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Dgov
YaBB God
Posts: 1578
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« Reply #23 on: June 26, 2010, 03:47:23 am » |
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If he does receive a primary challenge, it'll almost certainly come from the left. Moderates do not upset sitting officials in primaries without a very big reason, and Democrats still generally like Obama enough to where this won't be an issue.
As to where from the Left it would come from, it's hard to tell. He hasn't truly pissed off any significant segment of his base (but he's irritated almost all of them) to where they'd seriously consider running a candidate against him, but if one were to emerge, I'd say it's probably a Latino upset over immigration. Gallup polls show his Hispanic approval numbers have dropped significantly since January, and immigration is the issue he's done the least on.
Though if that does emerge, all it will likely do is throw some ethnic tension into the Democrat party ranks--Hispanic Democrats tend to be very socially conservative, and the social liberals make up a large enough part of the Democrat base to protect Obama from that kind of challenge. There's also the lack of Nationally prominent Hispanic politicians that could start with the kind of record Ted Kennedy did in 1980.
Assuming we get a "Hispanic Obama"--a minority who makes the big promises and speeches to a dissatisfied left, he'll be in serious trouble. Baring that, he'll almost certainly be fine fro re-nomination.
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