2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)
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  2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)
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Author Topic: 2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)  (Read 177940 times)
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #50 on: June 22, 2010, 07:19:15 PM »

Bernie Reeves is losing 58-42 in NC-13; it hasn't been on anyone's radar but he did raise nearly a quarter million. So it will stay off the radar.


Isn't his opponent African American?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #51 on: June 22, 2010, 07:19:34 PM »

Most of these races are already over with, so I'll just keep wasting my time here for a while.

Yeah, that's why I've already jumped to my extrapolations.  I got burned doing that for the Lincoln/Halter thread too soon, but the only surprise of the night I see at this point being a mild upset of Bridgewater in Utah by the conservative grassroots...no real impact there outside of whether the GOP gets a sewage pipe for a Senator or someone eloquent who votes the exact same.

The Lincoln/Halter extrapolation was pretty obvious once we started to get a number of full counties in.  We'll see about later...
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Lunar
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« Reply #52 on: June 22, 2010, 07:20:09 PM »

Yeah I assumed Halter was going to pull off the win before the returns really started hitting...

Dorchester is now 1/6th in and Scott is winning it 75-25. He's really beating the pants off Thurmond.

Impressive, no?

Who would have, a year ago, thought that the son of Strom could EVER be soundly beaten by a black guy in a GOP primary SC-01, especially in a case like this where all of Scott's white opponents endorsed whats-his-face-son-of-the-racist?  If post-racial politics can profoundly show up in low-turnout GOP primaries in South Carolina, our country has a promising future indeed!

Remember, Scott only got like 31% in the first round -- not really that convincing of a showing.

I wonder how long this sentiment lasts? Especially when the GOP starts hyping Scott as their Obama. Tongue Its like their fifth or sixth now I beleive.

If anyone is the GOP's "next Obama" it's Marco Rubio until if/when Scott primaries Graham.

J.C. Watts didn't really help the GOP address their disconnect with black voters, as far as I know.  

BUT it's a very promising sign that the three of the GOP's current minority rising stars are taking place in places that were once possibly the center for racist politics (SC & LA).

I guess that the epicenter for racial voting among whites may have shifted northwards towards places like West Virginia, PA-12, and Arkansas, which perhaps should be taken into account for any meta-analysis?  PA-12 was the only Kerry-McCain district...

What do you guys think?  
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #53 on: June 22, 2010, 07:21:40 PM »

OTOH, boy was Cal Cunningham a real fail candidate.

Well, he was always a flop when the DSSC ----***SCREWED***--- him over, long before Marshall entered, by refusing to get behind him out of the slim hope that Etheridge and Shuler would reverse their previous statements that they wouldn't enter the race.  Marshall got into the race when there was a complete vacuum (besides Ken Lewis), and only then did the DSSC, very late in the game, decide, "Hey, let's get behind this young, veteran and elevate his profile, even if he doesn't win, he'll be a better candidate!"  

Of course, by then, it was long too late and Marshall has better connections statewide, having run so many times for statewide and for higher office before, and better name recognition.

Cal's only hope was getting into the race early and having the field cleared for him.  So this is, in my opinion, completely on the DSSC's shoulders for not realizing the obvious early enough.

Isn't the DSCC lucky Etheridge didn't get in now?  Tongue

Though I'm not sure Marshall is much better.

Still, as I have long said, when you lose a primary, except on rare occasions, you suck more than the candidate who won.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #54 on: June 22, 2010, 07:22:12 PM »
« Edited: June 22, 2010, 07:25:28 PM by JohnnyLongtorso »

Where are y'all getting the results from? Scvotes.org is ridiculously behind.

AP, the results links are in the OP.

Bernie Reeves is losing 58-42 in NC-13; it hasn't been on anyone's radar but he did raise nearly a quarter million. So it will stay off the radar.


Isn't his opponent African American?

Apparently so.

Edit: Bill Marcy in MS-02 is also black, so black Republicans actually have a chance to win three Congressional primaries tonight.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #55 on: June 22, 2010, 07:25:32 PM »

I guess that the epicenter for racial voting among whites may have shifted northwards towards places like West Virginia, PA-12, and Arkansas, which perhaps should be taken into account for any meta-analysis?  PA-12 was the only Kerry-McCain district...

What do you guys think?  

Well, remember that places like SC-01 tend to be wealthier suburban whites who have educations (insert Al "class" quote here).
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #56 on: June 22, 2010, 07:26:44 PM »

Yeah I assumed Halter was going to pull off the win before the returns really started hitting...

Dorchester is now 1/6th in and Scott is winning it 75-25. He's really beating the pants off Thurmond.

Impressive, no?

Who would have, a year ago, thought that the son of Strom could EVER be soundly beaten by a black guy in a GOP primary SC-01, especially in a case like this where all of Scott's white opponents endorsed whats-his-face-son-of-the-racist?  If post-racial politics can profoundly show up in low-turnout GOP primaries in South Carolina, our country has a promising future indeed!

Remember, Scott only got like 31% in the first round -- not really that convincing of a showing.

I wonder how long this sentiment lasts? Especially when the GOP starts hyping Scott as their Obama. Tongue Its like their fifth or sixth now I beleive.

If anyone is the GOP's "next Obama" it's Marco Rubio until if/when Scott primaries Graham.

J.C. Watts didn't really help the GOP address their disconnect with black voters, as far as I know.  

BUT it's a very promising sign that the three of the GOP's current minority rising stars are taking place in places that were once possibly the center for racist politics (SC & LA).

I guess that the epicenter for racial voting among whites may have shifted northwards towards places like West Virginia, PA-12, and Arkansas, which perhaps should be taken into account for any meta-analysis?  PA-12 was the only Kerry-McCain district...

What do you guys think?  

I think Appalachia has always been and continues to be horrible. And the same goes for Ar-kan-sas.
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nclib
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« Reply #57 on: June 22, 2010, 07:28:01 PM »

I guess that the epicenter for racial voting among whites may have shifted northwards towards places like West Virginia, PA-12, and Arkansas, which perhaps should be taken into account for any meta-analysis?  PA-12 was the only Kerry-McCain district...

What do you guys think?  

Well, remember that places like SC-01 tend to be wealthier suburban whites who have educations (insert Al "class" quote here).

SC-1 might be the most socially moderate GOP held district in the Deep South. Not that that's saying a lot.
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
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« Reply #58 on: June 22, 2010, 07:28:11 PM »

Apparently Congressman Henry Brown has lost his race for Berkeley County Supervisor.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #59 on: June 22, 2010, 07:29:52 PM »

Apparently Congressman Henry Brown has lost his race for Berkeley County Supervisor.

Jeb Bradley anyone?
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #60 on: June 22, 2010, 07:31:14 PM »

Jeb Bradley won his election to the State Senate. That's a pretty ignominious end to Brown's career.
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Lunar
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« Reply #61 on: June 22, 2010, 07:31:37 PM »

OTOH, boy was Cal Cunningham a real fail candidate.

Well, he was always a flop when the DSSC ----***SCREWED***--- him over, long before Marshall entered, by refusing to get behind him out of the slim hope that Etheridge and Shuler would reverse their previous statements that they wouldn't enter the race.  Marshall got into the race when there was a complete vacuum (besides Ken Lewis), and only then did the DSSC, very late in the game, decide, "Hey, let's get behind this young, veteran and elevate his profile, even if he doesn't win, he'll be a better candidate!"  

Of course, by then, it was long too late and Marshall has better connections statewide, having run so many times for statewide and for higher office before, and better name recognition.

Cal's only hope was getting into the race early and having the field cleared for him.  So this is, in my opinion, completely on the DSSC's shoulders for not realizing the obvious early enough.

Isn't the DSCC lucky Etheridge didn't get in now?  Tongue

Though I'm not sure Marshall is much better.

Still, as I have long said, when you lose a primary, except on rare occasions, you suck more than the candidate who won.

True, true, I mean, candidate quality matters a lot here.  But Cal had a nice biography, but to have a chance against someone with such high name recognition, regardless of her actual potential to win, the gears had to start rotating a lot sooner.  The reason to run Cal wasn't to beat Burr, but rather to prime him for future statewide office.

I know you aren't a fan of Schumer, but you have to admit he knew a lot about recruitment and a running the right candidates in the right states [Rahm did as well fwiw].  North Carolina would have been entirely different if Roy Cooper was getting a personal call from Schumer every four hours.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #62 on: June 22, 2010, 07:32:19 PM »

Jeb Bradley won his election to the State Senate. That's a pretty ignominious end to Brown's career.

I thought he lost.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #63 on: June 22, 2010, 07:32:52 PM »

It's been called for Marshall and Haley, by the way.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #64 on: June 22, 2010, 07:34:50 PM »

Jeb Bradley won his election to the State Senate. That's a pretty ignominious end to Brown's career.

I thought he lost.

He won pretty handily, actually - 61-39.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #65 on: June 22, 2010, 07:38:02 PM »
« Edited: June 22, 2010, 07:41:44 PM by JohnnyLongtorso »

Inglis is losing Greenville 62-38 with about 60% in. He'll be lucky to break 30% at the end of this.

Edit: Called for Gowdy.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #66 on: June 22, 2010, 07:45:37 PM »

Okay, AP, I think you can call SC-01. Scott is winning 69-31 with 3/4th of the precincts in.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #67 on: June 22, 2010, 07:46:05 PM »

74-26 for Scott. Three Counties have him above 70%. The other two still have nothing in yet.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #68 on: June 22, 2010, 07:47:54 PM »

called for Scott
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #69 on: June 22, 2010, 07:48:36 PM »

Almost all of Horry came in, it went 56-44 Scott. That's what dragged him under 70%.

Called for Scott.

56 precincts in for MS-02, and only 310 votes. Boy, those must have been some boring polls to work.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #70 on: June 22, 2010, 08:00:57 PM »

Looks like it'll be Duncan in SC-03. Cash is behind by 3,800 votes, and it doesn't look like there's that much left.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #71 on: June 22, 2010, 08:01:43 PM »

What great news! I'm glad my district thinks like I do. Now on to november for Mr. Scott and Ms. Haley!
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #72 on: June 22, 2010, 08:04:53 PM »

NC-08 called for Johnson, by the way. Timmy D did manage to get 88% in Hoke County, though.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #73 on: June 22, 2010, 08:15:15 PM »
« Edited: June 22, 2010, 08:18:20 PM by JohnnyLongtorso »

McCormick came in and spiced up Duncan's lead to 4,000 votes. It's over for the ice cream man.

The black Republican won NC-13, and the black Republican is winning MS-02. Good night for black Republicans!

Edit: Everything in for SC-03, and Duncan wins by 2,200 votes.
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nclib
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« Reply #74 on: June 22, 2010, 08:21:42 PM »

I'm pleased with Marshall's win. Interesting in the county map, how concentrated Cunningham's support is.
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