Fox News state polls: Bush leads in OH, IA, WI, Kerry leads in FL

[Sam Spade]

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/110104_poll2.pdf

Florida: Kerry 49, Bush 44
Ohio: Bush 50, Kerry 47
Iowa: Bush 48, Kerry 44
Wisconsin: Bush 48, Kerry 45

Discussion may begin.

[Sam Spade]

Looking at the internals of these polls:  Iowa looks a bit too positive for Bush, Florida looks like a major-league outlier.  Wisconsin and Ohio look reasonable, though of course within the MOE.

[AuH2O]

throw the pollsters overboard

[millwx]

Discussion may begin.

I think you mean, "confusion may begin"... or continue.

[The Vorlon]

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.[/b]

Y B Yeats

[Reds4]

Ok, that Florida poll is very messed up. 44% approve and 51% disapprove of Bush in FL? I dont think so. What's also strange is their national poll has Kerry beating Bush by 2 points nationally, no way if Kerry's up 2 nationally that OH, IA, and WI go the way they say. These polls are about as clear as mud.

[millwx]

Ok, that Florida poll is very messed up. 44% approve and 51% disapprove of Bush in FL? I dont think so. What's also strange is their national poll has Kerry beating Bush by 2 points nationally, no way if Kerry's up 2 nationally that OH, IA, and WI go the way they say. These polls are about as clear as mud.

I think Opinion Dynamic, Gallup and Zogby are in a race to see whose state polls can be worse.  And if any of them are even remotely close to reality, it probably means Mason-Dixon isn't either... leaving us with a quartet of crap.

[lidaker]

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.[/b]

Y B Yeats

These days must be hard for you, Vorlon...

Nice poem, btw.

[DanimalBr]

I think Fox bit off more than they could chew by going with this tracking poll in the final days.  Opinion Dynamics was, and I still believe is one of the better polling firms out there.  But they've never done tracking before. 

[??????????]

A few days ago according to O.D. Bushs' JA in Florida was like 51% now its all the way down to 44%? That makes no sense.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Time to post the link to my mini-essay again: https://uselectionatlas.org/BLOGM/index.php?p=20

[Light Touch]

FL is garbage, the others look right.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

FL is garbage, the others look right.

It's pretty silly to divide these polls into "look right" and "garbage" just based on what you want the result to be, or even what you think the results should be.  If you know a firm got a bad sample (from examining the internals) or you know they use a bad methodology, you can indict polls as "garbage", but not just based on the topline numbers.

[Light Touch]

FL is garbage, the others look right.

It's pretty silly to divide these polls into "look right" and "garbage" just based on what you want the result to be, or even what you think the results should be.  If you know a firm got a bad sample (from examining the internals) or you know they use a bad methodology, you can indict polls as "garbage", but not just based on the topline numbers.

Oh, sorry, I didn't know that was part of the rules.

*rolls eyes*

The FL result doesn't mesh with the vast majority of polling done.  To me, it's trash.  Maybe I'll be wrong tomorrow night -- I suspect not.

[ATFFL]

I'm going to go hug my dog.

[Volrath50]

I'm going to go hug my dog.

The only quality pollster we have left, apparently.