NC-02/SurveyUSA-Civitas Institute: Etheridge Grabs Student, Ellmers Grabs Lead

[nclib]

This is not surprising. I live in the County that holds this district together, Johnston and its solidly Repubican. Its the wheel hub if you will. Bush got 67% and McCain got 63% here. The neigboring counties like Harnett are also heavily Republican as well. The only thing that keeps this district from being solidly Republican is that the NC Legislature shoved the most Democratic parts of Raleigh into it. Without that, Obama never would have gotten within 10% of winnin this district.

NC-2 was redistricted somewhat in Etheridge's favor, but not dramatically so.

Bush (2000) margin in the old NC-2: 11.2%
Bush (2000) margin in the new NC-2: 7.0%

As for the poll, I agree that a poll taken this soon after the incident, is deceptive, but time will tell if it damaged Etheridge's support enough.

[nclib]

Ellmers seems kind of crazy from her site. Not really the type of Republican who runs well in a district designed as this one, especially as people forget about everything now in five months.

Yes, but ironically she was the least crazy GOP candidate in the NC-2 primary.

[You kip if you want to...]

This is probably his "Joe Wilson" moment. He'll be hurt, but his re-election won't be in doubt after a while.