2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)
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  2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)
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Author Topic: 2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)  (Read 177949 times)
JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #75 on: June 22, 2010, 08:25:39 PM »

I'm pleased with Marshall's win. Interesting in the county map, how concentrated Cunningham's support is.

He won the area where he's from, plus Winston-Salem/Greensboro -- maybe he got a lot of favorable media coverage there? And, oddly, Wilmington.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #76 on: June 22, 2010, 08:28:57 PM »

Here's the tally in the Berkeley County Supervisor race with all precincts reporting.

Henry Brown (REP)   
   44.26%   7,062
Dan Davis (REP)   
   55.74%   8,893

Only Richland County is in for the 5th Circuit Solicitor race but there aren't enough votes that Meadors can hope ro gain in Kershaw to overcome the current lead for Johnson.

Dan Johnson (DEM)   
   57.53%   8,207
John Meadors (DEM)   
   42.47%   6,058
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #77 on: June 22, 2010, 08:29:45 PM »

McCormick came in and spiced up Duncan's lead to 4,000 votes. It's over for the ice cream man.

Edit: Everything in for SC-03, and Duncan wins by 2,200 votes.

Really don't see how Cash wins in SC-03.  Duncan's base of Laurens hasn't shown up yet in the numbers.

EDIT:  That doesn't mean it won't be close.  Probably within 5 points.

Sometimes extrapolations work quite easily.  I'm now back from dinner and want to see what happens in the Utah...
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #78 on: June 22, 2010, 08:31:30 PM »

Here's the tally in the Berkeley County Supervisor race with all precincts reporting.

Henry Brown (REP)   
   44.26%   7,062
Dan Davis (REP)   
   55.74%   8,893

Henry Brown generally underperformed in his races for Congress, so its not terribly surprising he should underperform in other races too.

Noticed the Gowdy-Inglis numbers.  Now that's what I call a massacre.  Tongue
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #79 on: June 22, 2010, 08:37:58 PM »

In ridiculously-close-yet-pointless-primary news, the Republican runoff for SC-06 is currently a 29-vote margin with all but 18 precincts in.
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Smash255
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« Reply #80 on: June 22, 2010, 08:42:10 PM »

I'm pleased with Marshall's win. Interesting in the county map, how concentrated Cunningham's support is.

Well, of course you are.  When it's a man versus a woman, it's pretty clear how nclib would vote.

Something tells me if Palin gets the GOP nomination and faces Obama in 2012 the chances of nclib voting for her is somewhere around 0%
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #81 on: June 22, 2010, 08:47:14 PM »

Oh, and black Republicans got the trifecta: Marcy won in MS-02. Not that it matters in November, of course.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #82 on: June 22, 2010, 08:56:30 PM »

Oh, and black Republicans got the trifecta: Marcy won in MS-02. Not that it matters in November, of course.

You never now. Tongue Thompson could end up with $90,000 in BP bribe money. Cheesy
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #83 on: June 22, 2010, 08:58:11 PM »

I bet the Republicans are going to take a good hard look at how well Tim Scott does among black voters in November.  If he does significantly better than other Republicans on the ballot, then if South Carolina doesn't end up with a requirement to draw two minority-majority CDs based on the 2010 census results, expect to see a Scottmander be drawn that takes in as many black voters as the GOP thinks leaves Scott with a viable district to run in.  Doubtful given our politics that Scott (or any Republican) could win a minority-majority district.
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Nhoj
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« Reply #84 on: June 22, 2010, 09:11:11 PM »

Some early resulst in utah, mike lee is up on 52.63% to bridgewater's 47.37%. lee is also currently leading in salt lake county.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #85 on: June 22, 2010, 09:11:58 PM »

I bet the Republicans are going to take a good hard look at how well Tim Scott does among black voters in November.  If he does significantly better than other Republicans on the ballot, then if South Carolina doesn't end up with a requirement to draw two minority-majority CDs based on the 2010 census results, expect to see a Scottmander be drawn that takes in as many black voters as the GOP thinks leaves Scott with a viable district to run in.  Doubtful given our politics that Scott (or any Republican) could win a minority-majority district.

Well Steele did win 25% of the black vote in MD in 2006. I would hazard that SC blacks are far more Conservative then MD blacks. Its possible he might meet that if he tries hard enough with some potential for a higher performance, say like 40% or 50% when running for reelection down the road. Huckabee did that well among them in 2002 and even some of my black teachers in NC like Huckabee over many other Republicans which I can't understand. We'll see.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #86 on: June 22, 2010, 09:12:53 PM »

Some early resulst in utah, mike lee is up on 52.63% to bridgewater's 47.37%. lee is also currently leading in salt lake county.
I'm pulling for Bridgewater in this race. Utahans will be in for a surprise after this election when they'll have at least one Senator who isn't an old fart.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #87 on: June 22, 2010, 09:16:12 PM »

Some early resulst in utah, mike lee is up on 52.63% to bridgewater's 47.37%. lee is also currently leading in salt lake county.
I'm pulling for Bridgewater in this race. Utahans will be in for a surprise after this election when they'll have at least one Senator who isn't an old fart.

How old are the two candidates?
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #88 on: June 22, 2010, 09:18:58 PM »

Matheson is off to a roaring start, 65-35.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #89 on: June 22, 2010, 09:21:01 PM »

I'm sure this has been asked like 100 times, but when did South Carolina's threshold to avoid a runoff go from 35% to 50%?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #90 on: June 22, 2010, 09:21:15 PM »

Please count quickly Utah...
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #91 on: June 22, 2010, 09:21:15 PM »
« Edited: June 22, 2010, 09:27:46 PM by JohnnyLongtorso »

Here's a tentative map of the NC runoff:

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tmthforu94
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« Reply #92 on: June 22, 2010, 09:21:52 PM »

Some early resulst in utah, mike lee is up on 52.63% to bridgewater's 47.37%. lee is also currently leading in salt lake county.
I'm pulling for Bridgewater in this race. Utahans will be in for a surprise after this election when they'll have at least one Senator who isn't an old fart.

How old are the two candidates?
Mike Lee is probably in his lower 40's. Tim Bridgewater is probably closer to 50. Both relatively young though compared to Hatch and Bennett.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #93 on: June 22, 2010, 09:27:21 PM »

Some early resulst in utah, mike lee is up on 52.63% to bridgewater's 47.37%. lee is also currently leading in salt lake county.
I'm pulling for Bridgewater in this race. Utahans will be in for a surprise after this election when they'll have at least one Senator who isn't an old fart.

How old are the two candidates?
Mike Lee is probably in his lower 40's. Tim Bridgewater is probably closer to 50. Both relatively young though compared to Hatch and Bennett.


Mike Lee is actually 36, and a real nutter who has said that American law should be based on the Book of Mormon.
Hm, that doesn't sound too bad, given my knowledge of the Book of Mormon. Wink Never really researched him, but my Dad is really liking him, so I figured he might have been something awful. Maybe not...
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #94 on: June 22, 2010, 09:29:28 PM »

The only place that would seriously cost him would be SLC and right now he is winning that.
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Torie
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« Reply #95 on: June 22, 2010, 09:45:16 PM »

Looking at the county returns in Utah (mostly absentees), Lee is winning in most places, including vote heavy counties like Utah and Washington, along with Salt Lake. I suspect that he will win, unless today voters go a different direction. Lee is just a lot smarter than Bridgewater, and deserved to win.

Is there a link to the AP results?

Great news about Scott winning, and winning big. That might be the best news of the primary season so for the GOP. Good job Charleston, a city that I love anyway.  Smiley
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #96 on: June 22, 2010, 09:51:58 PM »

I'm sure this has been asked like 100 times, but when did South Carolina's threshold to avoid a runoff go from 35% to 50%?

It's been 50% as long as I remember, and I've been voting here since 1984.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #97 on: June 22, 2010, 09:58:16 PM »

The only states I know of with a 35% threshold are South Dakota and Iowa (the latter going to a convention rather than a runoff).
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Torie
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« Reply #98 on: June 22, 2010, 10:17:26 PM »
« Edited: June 22, 2010, 10:23:22 PM by Torie »

A slug of today votes just came in, and it was about evenly split between  Bridgewater and Lee. This might be a long night. Critically, Lee won the absentees in Utah County handily, but with the today votes, they were split. Bridgewater could not survive if he were thrashed in Utah County. Apparently he won't be.

Lee is thrashing Bridgewater in smaller but still significant Washington County, down in Utah Dixie, where his ancestor John D. Lee lived who led the slaughter of the Francher party in the Mountain Meadows massacre, and has thousands of descendants, including this particular Lee.
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #99 on: June 22, 2010, 10:21:00 PM »


Pretty much this. I've personally switched my support to Lee(although Bridgewater has the cooler last name Tongue), so the fact that he's winning thus far makes me happy, but we'll see. It'll be interesting, seeing just how split Utah's Republicans are between establishment and Tea Party.
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