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Author Topic: FL: Crist leads Rubio by 11  (Read 1485 times)
ajc0918
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« on: June 18, 2010, 04:12:06 pm »
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http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2010/06/chamber-poll-gov-race-tightening-crist-still-with-wide-lead.html
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Chamber poll: gov race tightening, Crist still with wide lead

The Florida Chamber just released an interesting poll. The pro-business group that has long supported Attorney General Bill McCollum and other Republicans showed close races for both the GOP gubernatorial primary and the general election match up. According to the poll, Rick Scott leads McCollum 35-30, with 33 percent undecided.

In the general election, Scott leads Alex Sink 30-26, with 15 percent going to indy Bud Chiles. With McCollum in the race, the numbers are similar, 31-26-15.

The poll shows Gov. Charlie Crist with a 42-31-14 lead over Republican Marco Rubio and likely Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek.

The survey of 607 likely Florida voters was conducted June 9-13 by the Florida Chamber of Commerce Political Institute and Cherry Communications. It has a 4 percent margin of error. The Chamber also did not release full cross-tabs or the wording of all questions.

Update: More info here:
http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_politics/2010/06/chamber-poll-rick-scott-has-5-point-edge-on-mccollum.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+news%2Fpolitics%2Fpoliticalpulse+%28Central+Florida+Political+Pulse%29
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The survey also found that Gov. Charlie Crist, running as an independent, continues to lead former Republican House Speaker Marco Rubio, with 42 percent of the vote to Rubio’s 31 percent. Another 14 percent favor  Democratic candidate Kendrick Meek, and 12 percent still undecided. Democrat Jeff Greene was not included in the survey.

In the races for three open Cabinet seats — attorney general, CFO and agriculture commissioner — the survey found that 60 to 70 percent of voters remain undecided about any of the cand.

Finally,  Crist’s approval ratings remain high — with a 60-30 approval-disapproval breakdown — even though 53 percent of voters  believe Florida is on the wrong track.

Marian Johnson, executive vice president of Political Operations for the Florida Chamber of Commerce, said that the poll found immigration and property taxes ranking among the top three issues concerning voters. Scott’s ads have hammered on his support for Arizona’s law that would allow local police to arrest people on immigration violations — while on Thursday, McCollum announced a proposal to freeze local property taxes for two years.

The survey was conducted June 9 – 13, 2010, by the Florida Chamber of Commerce Political Institute and Cherry Communications; the survey of 607 likely Florida voters has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.

Read the poll questions below:

Question: If the Republican Primary for Governor were held today, for whom would you vote?

• Bill McCollum: 30%
• Rick Scott: 35%
• Undecided: 33%

Question: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Governor Charlie Crist is doing?

• Approve: 60%
• Disapprove: 30%

Question: Do you feel things in Florida are generally headed in the right direction or have they gotten off on the wrong track?

• Right Direction: 30%
• Wrong Direction: 53%

Question: If the General Election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were Democrat candidate Kendrick Meek, Republican candidate Marco Rubio and Independent candidate Charlie Crist, for whom would you vote?

• Kendrick Meek: 14%
• Marco Rubio: 31%
• Charlie Crist: 42%

Question: In your opinion, what is the most important issue you would like the Governor and state legislature to deal with?

• Job Creation and Economy: 31%
• Education and Oil Spill: 15%
• Immigration and Property Taxes: 6%


Respondent selection was random within predetermined geographic units throughout the state to reflect actual voter turnout from past elections. Respondents were screened for likelihood of voting in the 2010 November election. Interviews were conducted by professional telemarketers.

« Last Edit: June 18, 2010, 04:28:47 pm by ajc0918 »Logged

ajc0918
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« Reply #1 on: June 18, 2010, 04:14:56 pm »
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And btw, in the very unlikely event that Crist gets 50% I will just off the skyway bridge.
« Last Edit: June 18, 2010, 04:26:20 pm by ajc0918 »Logged

SvenssonRS
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« Reply #2 on: June 18, 2010, 04:30:07 pm »
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Go Scott. Cheesy

And I've given up on that Senate race. Crist has officially pulled a Lieberman.
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« Reply #3 on: June 18, 2010, 04:41:11 pm »
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AN ELEVEN POINT LEAD?! Sad
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #4 on: June 18, 2010, 04:50:23 pm »
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AN ELEVEN POINT LEAD?! Sad

My thoughts exactly. Angry
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ajc0918
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« Reply #5 on: June 18, 2010, 05:02:07 pm »
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I highly doubt that the Democrats will manage 56% of the vote in Florida this year.  What's the history of this polling firm?

Did you add 42+14 to get 56?

I don't think that's how it works...
plus Crist has high numbers of independents and probably 15% of republicans.
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« Reply #6 on: June 18, 2010, 05:10:53 pm »
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Crist will make a great senator, even if he probably will caucus with the GOP.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #7 on: June 18, 2010, 05:18:09 pm »
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Just wondering, why does Marco Rubio has online ads attacking Meek for being a rubber stamp to the Obama agenda? Isn't the last thing he wants to do is tear down Meek?

Attacking Meek would only help Crist in the long run wouldn't it?
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« Reply #8 on: June 19, 2010, 03:14:39 am »
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If that Greene dude manages to win the Democratic nomination, Crist is probably golden. If he doesn't, I think things will remain up in the air.
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As expected the wop won.

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« Reply #9 on: June 19, 2010, 07:35:32 pm »
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Just wondering, why does Marco Rubio has online ads attacking Meek for being a rubber stamp to the Obama agenda? Isn't the last thing he wants to do is tear down Meek?

Attacking Meek would only help Crist in the long run wouldn't it?

     Online ads don't really mean anything, from what I understand. I imagine it's probably just some attempt to fire up the base or something.
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« Reply #10 on: June 19, 2010, 07:48:09 pm »
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Did anyone else lol at the issues Floridians could choose from to care about?  Because my #1 issue is totally "Education and the Oil Spill".  They're completely related!
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« Reply #11 on: June 19, 2010, 07:56:04 pm »
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AN ELEVEN POINT LEAD?! Smiley

Fix'd.

Honestly, you prefer that neo-con Rubio over a moderate like Crist?
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So a lack of knowledge means I'm not welcome here? I've always wondered why there's a lack of Republicans on this forum and now I'm beginning to see why.
King
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« Reply #12 on: June 19, 2010, 07:56:29 pm »
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According to our database, since Crist broke off as an Indy, 8 of the 11 polls released have Crist with the lead over Rubio.  And the other three were all Rasmussen polls.

Discuss.
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Senator Libertas
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« Reply #13 on: June 19, 2010, 08:05:35 pm »
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AN ELEVEN POINT LEAD?! Smiley

Fix'd.

Honestly, you prefer that neo-con Rubio over a moderate like Crist?

You think Crist won't be a neocon if he gets into the Senate?
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justW353
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« Reply #14 on: June 19, 2010, 08:13:05 pm »
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AN ELEVEN POINT LEAD?! Smiley

Fix'd.

Honestly, you prefer that neo-con Rubio over a moderate like Crist?

You think Crist won't be a neocon if he gets into the Senate?

Well, there's no way he'll caucus with the GOP, which means he'll likely caucus as a Democrat (if not change party affiliation).

I don't see him as a neo-con.  He's definitely a political opportunist, but so are 99% of other politicians.
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So a lack of knowledge means I'm not welcome here? I've always wondered why there's a lack of Republicans on this forum and now I'm beginning to see why.
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« Reply #15 on: June 19, 2010, 08:29:58 pm »
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AN ELEVEN POINT LEAD?! Smiley

Fix'd.

Honestly, you prefer that neo-con Rubio over a moderate like Crist?

You think Crist won't be a neocon if he gets into the Senate?

Neither of them are neocons.  Somebody really needs to bump that old BRTD thread on this.
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As expected the wop won.

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StatesRights
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« Reply #16 on: June 19, 2010, 08:44:24 pm »
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I will just off the skyway bridge.

I'll pay the toll for you.
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Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #17 on: June 19, 2010, 09:10:34 pm »
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AN ELEVEN POINT LEAD?! Smiley

Fix'd.

Honestly, you prefer that neo-con Rubio over a moderate like Crist?

You think Crist won't be a neocon if he gets into the Senate?

Well, there's no way he'll caucus with the GOP, which means he'll likely caucus as a Democrat (if not change party affiliation).

I don't see him as a neo-con.  He's definitely a political opportunist, but so are 99% of other politicians.

You know I find it amuzing that the guy claiming to be the outsider fighting against the broken two party system is in fact running that way because the ESTABLISHMENT OF THE FL GOP could not trick 51% of the FL GOP into voting for him in the primary. I hope Rubio is smart enough to create that narrative, establish Crist's connections to the GOP establishment including Jim Greer in a then versus now way.

Crist is has taken great advantage of the oil spill in a state that is famously anti-Oil. Rubio needs to go after the Independents and squeeze whatever GOP voters he can from Crist. While simultaneously aiding Meek by illustrating his shifting positions on the issues (Democrats realize he is an opportunist Conservative, Republicans realize he cares more about himself then any core beleifs or values).


According to our database, since Crist broke off as an Indy, 8 of the 11 polls released have Crist with the lead over Rubio.  And the other three were all Rasmussen polls.

Discuss.

I'll take this, Rasmussen is projecting higher GOP turnout as a percentage of the total vote. Since Rubio has at least 70% to 75% of the GOP that benefits him greatly (though I still expect Rubio to be at 85% of the GOP when this is over)
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ajc0918
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« Reply #18 on: June 19, 2010, 11:07:36 pm »
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According to our database, since Crist broke off as an Indy, 8 of the 11 polls released have Crist with the lead over Rubio.  And the other three were all Rasmussen polls.

Discuss.

Well, the Rasmussen polls are literally all over the place. First Rubio is up by 7, then Crist is up by 4, then Rubio is up by 8, then they're tied. Also, for all of the polls Meek is polling in the 15-19 range which is pretty consistent, so I guess you might be able to consider that his floor? I'm pretty sure there are a good amount of hardline democrat voters that are going to support Meek no matter what...

A scenario that could happen is Greene and Meek get into a huge closely contested primary (could happen) and Meek narrowly wins the nomination which could disenfranchise many of the jewish voters who would have voted for Greene(he's jewish) but are upset with Meek so they might move to Crist.
Or
Greene wins and black voters get mad, protest Greene and vote for Crist, remember Crist got 18% of the black vote as governor. It's the highest percentage a republican has ever got. And he was named the first 'black' governor.
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King
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« Reply #19 on: June 19, 2010, 11:52:06 pm »
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And Democrats that already know Meek has no chance and plan on backing Crist might go for the weaker Greene in the primary.
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« Reply #20 on: June 20, 2010, 12:01:40 am »
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Greene actually sounds pretty cool by Florida standards. Didn't he make a fortune betting against the housing bubble (Aka make millions off of morons) and was once roommates with the head of a prostitution ring?

I'd vote for him for sure if I was unfortunate enough to live in that hellhole, though I'd still vote for Crist in the general.
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« Reply #21 on: June 20, 2010, 06:45:54 am »
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AN ELEVEN POINT LEAD?! Sad

The majority of Florida voters don't quite know who Rubio or Meek is [yet].
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« Reply #22 on: June 20, 2010, 06:46:48 am »
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Greene actually sounds pretty cool by Florida standards. Didn't he make a fortune betting against the housing bubble (Aka make millions off of morons) and was once roommates with the head of a prostitution ring?

Yes, and my 3rd favorite fact is that Mike Tyson was the best man at his wedding.
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« Reply #23 on: June 20, 2010, 06:48:40 am »
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You know I find it amuzing that the guy claiming to be the outsider fighting against the broken two party system is in fact running that way because the ESTABLISHMENT OF THE FL GOP could not trick 51% of the FL GOP into voting for him in the primary. I hope Rubio is smart enough to create that narrative, establish Crist's connections to the GOP establishment including Jim Greer in a then versus now way.

Why would Rubio do that?  He's best served by letting voters forget that Crist was ever a Republican, as he needs to create the narrative that his two opponents are both liberals.  No one cares who Jim Greer was.
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« Reply #24 on: June 20, 2010, 04:48:53 pm »
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You know I find it amuzing that the guy claiming to be the outsider fighting against the broken two party system is in fact running that way because the ESTABLISHMENT OF THE FL GOP could not trick 51% of the FL GOP into voting for him in the primary. I hope Rubio is smart enough to create that narrative, establish Crist's connections to the GOP establishment including Jim Greer in a then versus now way.

Why would Rubio do that?  He's best served by letting voters forget that Crist was ever a Republican, as he needs to create the narrative that his two opponents are both liberals.  No one cares who Jim Greer was.

     There are lots of folks who like Republicans but hate the Republican establishment. I imagine Rubio could really fire up his supporters by portraying Crist as the vanquished puppet of the evil party establishment, at least as much as he could by portraying Crist as a liberal.
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