pushover opponent either) in the primary.  Another top GOP target.
HD-105 (R) - West Dallas suburbs, in particular Irving.  Obama got 52% here.  The Anglo population is roughly the same as 93 and 102, less than the 96, 101 and especially 92 (of those mentioned earlier.  Harper-Brown won by 19 votes over Bob Romano in 2008 - closest race of the cycle.  This time she faces Loretta Haldenwang who beat her Asian opponent in the primary by an ok margin.  Anyway, this is the top Dem target in the state and one of the few realistic ones IMO.
HD-106 (D) - West Dallas suburbs, mostly Grand Prairie.  Obama won the HD by about 100 votes.  The Anglo population is similar to 93, 102 and 105, but the black population is a good bit lower, with many more Hispanics.  England switched from GOP to Dem in 2008 and won re-election strongly (IMO) with 55% of the vote.  Facing him is a Republican businessman who has a website and probably money.  However, 2008 indicates to me that England has a bit of a personal vote, so he'll probably be tougher to for the GOP take out than 96, 101 and 102, but easier than 93 IMO.
HD-107 (D) - East Dallas suburbs, part of Garland.  McCain won 50-49 here.  This HD is more white than 93, 102, 105 and 106 but less white than 92, 96 and 101.  Vaught won his rematch with Bill Keffer in 2008, whom he defeated when the latter was an incumbent in 2006.  To be noted is the fact that it was by the exact same margin, 3 points, which is, obviously, less impressive.  This time he faces Kenneth Sheets, a Marine and a military guy for almost 40 years (though he does have a law degree (odd)).  As before, this seat will obviously be a GOP target.
HD-108 (R) - Central Dallas (Highland Park/University Park).  McCain got 52% here.  These are rich white areas (less so than 92, 96, 101 and 107) with few blacks and a burgeoning Hispanic population to the Southeast.  The incumbent, Dan Branch, got 56% and 61% in 2006 and 2008 respectively.  Dems challenged him both times, but it appears to me that Branch has a decent amount of a personal vote, so they've never had much luck.  This time the Dems run Pete Schulte, an attorney who has a personal website, and has made media appearances, but no campaign website.
HD-113 (R) - Far NE Dallas County - mostly Garland.  McCain got 55% here.  This HD is more white than 93, 96, 102, 105, 107 (barely) and 108, but less white than 92, 96 and 101.  The difference here is that these suburbs are further out and the whites less professional.  Joe Driver, the incumbent, got 59% in 2008 and 2006.  His candidate has little of a notable background that I can tell of.
HD-114 (R) - North Dallas (Bush lives here!).  McCain got 55% here.  This HD is similar to 107 in whiteness and voting patterns, difference being there are more blacks, and the whites less supported Obama.  So Will Hartnett, after getting 56% in 2006 and being unopposed in 2008 gets a challenger this time.  His name is John Wellik, who has a website and runs a small business and doesn't look to be that bad of a candidate, though with little political experience.
HD-117 (D) - West Bexar County.  Obama got 54% here.  Leibowitz has the Hispanic small businessman (John Garza) running against him who did last time.  Garza did get 43% to Leibowitz's 57% (Leibowitz got 59% in 2006 against an Anglo), so this is far from a blowout area, which makes sense since Leibowitz took the HD by defeating the prior GOP incumbent in 2004.  It's on the periphery for now, of course.
HD-119 (D) - South-central Bexar County and east Bexar (some).  Obama got 61% here.  GOP opponent is a white guy, so this is not going anywhere anyways.
HD-122* (R) - North Bexar County suburbs.  McCain got 64% here.  Frank Corte, Jr., the incumbent GOP representative, is retiring.  The GOP nominated Lyle Larson, who notably lost to Ciro Rodriguez in TX-23 last year, but this is his home base.  The Dems have nominated some Indian doctor, who does have a website and a decent resume, but not a chance in these white suburbs.
HD-126 (R) - Northwest Harris County suburbs.  McCain got 58% here.  This area has a decent amount of blacks and some Hispanics, but is still 60% white (and mainly richer ones at that).  Patricia Harless got 65% when the seat was open in 2006 and 59% in 2008 to the same opponent.  This time, she's got a black woman as an opponent.  Doubt this one's in any way interesting.
HD-127* (R) - NE Harris County suburbs.  McCain got 68% here.  Joe Crabb is retiring and Dan Huberty will replace him.  There's a Hispanic Dem here, but it don't matter here.
HD-132 (R) - West Harris County suburbs (and some rural areas).  McCain got 59% here.  Calligeri hasn't had an opponent since 2000, so maybe he's out of practice.  Dem is a no-name, however.  Yawn.
HD-133 (D) - West Houston suburbs.  Obama got 52% here.  The Anglo VAP is only 40%, there's a lot of blacks and Hispanics here.  Thibaut beat the incumbent Jim Murphy by 2% in 2008 and Murphy is back for a rematch.  As I might note below, you can once again see how much more reflexive Houston outside-the-loop suburban whites are at voting Republican than their Dallas counterparts.  Naturally, a top GOP target without Obama getting the 20% black population to turn out.
HD-134 (D) - West Houston suburbs inside the Loop and Bellaire.  McCain won here 50% to 49%.  This is a very white, wealthy HD, which includes a lot of Jewish Meyerland and Rice University.  After getting 55% in beating Martha Wong in 2006, Cohen also pulled 55% in 2008.  Republicans have put up white attorney Sarah Davis this time around, in which she had a so-so primary showing, but has a decent resume (involved politically, though not elected).  This will also be a top GOP target, though Cohen's numbers have impressed (imo).
HD-137 (D) - West Houston suburbs.  Obama got 62% here.  This area has gone very Hispanic and Asian over the years (I remember when it was white, now not many really).  Spivey, the GOP incumbent, ran in 2006 and got 42%, so obviously Hochberg is not the strongest incumbent ever (prior results are somewhat similar).  Still, no chance, not with only 20% white VAP.
HD-138 (R) - Northwest Houston suburbs.  McCain got 55% here.  Lots of Hispanics here who don't vote.  Bohac got 59% in 2008 and 58% in 2006.  His opponent is not a complete joke actually - she has worked in the legislature and her father was a State Rep from this area.  Still, a tough road, obviously, but probably the second best opportunity for Dems in Houston imo.
HD-141 (D) - North Harris County - a lot of black north Houston.  Obama got 79% here.  GOPer is a repeat candidate with no shot of anything.
HD-143 (D) - East Houston (my old home HD).  Obama got 60% here.  Hispanic area.  GOPer is a no-name Hispanic with no chance.
HD-144 (R) - Pasadena and SE Houston suburbs.  Anglos are a majority of VAP here.  McCain got 59% here.  Ken Legler barely won this open seat in 2008 by 2 points.  While his 2010 opponent is a different person, former DA Rick Molina (and I think not as strong), this is probably one of the five top Dem opportunities and probably the best in the Houston area.
HD-148 (D) - Central Houston inside the loop.  Obama got 59% here.  This HD has a number more whites than 143 so the ceiling is a good bit higher, but still no chance.  GOPer is a Hispanic.
HD-149 (D) - SW Houston suburbs.  Obama got 54% here.  Lots of Asians here.  GOP targeted Vo, who defeated the GOP incumbent in 2006 and he got 55% in 2008.  So this year, we get a GOP-nothing-special.  While I can't say for 100% this is out of the GOP radar, it's definitely not a top target.
HD-150 (R) - North Harris suburbs.  McCain got 64% here.  Dem is Riddle's 2008 opponent, who only got 34%.  Yawn.

[Mr.Phips]

So it looks like Democrats will probably be losing around 2-4 seats in the state House?

[Sam Spade]

So it looks like Democrats will probably be losing around 2-4 seats in the state House?

Depends on how well they hold up on the seats gained in 2008 and 2006 (especially 2008), which have not been discussed here yet mostly.

The danger is more in the Dems losing 10 seats than it is in the Republicans losing the House, as the Dems picked off almost all of the low-hanging fruit the last two elections and will already be down one due to HD-69.

[Mr.Phips]

So it looks like Democrats will probably be losing around 2-4 seats in the state House?

Depends on how well they hold up on the seats gained in 2008 and 2006 (especially 2008), which have not been discussed here yet mostly.

The danger is more in the Dems losing 10 seats than it is in the Republicans losing the House, as the Dems picked off almost all of the low-hanging fruit the last two elections and will already be down one due to HD-69.

Democrats would have to lose every single vulnerable seat for that to happen.  Anyway, dont these Democrats know how to use the advantages of incumbency to stay in office the way Republicans did after 1994? Jesus Christ.

[Brittain33]

What do the asterisks mean?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

What do the asterisks mean?

Open seat, I presume.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's a lot of uncontested seats.

For some reason the parties in Minnesota are far better at getting someone to run in every seat. In 2008 in fact the two major parties each ran a candidate in every single seat no matter how hopeless. Might be the convention system, it's kind of demoralizing for a group to just vote to not put up anyone. Someone is bound to volunteer.

[Sam Spade]

What do the asterisks mean?

Open seat, I presume.

Yep.  Interestingly enough, all of the races where the incumbents got defeated in primaries are uncontested in the general.

The four open R seats are unlikely to be interesting. 

HD-84 is in central Lubbock.  McCain got 60% here, and that was likely skewed a few points by college turnout (Texas Tech).

HD-87 is far north Texas and half of Amarillo.  McCain got 72% here.

HD-122 is north San Antonio white suburbs.  McCain got 64% here.

HD-127 is east Harris County suburbs/rural areas and Kingwood.  McCain got 68% here.

[jimrtex]

State Senate
Uncontested (8 R, 0 D)
SD-22* (R)

This might be contested.  The special election (runoff Today) is for the remainder of the current term.  Since the winner of the Republican primary withdrew (and there were no other primary winners) all parties can designate a new candidate.  OTOH, Democrats might figure that a contested race might draw more voters who will vote against Edwards.

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Ogden said he was going to retire, and then got back in the race.

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Prime example of Texas seat held by Democrat until 2006.  Armbrister was the one Democratic senator who did not flee to Santa Fe.  He is now Governor Perry's legislative director, and the Democrats did not bother to run a candidate in a seat that he had held since 1986.

[Sam Spade]

Thanks for the additional info and I wasn't aware of Ogden (forgot about Ambrister)

[jimrtex]

State House

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Or arrogant.

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Under the redistricting plan proposed in the House in 2001, the coastal areas of Nueces County would have been connected via Corpus Christi Bay and the Nueces River to counties in interior South Texas (Jim Wells, Duval, etc.).   Nueces County only had a bit more than enough population for 2 districts, and was losing population share, so that a district that had been 1/2 in the county in 1990 got shifted mostly outside in 2000.  Gene Seaman who was the incumbent, brought an inflatable life raft to the House floor and inflated it after his speech.
Ultimately, the LRB did the legislative redistricting, and he got counties to the north of Corpus.

In 2006, Juan Garcia was naval aviator Juan Garcia.  In 2008, Juan Garcia was Harvard Law school classmate of Barrack Obama Juan Garcia, who endorsed Obama in the primary.  Not so popular in South Texas.  Garcia is now an assistant secretary of the Navy.

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Jessica Padre and Tara Rios, Valley Girl

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Not quite big enough cities here (largest are Texarkana, Paris, and Lufkin, respectively) for Republicans to quite get over the top.

The black is White, and McReynolds raises watermelons.

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The GOP shouldn't be losing seats here.  And ought to be able to take one or two in Travis, but didn't hold those.

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These were drawn to have a safe R seat.  In 2012 could be more interesting as McClennan will be less than 1/2 of 2nd seat.

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I don't think this seat has ever had a Republican.

[Sam Spade]

did done updatin'.

Post rankings soon.

[jimrtex]

State House
HD-45 (D) - San Marcos area.  McCain got 52% here.  This area has been rapidly growing in recent years.  Rose got 59% in 2008, similar in 2006, whereas only getting 55% in 2004 after he barely knocked off the GOP incumbent in 2002 as a young wunderkind.  The GOP candidate has a website and it's not that bad, but he's still a newbie.  It is a swing seat if open, but Rose has been a top notch incumbent.

The Libertarian candidate has withdrawn and endorsed the Republican.

[jimrtex]

HD-84 is in central Lubbock.  McCain got 60% here, and that was likely skewed a few points by college turnout (Texas Tech).

Carl Isett, the incumbent who did not seek re-election has also resigned.  There will be a special election for the final two months of the term in November.  I'd be surprised if it was contested.  If it isn't, I think it can get removed from the ballot.

[jimrtex]

State Senate
Uncontested (8 R, 0 D)
SD-22* (R)

This might be contested.  The special election (runoff Today) is for the remainder of the current term.  Since the winner of the Republican primary withdrew (and there were no other primary winners) all parties can designate a new candidate.  OTOH, Democrats might figure that a contested race might draw more voters who will vote against Edwards.

This will quite likely be contested now that Brian Birdwell has been elected in the special election to fill the remaining 6 months of the 2007-2011 term.

Kip Averitt (from Waco):
1) Filed for re-nomination for the 2011-2013 (redistricting shortened full term).
2) Said he was withdrawing because of health concerns.
3) Was talked into remaining on the primary ballot to prevent outsider (politically and not from Waco) from winning by default.
4) Won primary without campaigning.  Since he was the nominee, he could withdraw and permit the party to name a replacement.  But since he was the only primary-nominated candidate, all parties would be permitted to nominate candidates.
5) Resigned 2007-2011 term, triggering special election, won last night by Brian Birdwell, over former senator David Sibley (from Waco).
6) Hinted that he might not withdraw from his nomination, which would mean that Birdwell would be senator for the remaining 6 months of the term - legislature not in session; and then Averitt would elected essentially unopposed in November.  Also Democrats would not be able to nominate anyone.
7) Has decided to withdraw from nomination, probably next week.

The party nominees for the 2011-2013 will be chosen by the county chairmen of each party, one vote per county.

There is an issue of whether Birdwell is eligible to be senator.  He maintained Texas citizenship while serving in the military (he was at the Pentagon on 9/11 where he was burned over half his body), but then lived in Virginia after separation from the military before moving to Granbury 3 years ago.

[Sam Spade]

GOP took 22 seats in the State House last night.  Complete massacre.  A 23rd (HD-48 in Austin) appears to have held by 15 votes).

So the makeup of the next session will be 99-51 GOP, if my maths are right.  Complete list below.

Naturally, nothing happened in the State Senate.

HD-1
HD-3
HD-12
HD-33
HD-34
HD-35
HD-45
HD-47
HD-52
HD-57
HD-69
HD-78
HD-85
HD-93
HD-96
HD-101
HD-102
HD-106
HD-107
HD-117
HD-133
HD-134

[Lief 🗽]

jesus.

[Sam Spade]

jesus.

Even the black defeated McDermott in the middle of east Texas.  That's a real wave.

Rose in HD-45 really surprises me too.  Same with Dunnam in Waco, but since Chet Edwards even lost McLennan county, not surprised as much.

Gallego in HD-74 only got 53% against the white-surnamed guy, fyi.

Pete Laney's old HD-85 in rural west Texas was finally lost, big.  Al would find that interesting.

HD-117 is a shocker too, but maybe the fact the GOPer was Hispanic against whitey made a difference - need to look at numbers.  Used to be a GOP district before though.

Anyway, of all of the suburban HDs that the Dems have targeted since 2004, they only held onto to Hubert Vo (HD-149) and Howard (HD-48)

[Lief 🗽]

Anyway, of all of the suburban HDs that the Dems have targeted since 2004, they only held onto to Hubert Vo (HD-149) and Howard (HD-48)

Donna Howard is my rep! I really liked Valinda Bolton though; losing her sucks. Pretty disappointing results in the Austin area all around last night...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Pete Laney's old HD-85 in rural west Texas was finally lost, big.  Al would find that interesting.

Very interesting. Totally unsurprising, of course, but no less interesting for that.

[jimrtex]

State House
Contested (22 R, 35 D)
HD-1 (D) - East Texas.  McCain got 68% here.  Frost is facing the same opponent as last time
who he got 54% against.

Lavender (R) 52% Frost (D) 41%, independent 8%.

HD-3 (D) - East Texas.  McCain got 70% here.  Homer got 52% in 2008 and has survived numerous challenges, but is always in danger, especially this year.

Cain (R) 57% Homer (D) 42%

HD-12 (D) - East Texas.  McCain got 68% here.  McReynolds got 56% and 57% in 2006 and 2008 after barely winning in 2004.  Fortunately for McReynolds, his opponent is a black this time. (lol)

White (R) 58% McReynolds 42%

HD-23 (D) - Galveston/Chambers, east of Houston.  McCain got 53% here.  Eiland hasn't had an opponent since 2000, it'll be curious to see whether he's rusty, though the opponent is a no-name.

Wilson (R) 47%, Eiland 53%.  Wilson had 74% in Chambers, which could have flipped a seat with barely over 1/4 of the population.

HD-33 (D) - Corpus Christi area.  Ortiz Jr. is facing the same GOP Hispanic he got 59% against in 2008.  This is the least competitive of the Nueces swing seats (especially with Ortiz Jr. in - Obama got 52% here)

Torres (R) 53%, Ortiz, Jr. (D) 47%   Ortiz won on election day.  More than 1/2 of votes were cast early and they were 57% for Torres.

HD-34 (D) - Another Corpus Christi swing seat.  McCain got 51% here.  Herrero successfully defended his seat against Connie Scott getting 53% in 2008.  Scott runs again his time in what should be a better year, but I don't particularly like repeats.

Scott (R) 54%, Herrero (D) 46%  This completes the flip of all 3 Nueces County seats

HD-35 (D) - South of San Antonio area.  McCain got 55% here.  GT has performed well since taking this swing seat when it opened in 2004.  Her GOP opponent is Hispanic is far from a joke, well known and well respected in Bee County, which is the swing area of this HD.

Aliseda (R) 53%; Gonzalez Toureilles (D) 47%.  Aliseda carried all counties other than Jim Wells.

HD-41 (D) - Brownsville.  Obama got 57% here, but it's more Democratic than that on a local level.  Not interesting.

Cervera (R) 44% Gonzales (D) 56%

HD-45 (D) - San Marcos area.  McCain got 52% here.  This area has been rapidly growing in recent years.  Rose got 59% in 2008, similar in 2006, whereas only getting 55% in 2004 after he barely knocked off the GOP incumbent in 2002 as a young wunderkind.  The GOP candidate has a website and it's not that bad, but he's still a newbie.  It is a swing seat if open, but Rose has been a top notch incumbent.

Isaac (R) 54% Rose (D) 46%.  The Libertarian withdrew early and endorsed Isaac.

HD-47 (D) - Austin area.  The infamous HD-47.  Bolton got 51% against Terry Keel's sister-in-law Donna in 2008.  Obama got 54% here.  The GOP primary (and runoff) was ugly but Paul Workman won.  I expect an interesting race, but Bolton is obviously favored.

Workman   (R) 49.6%, Bolton (D) 46.2%, Bailey (L) 4%

HD-48 (D) - Another Austin HD.  Obama got 53% here, as did Donna Howard, the incumbent.  The GOP candidate is former starting offensive lineman for both UT and the Denver Broncos Dan Neil.  Also should be watched IMO without high "kid" turnout.

Neil (R) 24,982   48.51%, Howard (D) 24,997 48.54%, Easton (L) 1,517 2.94%

HD-50 (D) - Another Austin HD.  Obama got 58% here.  The GOP won this one in 2002 before losing it back in 2004.  Much less likely to fall than 47 or 48, IMO.  GOP candidate is unknown.

McGuinness (R) 42% Strama (D) 55%

HD-52 (D) - Diana Maldonado barely took this Williamson County HD in 2008 from the GOP.  McCain got 50% here, beating Obama by 1%.  This will be one of the GOP's top targets this time around.  Larry Gonzales won the bruising primary to face her.

Gonzales   (R) 57%, Maldonado (D) 38%, McCoy (L) 5%.  The Williamson County Democratic chairman resigned a couple of weeks before the election and endorsed Gonzales

HD-57 (D) - Rest of Waco (the more Dem part), as well as rural central Texas.  McCain got 54% here.  Dunnam last had an opponent in 2004 and got 59%.  This area has a decent amount of Hispanics and blacks to prevent problems in bad election cycles and Dunnam's been around forever (which counts a lot around here).  Republican is chair of Leon County GOP (whoopty-doo)

Beck   (R) 52% Dunnam (D) 46%  Dunnam was head of the Democratic caucus.  He got 64% of the vote in McLennan, but only 34% in the other counties.  In 2008, 48% of the vote was cast in McLennan,  in 2010 39%.   Beck got 81% of the vote in Leon County (whoopty-doo).

After redistricting had left him out of his district (one district has to be drawn in McLennan county, with the other taking in other counties)., he bought a farm in Falls County.  A few months ago, it was pointed out that he could seen most mornings at the house he continued to own in Waco (in the other district), and that his kids were going to school there.  Dunnam said something about his critics not understanding farming and that the grass was high in Falls County because it was going to be cut for hay.  The Republicans filed a complaint, but that was probably just to publicize the issue.

HD-69* (D) - Wichita Falls area.  McCain got 70% here.  David Farabee, one of the last West Texas Dems retired this year.  I would be shocked if the GOP does not regain this seat as Lanham Lyne, Wichita Falls mayor, won the GOP nomination and the Dem is a complete no-name.

Lyne (R) 74% Dem Doe 26%

HD-74 (D) - West Texas/Border.  McCain go 51% here.  Pete Gallego faces Thomas Kincaid again in a repeat of 2008 where Gallego got 64%.  Kincaid's raised a little cash, and I wouldn't be surprised if it's closer, but Gallego's not in any danger IMO, especially not against a white-surnamed candidate.

This was back and forth depending on which counties were coming in.   It ended up 45-55 for Gallego.

HD-78 (D) - North El Paso.  Obama got 53% here.  Margo lost 52-45 here in 2008 after she knocked off the incumbent, more liberal GOPer, Pat Haggarty, and is back to try again.  IMO, her performance in the primary was weak and the Moody name is usually worth a few points in Texas regardless of wherever.  That being said, Hispanic turnout will of course be nonexistant as per usual in mid-terms and Margo will raise some money (always a key to being competitive).

Margo (R) 52% Moody (D) 48%

HD-85 (D) - Big rural West Texas district.  McCain got 72% here.  Heflin will always be in perpetual danger and this time he'll face the same opponent he beat by 217 votes in 2006 to originally win the open seat after Pete Laney retired, Jim Landtroop.  Obviously one of the top GOP targets.

Landtroop (R) 62% Heflin (D) 38%

[jimrtex]

HD-93 (D) - More Tarrant suburbs, this is mainly Arlington and Grand Prairie.  Obama got 54% here.  Pierson first won this seat in 2006 from the GOP incumbent and she got a strong 57% in 2008.  Good bit of Hispanic/black influx here is the reason why.  The GOP opponent is Barbara Nash who barely defeated Pierson's 2008 opponent in the primary.  On its face, she has a decent resume, being elected to the Arlington City Council, AISD Board of Trustees, etc., (a Pierson-backed candidate defeated her in the City Council position fyi) but I suspect the GOP has a better shot in other HDs.  It will be on the radar, of course.

Nash (R) 49.2%, Piersen (D) 47.6%, (L) 3%

HD-96 (D) - Southern Tarrant suburbs.  McCain got 51% here.  Still mainly Anglo area.  Bill Zedler, having lost his seat in 2008 to the Dem incumbent Chris Turner by four points, is back for a rematch.  Expect this to be a top GOP target.

Zedler (R) 52% Turner (D) 48%

HD-101 (D) - East Dallas suburbs - Mesquite and Sunnyvale.  Obama won by a 50-49 margin here.  A touch less Anglo than HD-96, for comparison.  This seat opened up in 2008, when Robert Miklos beat Bill Anderson, the GOP candidate, by a little over 500 votes.  The GOP candidate doesn't have a great website, but dominated in a primary where everyone expected a runoff.  Another top GOP target.  

Burkett (R) 52% Miklos 48%

HD-102 (D) - North Dallas suburbs, some of Garland.  Obama won 50-49 here too.  Kent defeated incumbent GOP rep Tony Goolsby by 6 points.  This HD is much less Anglo than 96 or 101, but the GOP has gotten a half-black former Fort Worth DA and Harvard Law School graduate to run here who destroyed her opponent (not a pushover opponent either) in the primary.  Another top GOP target.

Carter (R) 55% Kent (D) 45%  -- during the campaign, Carter was accused not only of having plagiarized Obama's biography, but his campaign speech.  She didn't require a teleprompter though.

HD-105 (R) - West Dallas suburbs, in particular Irving.  Obama got 52% here.  The Anglo population is roughly the same as 93 and 102, less than the 96, 101 and especially 92 (of those mentioned earlier.  Harper-Brown won by 19 votes over Bob Romano in 2008 - closest race of the cycle.  This time she faces Loretta Haldenwang who beat her Asian opponent in the primary by an ok margin.  Anyway, this is the top Dem target in the state and one of the few realistic ones IMO.

Harper-Brown (R) 51% Haldenwang (D) 45%

HD-106 (D) - West Dallas suburbs, mostly Grand Prairie.  Obama won the HD by about 100 votes.  The Anglo population is similar to 93, 102 and 105, but the black population is a good bit lower, with many more Hispanics.  England switched from GOP to Dem in 2008 and won re-election strongly (IMO) with 55% of the vote.  Facing him is a Republican businessman who has a website and probably money.  However, 2008 indicates to me that England has a bit of a personal vote, so he'll probably be tougher to for the GOP take out than 96, 101 and 102, but easier than 93 IMO.

Anderson (R) 49.45 England (D) 48.49%  England's father is the mayor of Grand Prairie, and longtime Republican who endorsed Bill White after the primary.

HD-107 (D) - East Dallas suburbs, part of Garland.  McCain won 50-49 here.  This HD is more white than 93, 102, 105 and 106 but less white than 92, 96 and 101.  Vaught won his rematch with Bill Keffer in 2008, whom he defeated when the latter was an incumbent in 2006.  To be noted is the fact that it was by the exact same margin, 3 points, which is, obviously, less impressive.  This time he faces Kenneth Sheets, a Marine and a military guy for almost 40 years (though he does have a law degree (odd)).  As before, this seat will obviously be a GOP target.

Sheets (R) 51% Vaught (D) 46%

HD-113 (R) - Far NE Dallas County - mostly Garland.  McCain got 55% here.  This HD is more white than 93, 96, 102, 105, 107 (barely) and 108, but less white than 92, 96 and 101.  The difference here is that these suburbs are further out and the whites less professional.  Joe Driver, the incumbent, got 59% in 2008 and 2006.  His candidate has little of a notable background that I can tell of.

Driver (R) 57%, Dorris (D) 43%

HD-117 (D) - West Bexar County.  Obama got 54% here.  Leibowitz has the Hispanic small businessman (John Garza) running against him who did last time.  Garza did get 43% to Leibowitz's 57% (Leibowitz got 59% in 2006 against an Anglo), so this is far from a blowout area, which makes sense since Leibowitz took the HD by defeating the prior GOP incumbent in 2004.  It's on the periphery for now, of course.

Garza (R) 51.9%, Leibowitz (D) 48.1%.

HD-122* (R) - North Bexar County suburbs.  McCain got 64% here.  Frank Corte, Jr., the incumbent GOP representative, is retiring.  The GOP nominated Lyle Larson, who notably lost to Ciro Rodriguez in TX-23 last year, but this is his home base.  The Dems have nominated some Indian doctor, who does have a website and a decent resume, but not a chance in these white suburbs.

HD-133 (D) - West Houston suburbs.  Obama got 52% here.  The Anglo VAP is only 40%, there's a lot of blacks and Hispanics here.  Thibaut beat the incumbent Jim Murphy by 2% in 2008 and Murphy is back for a rematch.  As I might note below, you can once again see how much more reflexive Houston outside-the-loop suburban whites are at voting Republican than their Dallas counterparts.  Naturally, a top GOP target without Obama getting the 20% black population to turn out.

Murphy (R) 56%, Thibaut (D) 42%

HD-134 (D) - West Houston suburbs inside the Loop and Bellaire.  McCain won here 50% to 49%.  This is a very white, wealthy HD, which includes a lot of Jewish Meyerland and Rice University.  After getting 55% in beating Martha Wong in 2006, Cohen also pulled 55% in 2008.  Republicans have put up white attorney Sarah Davis this time around, in which she had a so-so primary showing, but has a decent resume (involved politically, though not elected).  This will also be a top GOP target, though Cohen's numbers have impressed (imo).

Davis (R) 50.7%, Cohen 49.3%

HD-137 (D) - West Houston suburbs.  Obama got 62% here.  This area has gone very Hispanic and Asian over the years (I remember when it was white, now not many really). Spivey, the GOP incumbent, ran in 2006 and got 42%, so obviously Hochberg is not the strongest incumbent ever (prior results are somewhat similar).  Still, no chance, not with only 20% white VAP.

Spivey (R) 41% Hochberg (D) 59% on incredibly low turnout.

HD-143 (D) - East Houston (my old home HD).  Obama got 60% here.  Hispanic area.  GOPer is a no-name Hispanic with no chance.

Sylvia Garcia was beaten in the county commissioner race, BTW.

HD-148 (D) - Central Houston inside the loop.  Obama got 59% here.  This HD has a number more whites than 143 so the ceiling is a good bit higher, but still no chance.  GOPer is a Hispanic.

Herrera (R) 41%, Farrar (D) 59%

HD-149 (D) - SW Houston suburbs.  Obama got 54% here.  Lots of Asians here.  GOP targeted Vo, who defeated the GOP incumbent in 2006 and he got 55% in 2008.  So this year, we get a GOP-nothing-special.  While I can't say for 100% this is out of the GOP radar, it's definitely not a top target.

O'Connor (R) 48%, Vo (D) 52%.  O'Connor led in early voting.

So GOP picks up 22 of 24 realistic targets.

[jimrtex]

State House

HD-48 (D) - Another Austin HD.  Obama got 53% here, as did Donna Howard, the incumbent.  The GOP candidate is former starting offensive lineman for both UT and the Denver Broncos Dan Neil.  Also should be watched IMO without high "kid" turnout.

Neil (R) 24,982   48.51%, Howard (D) 24,997 48.54%, Easton (L) 1,517 2.94%

Howard wins election contest by 4.