2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

All of this is very upsetting. Go Coons.

You must be the only Democrat in the country who is thinking this.

Amusingly Beet basically seems to agree with the NRSC.

[Eraserhead]

PPP is tweeting about their upcoming general election poll in DE. It's going to be a funny election.

[Meeker]

Grimm is ahead 61-39 in NY-13 while Doheny leads Hoffman 54-46 in NY-23 (though Hoffman has the Conservative line so he'll be around again in November!)

Eric Wargotz seems to have recovered in the race to lose to Barbara Mikulski

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Nashua is coming in, 47-30 for Ayotte.

[Beet]

All of this is very upsetting. Go Coons.

You must be the only Democrat in the country who is thinking this.

The difference is I don't see Coons as a shoo-in. This is going to be a tough, drag out, point to point, ad to ad, house to house fight. It's not going to be one that feels particularly good, but it's going to require passion and energy. Assuming that O'Donnell can't "possibly" win the general is the best way to guarantee that, that is precisely what happens.

[cinyc]

NY AG with about 33% in (exact numbers are different for each race):



Rice Yellow, Schneiderman Orange, Coffey Green.  Dinallo in Red won Orleans County for some bizarre reason (it's 100% in, too).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

All of this is very upsetting. Go Coons.

You must be the only Democrat in the country who is thinking this.

The difference is I don't see Coons as a shoo-in. This is going to be a tough, drag out, point to point, ad to ad, house to house fight. It's not going to be one that feels particularly good, but it's going to require passion and energy. Assuming that O'Donnell can't "possibly" win the general is the best way to guarantee that, that is precisely what happens.

That must be why the NRSC is planning on vigorously funding her campaign so much...oh wait. They're not going to spend a dime on her.

BTW you do realize that in the event of a Coons victory you are opening yourself up to be as mocked by Democrats as J. J. was with his Bradley Effect nonsense in 2008?

[Lunar]

NY AG with about 25% in (exact numbers are different for each race):



Rice Yellow, Schneiderman Orange, Coffey Green.  Dinallo in Red won Orleans County for some bizarre reason (it's 100% in, too).

He won the rural caucus and gave some attention to the GLOW counties

[tpfkaw]

Oh NOEZ! Some people in another state chose a primary candidate I dislike! I'm so CONCERNED!

[Brittain33]

Beet, if Coons isn't a shoo-in, then the voters of this country clear want massive right-wing majorities in the House and Senate with any number of crazies in the mix and there's no point in us losing sleep over it.

[Sam Spade]

Presumably the nutter polled over 40% in New Castle? Can't see how else she could have won.

Yep.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oh NOEZ! Some people in another state chose a primary candidate I dislike! I'm so CONCERNED!

If you're a partisan it is concerning when it means basically throwing away a free seat.

[Beet]

All of this is very upsetting. Go Coons.

You must be the only Democrat in the country who is thinking this.

Amusingly Beet basically seems to agree with the NRSC.

No, the NRSC sees the race as lost. You see it as "funny." I see it as: Stalingrad if Coons is going to have a chance.

brittain: the voters of this country clear want massive right-wing majorities, and that's exactly why we have to fight this. It's our only shot. If there was any other scenario, there would be no point in losing sleep over it. But this is precisely the one scenario that it is worth losing sleep over.

If Coons doesn't wage a spirited campaign, O'Donnell will win. I'd bet my life savings on it.

[SPC]

That must be why the NRSC is planning on vigorously funding her campaign so much...oh wait. They're not going to spend a dime on her.

Out of curiosity, will the DSCC be spending any money on Chris Coons? If so, then that might improve the GOP's odds in the competitive states.

[tmthforu94]

If Coons doesn't wage a spirited campaign, O'Donnell will win. I'd bet my life savings on it.

You're really questioning the intelligence of Delaware voters with that statement.

[nhmagic]

Who's throwing the temper tantrum now?  ajc, you are exactly the problem in our party.  We can't change anything that they are doing with your views.  Yet, with every weasely defection like yours (like Crist, like Specter, soon Murkowski and soon Castle) we gain new people who were once democrats realizing that we are for what they stand for.  Do you see democrats switching parties because their candidate didn't win?  No, they don't and if you want to know why, it's because even though they have petty rivalries, they are always united on their end goals.  Conservatives are not united on our end goals and we need to be.  Those goals must be different goals from the democratic party.  We have to flush out people like Castle and Crist and Murkowski in order to do that.  All throughout the Bush years we had democrats and republicans joining together in an unholy union to pass spending programs and invasions of privacy.  We had democrats and republicans joining together to increase the power of the executive and weaken the power of the people.  That time is over.

Just tell me where does the "I'm more conservative" idea stop?
Ultimately how are are you willing to go to have this "conservative" purity that you want?

We don't have to be pure, but there are things going on in this country right now that we must change if the country is to survive.  This is a year to stand on principle and set a line in the sand that people must cross.  If the democrats win on their ideas then they're going to win, and we all lose.  If the democrats win because we allowed a moderate republican leadership to lead us on the slow path to decline (a moderate republican leadership that even in times of party control joins with democrats), then they still win and we all lose - and that's a damn shame because we could have done something about it like we are now.

[Dan the Roman]

These primary results are not encouraging for him. He got killed on the Cape, whereas Perry tied on the South Shore. If it is regional, Perry might be in good shape.

Can you read intraprimary regional splits onto interparty contests? Why would any Democrat on the cape vote for Keating? I'm asking sincerely. Malone isn't a regional candidate the way Perry, Keating, and O'Leary were and unlike O'Leary he pulled few votes. I guess I'm asking whether O'Leary's strength is being misinterpreted as Keating's weaknesses.

The regional split will come from the fact that Perry is from the Cape whereas Keating is not. Norfolk County is very different than the rest of the district, and while Keating will clean up there, regionalism should help Perry consolidate what Republican vote there is on the Cape. By contrast, there is limited GOP strength in Norfolk, and in a race between Keating and Norfolk candidate the Cape would have no incentive other than partisan identification.

I still have concerns that Perry is far too right-wing to win the seat. He definitely is to hold it long-term.

[Brittain33]

Up until now, I've been reading Norfolk County and yet visualizing Plymouth County as his base. Ugh.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

All of this is very upsetting. Go Coons.

You must be the only Democrat in the country who is thinking this.

The difference is I don't see Coons as a shoo-in. This is going to be a tough, drag out, point to point, ad to ad, house to house fight. It's not going to be one that feels particularly good, but it's going to require passion and energy. Assuming that O'Donnell can't "possibly" win the general is the best way to guarantee that, that is precisely what happens.

Look at PPP's twitter right now or wait until their poll comes out tomorrow. I don't even have to waste my time posting a long response to this. It should be obvious to you why O'Donnell can't win in Delaware.

[Eraserhead]

All of this is very upsetting. Go Coons.

You must be the only Democrat in the country who is thinking this.

The difference is I don't see Coons as a shoo-in. This is going to be a tough, drag out, point to point, ad to ad, house to house fight. It's not going to be one that feels particularly good, but it's going to require passion and energy. Assuming that O'Donnell can't "possibly" win the general is the best way to guarantee that, that is precisely what happens.

You're ridiculous, dude. The NRSC has dropped out. PPP says she has a 29/50 approval rating among likely voters in the general and that Castle voters favor Coons by a margin of 44-28. She has no chance.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

These primary results are not encouraging for him. He got killed on the Cape, whereas Perry tied on the South Shore. If it is regional, Perry might be in good shape.

Can you read intraprimary regional splits onto interparty contests? Why would any Democrat on the cape vote for Keating? I'm asking sincerely. Malone isn't a regional candidate the way Perry, Keating, and O'Leary were and unlike O'Leary he pulled few votes. I guess I'm asking whether O'Leary's strength is being misinterpreted as Keating's weaknesses.

The regional split will come from the fact that Perry is from the Cape whereas Keating is not. Norfolk County is very different than the rest of the district, and while Keating will clean up there, regionalism should help Perry consolidate what Republican vote there is on the Cape. By contrast, there is limited GOP strength in Norfolk, and in a race between Keating and Norfolk candidate the Cape would have no incentive other than partisan identification.

I still have concerns that Perry is far too right-wing to win the seat. He definitely is to hold it long-term.

So if he wins it wouldn't take much tweaking of it to oust him? Even if the seat can't be carved up the carving up of one requires all seats to expand, and you can bet this one will get as much Democratic territory as possible.

[Meeker]

Finally something to chew on in D.C. - Fenty leads Gray 84-15. This is what we call a white neighborhood, children.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

All of this is very upsetting. Go Coons.

You must be the only Democrat in the country who is thinking this.

The difference is I don't see Coons as a shoo-in. This is going to be a tough, drag out, point to point, ad to ad, house to house fight. It's not going to be one that feels particularly good, but it's going to require passion and energy. Assuming that O'Donnell can't "possibly" win the general is the best way to guarantee that, that is precisely what happens.

Look at PPP's twitter right now or wait until their poll comes out tomorrow. I don't even have to waste my time posting a long response to this. It should be obvious to you why O'Donnell can't win in Delaware.

Beet believed FL-19 would flip and PA-12 would be a GOP shoo-in.

[Beet]

If Coons doesn't wage a spirited campaign, O'Donnell will win. I'd bet my life savings on it.

You're really questioning the intelligence of Delaware voters with that statement.

Fine. I'm questioning the intelligence of Delaware voters.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Like she had no chance in the primary? Like Joe Miller had no chance? Like Scott BRown had no chance? When will people like you wake up? Or do you even care?

[ajc0918]

Who's throwing the temper tantrum now?  ajc, you are exactly the problem in our party.  We can't change anything that they are doing with your views.  Yet, with every weasely defection like yours (like Crist, like Specter, soon Murkowski and soon Castle) we gain new people who were once democrats realizing that we are for what they stand for.  Do you see democrats switching parties because their candidate didn't win?  No, they don't and if you want to know why, it's because even though they have petty rivalries, they are always united on their end goals.  Conservatives are not united on our end goals and we need to be.  Those goals must be different goals from the democratic party.  We have to flush out people like Castle and Crist and Murkowski in order to do that.  All throughout the Bush years we had democrats and republicans joining together in an unholy union to pass spending programs and invasions of privacy.  We had democrats and republicans joining together to increase the power of the executive and weaken the power of the people.  That time is over.

Just tell me where does the "I'm more conservative" idea stop?
Ultimately how are are you willing to go to have this "conservative" purity that you want?

We don't have to be pure, but there are things going on in this country right now that we must change if the country is to survive.  This is a year to stand on principle and set a line in the sand that people must cross.  If the democrats win on their ideas then they're going to win, and we all lose.  If the democrats win because we allowed a moderate republican leadership to lead us on the slow path to decline (a moderate republican leadership that even in times of party control joins with democrats), then they still win and we all lose - and that's a damn shame because we could have done something about it like we are now.

So would you be happy with Castle in the senate?
If not, explain?

Because he isn't conservative enough?  
the smaller you make the party the less influence you have, therefore it becomes harder to reach your goals. just my opinion