2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

That's all, folks.

[Former Moderate]

How can someone be "openly black"?

[Sam Spade]

You forgot about the Inglis-Gowdy runoff... 

[Tender Branson]

If you had asked me earlier this month, I'd have said that Marshall will win the NC Senate primary by a 60-40 blowout.  Since then, Cunningham has been attacking Marshall for allegedly wanting to raise the retirement age, for taking money from lobbyists she regulates, and running a negative campaign in general.  I can't blame him, if he loses this race, what's he going to do?  The last time he was in politics was ten years ago, when he retired to head to Iraq (so he could use these military credentials on a future campaign!).

Right now I still think Marshall will win, but by a narrower margin.  There haven't been any polls on this race, but allegedly Cunningham's supporters are more motivated.  I don't believe tht for a minute, especially since black voters are on Marshall's side.  Basically, Cunningham is screwed among black voters, who will never vote for a white male.  It'll all come down to turnout, which is supposed to be very low - and we all know that black voters turn out.  Marshall has also narrowed the money gap slightly.  Both candidates have less than $200,000 on hand.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

You forgot about the Inglis-Gowdy runoff... 

Whoops! Added.

How can someone be "openly black"?

It was a joke. Until you stepped on it. Now it's dead.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Any recent polling on SC-01?

[Rowan]

Johnny, I really appreciate your posts on the races like this. Thanks.

[True Federalist]

By the way, there are two important SC runoffs the AP is not covering.

5th Circuit Solicitor (D)
Dan Johnson
John Meadors

Berkeley County Supervisor (R)
Henry Brown  (yes, the same Henry Brown who chose to not run for reelection in SC-01)
Dan Davis

This race was a dead heat in the first round, Davis got 40.64% of the vote and Brown got 40.62% (a 3 vote difference).
Incidentally, the AP has some test results on the SC page right now that are strongly labeled as don't use!

However, for giggles, here's who they are listing as having won the runoffs.

Attorney General (R)
Wilson 55%
Lord 45%

Governor (R)
Barrett 55%
Haley 45%

Lieutenant Governor (R)
Ard 55%
Connor 45%

Superintendent of Education (R)
Zais 55%
Moffly 45%

SC-01 (R)
Thurmond 55%
Scott 45%

SC-03 (R)
Duncan 55%
Cash 45%

SC-04 (R)
Inglis 55%
Gowdy 45%

SC-06 (R)
Harrelson 55%
Pratt 45%

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Well, Haley losing by 10% would make my night!

[Torie]

I watched on C-SPAN some of a Marshall Cunningham "debate," with this odd enabling media chick moderator, who seemed to just gush over everything either of them said, wetting her pants. Very odd. Anyway, Marshall will be shredded in the General if she wins the primary. I am quite confident Burr is rooting for her.

[Meeker]

I disagree with the move to one primary thread FWIW; the primary threads weren't clogging the board. What's clogging the board is peoples' needs to create entirely new threads for single campaign stories and also prediction/support threads.

I personally think we should go to a style of one thread per state and anything new needs to be posted in said thread.

[True Federalist]

Judging by the line on the sign-in sheet, turn out at my precinct was about the same or maybe even slightly higher than two weeks ago.  Of course, we do have a hotly contested State House runoff to generate extra heat, so my precinct may not be typical.

The State Election Commission has a link to the results now up:
http://www.enr-scvotes.org/SC/16213/28319/en/summary.html

Judging by past experience, the AP link will have the results up faster, but as a I mentioned in a prior post, the SEC site has two races of interest that the AP link doesn't.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

SC and NC have closed. SC has a few precincts in. Haley up 61-39 for Governor, Scott up 67-33 in SC-01, Cash 54-46 in SC-03, Gowdy 85-15 in SC-04 (Spartanburg, obviously).

[Lunar]

I'm only interested in Scott's and D'Annunzio's race of the ones I follow, really.  I expect Bridgewater, Marshall, and Haley to win their races.  Lee & Cunningham would be much less of a surprise than Barrett winning, of course.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I can tell South Carolina is going to be as slow tonight as it was two weeks ago.

Marshall up big in early returns, 63-37.

One precinct in for NC-08, it went for Jordan 3-1.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Scott 65%-35% over Strom spawn with two more precints from Berkley county this time.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Breaking News, guys:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QH6_xx_w8sk&feature=player_embedded

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Johnson won another precinct in Carbarus county 75-25. The total is now 73-27 district wide for Johnston.

[Lunar]

Breaking News, guys:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QH6_xx_w8sk&feature=player_embedded

lol!  Web Video #FAIL

Scott 65%-35% over Strom spawn with two more precints from Berkley county this time.

I'm rooting for Scott, even though that will help the national GOP, just out of basic sanity.  All of the national DC outlets referred to Scott as a "strong frontrunner" for the seat, even though his plurality wasn't that strong to begin with -- in the 30%'s right? -- and all of his opponents endorsed the racist's son.

I just hope the national GOP won't allow him to fail like Steele did talking about race issues, and that they won't think that their problems with reaching out to minorities are any less severe than they were yesterday.

[Sam Spade]

I doubt D'Annuzio even stands a chance of getting close.  Though I've been wrong before.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Breaking News, guys:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QH6_xx_w8sk&feature=player_embedded

lol!  Web Video #FAIL

Scott 65%-35% over Strom spawn with two more precints from Berkley county this time.

I'm rooting for Scott, even though that will help the national GOP, just out of basic sanity.  All of the national DC outlets referred to Scott as a "strong frontrunner" for the seat, even though his plurality wasn't that strong to begin with -- in the 30%'s right? -- and all of his opponents endorsed the racist's son.

I just hope the national GOP won't allow him to fail like Steele did talking about race issues, and that they won't think that their problems with reaching out to minorities are any less severe than they were yesterday.

I am sure that tomorrow he will be hailed as the "future of the GOP".

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Scott is winning Charleston 72-28 now, with about 13% of it in.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Scott up 70-30 a bunch of Charleston came in.

[VP Duke]

I voted for Scott and Haley today. I have a good feeling that at least one will win.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

SC-03 keeps flipping between Cash and Duncan. It's currently 52-48 Duncan. Is there any difference between these two guys?