2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)
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  2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)
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Author Topic: 2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)  (Read 177942 times)
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #100 on: June 22, 2010, 10:22:30 PM »


Pretty much this. I've personally switched my support to Lee(although Bridgewater has the cooler last name Tongue), so the fact that he's winning thus far makes me happy, but we'll see. It'll be interesting, seeing just how split Utah's Republicans are between establishment and Tea Party.

Technically the establishment met its Waterloo in Utah at the Convention back in May.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #101 on: June 22, 2010, 10:23:14 PM »

Utah is far too close to even attempt to call right now.  Interesting how the major counties are all pretty split evenly as well as the actual vote is.
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Torie
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« Reply #102 on: June 22, 2010, 10:30:29 PM »
« Edited: June 22, 2010, 10:32:18 PM by Torie »


Pretty much this. I've personally switched my support to Lee(although Bridgewater has the cooler last name Tongue), so the fact that he's winning thus far makes me happy, but we'll see. It'll be interesting, seeing just how split Utah's Republicans are between establishment and Tea Party.

True, but the two big counties that Bridgewater is carrying, Davis and Weber, and disproportionately in, and substantially disproportionately in. The lead in Salt Lake County is see sawing, but basically skin tight.  It may well be that Lee wins because of big margins in Dixie.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #103 on: June 22, 2010, 10:33:41 PM »


Pretty much this. I've personally switched my support to Lee(although Bridgewater has the cooler last name Tongue), so the fact that he's winning thus far makes me happy, but we'll see. It'll be interesting, seeing just how split Utah's Republicans are between establishment and Tea Party.

True, but the two big counties that Bridgewater is carrying, Davis and Weber, and disproportionately in, and substantially disproportionately in. The lead in Salt Lake County is see sawing, but basically skin tight.  It may well be that Lee wins because of big margins in Dixie.

Your analysis looks about right to me.
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Torie
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« Reply #104 on: June 22, 2010, 10:42:07 PM »
« Edited: June 22, 2010, 10:45:03 PM by Torie »

And no today precincts are in (all 38 of them), in Iron County (Cedar City), where John D. Lee and the MMM killers lived, which was then the "capital" of Dixie. I wonder by what margin Lee carries that county. That might generate a 1,000 vote pad all by itself, if my little historical theory plays out here.

Addendum: 13 of Iron's 38 precincts just came in, and Lee  carried them 3-2, generating a 450 vote margin.
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Torie
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« Reply #105 on: June 22, 2010, 10:54:21 PM »
« Edited: June 22, 2010, 11:00:33 PM by Torie »

A bit more of Dixie came in, and Davis has shot its wad, and Lee has a 2,000 vote lead now. He is going to win, unless Bridgewater has pockets of strength in Salt Lake which have not come in yet, which I guess is possible, if Bridgewater is winning the wealthier precincts (I have no idea if he is), of which Salt Lake has a considerable number, and those substantially disproportionately remain uncounted. Bridgewater is going to need to win Salt Lake County by a few thousand votes to win, assuming Utah County stays even, and I assume that it will, since that county is pretty homogenious.

Addendum: Most of the rest of Weber just came in, and that cut Lee's margin down to 1,500, and Bridgewater very narrowly carried the latest smallish batch of votes from Salt Lake. He needs to win in Salt Lake uncounted precincts by a bit more than very narrowly, maybe like 55-45, or 57-43, or something like that.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #106 on: June 22, 2010, 10:56:15 PM »

A bit more of Dixie came in, and Davis has shot its wad, and Lee has a 2,000 vote lead now. He is going to win, unless Bridgewater has pockets of strength in Salt Lake which have not come in yet, which I guess is possible, if Bridgewater is winning the wealthier precincts (I have no idea if he is), of which Salt Lake has a considerable number, and those substantially disproportionately remain uncounted. Bridgewater is going to need to win Salt Lake County by a few thousand votes to win, assuming Utah County stays even, and I assume that it will, since that county is pretty homogenious.

I agree.  I think it is pretty much over unless Bridgewater wins Salt Lake by a few thousand, at minimum.

You get your lawyer.  Tongue
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #107 on: June 22, 2010, 11:01:38 PM »

I'm sure this has been asked like 100 times, but when did South Carolina's threshold to avoid a runoff go from 35% to 50%?

It's been 50% as long as I remember, and I've been voting here since 1984.

Did a little research. I'd have to stop by the library and look in the South Carolina Code of Laws Annotated to find when the majority requirement for primaries was put into place, but the decision of Simkins v. Gressette 631 F.2d 287 mentions that the majority requirement was in place at least as far back as 1972.
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Torie
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« Reply #108 on: June 22, 2010, 11:08:20 PM »
« Edited: June 22, 2010, 11:10:16 PM by Torie »

Well a bunch more precincts in Utah County just came in, and they were not even. Lee carried them by maybe 55-45. This race is now very close to a call. Salt Lake counted a few more precincts, and Bridgewater again carried them, but again very narrowly. Not enough.

Lee has a 4,000 vote margin now, with a bunch more of Dixie left, in case Salt Lake surprises, as a pad. That is why it is very close to a call.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #109 on: June 22, 2010, 11:09:33 PM »

Well a bunch more precincts in Utah County just came in, and they were not even. Lee carried them by maybe 55-45. This race is now very close to a call. Salt Lake counted a few more precincts, and Bridgewater again carried them, but again very narrowly. Not enough.

Agreed.  I'm calling it a night.
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #110 on: June 22, 2010, 11:23:11 PM »

Another vote dump. 700 more precincts left, and Lee enlarges his lead by a few hundred votes.
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Torie
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« Reply #111 on: June 22, 2010, 11:29:46 PM »

Bridgewater needs to pull a rabbit out of the hat in Salt Lake now to have a chance, but so many precincts are out in Salt Lake, and because I don't know enough about the lay of the land there (and that place is the most heterogenious in Utah), that I don't quite want to call it yet. Someone who knew more could, perhaps. Weber has all of its precincts in (the other modest pocket of strength for Bridgewater relatively speaking), so Lee has a remaining small pad yet to come in, in Dixie (maybe a couple of thousand vote margin or something like that), so Bridgewater needs to carry the remaining half of Salt Lake votes by about 6,000 or something. That is a very tall order.
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #112 on: June 22, 2010, 11:36:09 PM »

About 550 precincts left. Lee ahead by 4500.
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Torie
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« Reply #113 on: June 22, 2010, 11:51:45 PM »

Yes, and another 150 precincts came in from Salt Lake, and Bridgewater carried them by about 52-48, far short of what he needs, and Utah County still has about 80 precincts out, and there is no reason to believe that Bridgewater will get any margin from those (and probably lose them by about 1,000 votes), and Dixie still has about 1,000 vote pad left for Lee. It's finally over. I am calling it for Lee.
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Nhoj
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« Reply #114 on: June 22, 2010, 11:53:52 PM »

AP also just called it for Lee.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #115 on: June 22, 2010, 11:54:28 PM »

AP concurs with Torie.
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #116 on: June 22, 2010, 11:55:46 PM »

Well, looks like that last minute endorsement Lee got from Ron Paul boosted him up just enough to win.

Torie, you're a clairvoyant. That was a long-ass night. Tongue
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #117 on: June 23, 2010, 12:01:38 AM »

Well thats a relief considering that since Shurtleff dropped out I have been backing Lee.


Well, looks like that last minute endorsement Lee got from Ron Paul boosted him up just enough to win.

Torie, you're a clairvoyant. That was a long-ass night. Tongue

Yea it was long probably more excruciating for the candidates.
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Lunar
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« Reply #118 on: June 23, 2010, 06:38:57 AM »

Wow, faceplant on Utah.  Lee had it in him after all!
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #119 on: June 23, 2010, 06:22:20 PM »

I'm sure this has been asked like 100 times, but when did South Carolina's threshold to avoid a runoff go from 35% to 50%?

It's been 50% as long as I remember, and I've been voting here since 1984.

Did a little research. I'd have to stop by the library and look in the South Carolina Code of Laws Annotated to find when the majority requirement for primaries was put into place, but the decision of Simkins v. Gressette 631 F.2d 287 mentions that the majority requirement was in place at least as far back as 1972.

Thanks for the infomation.  I must have been confusing South Carolina with South Dakota or Iowa.  Whatever state I was thinking of had a 35% threshold to avoid a runoff sometime in the last decade, and that obviously isn't South Carolina.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #120 on: June 26, 2010, 09:05:32 PM »

Incidentally, if anyone cares, the recount in the South Carolina 6th District Republican Primary will be held on Monday.  Here are the official results of the first count in the runoff.

Nancy Harrelson (REP)   
   49.79%   13,578
Jim Pratt (REP)
   50.21%   13,690
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #121 on: June 26, 2010, 09:23:29 PM »

Incidentally, if anyone cares, the recount in the South Carolina 6th District Republican Primary will be held on Monday.  Here are the official results of the first count in the runoff.

Nancy Harrelson (REP)   
   49.79%   13,578
Jim Pratt (REP)
   50.21%   13,690

I have to say, the ridiculously-close results of these "bunch of nobody" primaries (see also NC-12) are really entertaining.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #122 on: June 26, 2010, 11:22:15 PM »

The margin in the Maine Democratic U.S. Senate primary in 2006 (for the right to face Olympia Snowe that fall) was only 1.2%, and the losing candidate (in that primary) openly considered requesting a recount, but ended up not doing so.  The percentage margin at least was large for a recount request in a statewide race, although he could have gotten a free recount as the margin was not greater than 2%.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #123 on: July 05, 2010, 07:55:11 AM »

Updated the OP with info on next week's Alabama runoffs. Not a lot going on.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #124 on: July 09, 2010, 07:19:09 AM »

Looks like Bentley will be winning next week's runoff, if this poll is any indication:

http://blog.al.com/live/2010/07/new_poll_shows_bentley_with_su.html

He's up 53-33 over Bradley Byrne.
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