Predict the 2012 primary schedule here

[The Mikado]

Post left empty for now, will edit in content later.

[Derek]

I really wish the GOP would do 3 dates. Big states, small states, battleground states in order to make it more competitive amongst voters and less competitive amongst financial endorsements.

[Mr. Morden]

Something close to this:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2009/05/2012-presidential-primary-calendar.html

or this:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c

except with several of the states currently in February moving back to March or April.  States with Democratic governors and Democratic legislatures are the most likely to move later, because there's no contest on the Democratic side, so Dems will be more willing to go along with DNC guidelines on primary scheduling.  (Illinois has already moved back to the 3rd Tuesday of March:  link.)

Meanwhile, states with GOP governors or legislatures will not be so willing to move later, regardless of what the RNC says, because they want the influence that comes with going early.  The RNC is not going to punish them harshly enough to get them to move.  Florida is likely going to stay in late January, which means that IA, NH, NV, and SC are all going to stay in January, regardless of what the DNC or RNC say.

[Thomas D]

This is not what it will be. But it's what it should be. Iowa is on a Monday. Everything else follows a Tuesday/Saturday pattern.

March 5-Iowa
March-13-New Hempshire
March 17-South Carolina
March 20-Idaho, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Wyoming
March 24- Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont
March 27- Indiana, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin
March 31- Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee
April 3- Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma
April 7- Delaware, Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia, Washington D.C., West Virginia
April 10- Alaska, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington
April 14- Florida, Georgia
April 17- New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania
April 21- Illinois, Michigan, Ohio
April 24- California, Texas 

[BushKenya]

This is not what it will be. But it's what it should be. Iowa is on a Monday. Everything else follows a Tuesday/Saturday pattern.

March 5-Iowa
March-13-New Hempshire
March 17-South Carolina
March 20-Idaho, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Wyoming
March 24- Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont
March 27- Indiana, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin
March 31- Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee
April 3- Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma
April 7- Delaware, Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia, Washington D.C., West Virginia
April 10- Alaska, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington
April 14- Florida, Georgia
April 17- New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania
April 21- Illinois, Michigan, Ohio
April 24- California, Texas 

You mean us political junkies would have to wait to have a shortened election season?  I love having nearly an entire year of elections.  8 months is not long enough.

I don't see a problem with the 2008 calendar, personally, putting my bias aside.

[Thomas D]

You mean us political junkies would have to wait to have a shortened election season?  I love having nearly an entire year of elections.  8 months is not long enough.

I don't see a problem with the 2008 calendar, personally, putting my bias aside.

The problem I had with 2008 was all the states rushing to be first which caused a 7 week gap between Ohio & Texas on March 4 and Pennsylvania on April 22.

[BushKenya]

You mean us political junkies would have to wait to have a shortened election season?  I love having nearly an entire year of elections.  8 months is not long enough.

I don't see a problem with the 2008 calendar, personally, putting my bias aside.

The problem I had with 2008 was all the states rushing to be first which caused a 7 week gap between Ohio & Texas on March 4 and Pennsylvania on April 22.

That is true.  I had forgotten about that.

[Mr. Morden]

You mean us political junkies would have to wait to have a shortened election season?  I love having nearly an entire year of elections.  8 months is not long enough.

I don't see a problem with the 2008 calendar, personally, putting my bias aside.

The problem I had with 2008 was all the states rushing to be first which caused a 7 week gap between Ohio & Texas on March 4 and Pennsylvania on April 22.

That'll probably be fixed at least somewhat in 2012.  Illinois has already moved back to the third Tuesday or March.  Other states moved up to early Feb. last time to gain influence, but ended up realizing that it didn't gain them anything, because everyone else was moving up too.  So some of the Feb. states will move back to March or April now, while others stay in Feb., so the 2012 calendar should be more spread out than last time.

In short, the 2012 primaries will probably start just as early as 2008, but they'll be a bit more spread out.  Of course, depending on what happens in the early states, it's still possible that the GOP will coalesce around a single frontrunner early and the race will be locked up early and it'll be boring.  Or maybe not.  It depends on the candidates, and how the campaign unfolds.