2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[cinyc]

     NH-1 called for Guinta. Now we just need a call for NH-Sen & we are done here.

Rochester seems to be the biggest town out - 6 precincts.  Most of its county has been marginal.  Some towns on the Mass border west of Nashua are also out.  The rest of what's out is scattered.

[Eraserhead]

Karl Rove unloads on O'Donnell

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Jlh1EsgS7Q&feature=player_embedded

[Marokai Backbeat]

Karl Rove unloads on O'Donnell

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Jlh1EsgS7Q&feature=player_embedded

Amazing.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Even Dick Armey has thrashed her.

[cinyc]

NH with 249/301 in and Ayotte (blue) up by 1,465 over Lamontagne (green):



Some random dude won Dixville with 3 votes (red).  Towns without polls are in yellow in this iteration of the map.  Tie=light gray.  Not reporting = dark gray.

[cinyc]

AP called NY-Rep-Lt. Gov for Edwards.  It's an all-Western New York ticket versus Cuomo's balanced ticket.

[redcommander]

Karl Rove unloads on O'Donnell

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Jlh1EsgS7Q&feature=player_embedded

Thank you Karl Rove for exposing Sean Hannity as the Neocon hack he is.

[cinyc]

The 250th NH precinct - or a restatement or absentees - caused Ayotte's lead to fall from over 1,400 to 964.

[Lief 🗽]

Hahah, Lazio will stay in the race on the Conservative line (link).

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Hahah, Lazio will stay in the race on the Conservative line (link).

So what? It doesn't really matter how Paladino and Lazio end up splitting their 40% or so of the vote.

[Ronnie]

Hahah, Lazio will stay in the race on the Conservative line (link).

ugh, why is he wasting his time?  Does he have any sense?  DOES HE ACTUALLY THINK THAT SPLITTING THE VOTE WITH ANOTHER REPUBLICAN WILL HELP HIS CHANCES, EVEN THOUGH HE DIDN'T HAVE A CHANCE IN THE FIRST PLACE?

ugh

[Smash255]

Hahah, Lazio will stay in the race on the Conservative line (link).

So what? It doesn't really matter how Paladino and Lazio end up splitting their 40% 30% or so of the vote.

Fixed

[redcommander]

Hahah, Lazio will stay in the race on the Conservative line (link).

Maybe he will come in second place. Paladino is almost as big of a disaster as O'Donnell.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Hahah, Lazio will stay in the race on the Conservative line (link).

So what? It doesn't really matter how Paladino and Lazio end up splitting their 40% 30% or so of the vote.

Fixed

Having both Paladino and Lazio on the ballot will probably bring Cuomo's share of the vote down a bit since both factions of the GOP will have their candidate to vote for.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Ayotte's lead is now at 888 votes. She's in a good position, but it's not quite over yet.

[Smash255]

Hahah, Lazio will stay in the race on the Conservative line (link).

So what? It doesn't really matter how Paladino and Lazio end up splitting their 40% 30% or so of the vote.

Fixed

Having both Paladino and Lazio on the ballot will probably bring Cuomo's share of the vote down a bit since both factions of the GOP will have their candidate to vote for.

  First off Cuomo was already going to get over 60% of the vote, rather easily.  Secondly, not sure how many people will even know Lazio is still going to be on the ballot.  Keep in mind he is completely broke.  

[Smash255]

    Ayotte's lead is now at 888 votes. She's in a good position, but it's not quite over yet.

Up to 979 with 257/301 reporting

[cinyc]

Lunar-

Actually, it sucks to be Dinallo.  The AP revised the Orleans County tally - he lost big there, too.  John Leguizamo's relatives must not live there, either.  Coffee won the county.

BTW- How did Blakeman win Otsego County?  He's not from there, and I doubt the Cooperstown area voted any differently than its neighboring counties.  Perhaps the AP count has gone wacky.

ETA - Yup.  Otsego's website shows Malpass winning the county and Rice with nowhere near 50% of the vote there, as the AP claims.

[cinyc]

    Ayotte's lead is now at 888 votes. She's in a good position, but it's not quite over yet.

Up to 979 with 257/301 reporting

Rochester was coming in, with Lamontagne winning the town by about 5 points.  Other towns must be putting Ayotte's lead back up.

[cinyc]

No more movement in NH.  They will win the slowest reporting jurisdiction race.  Even DC's almost all in - Fenty lost, per the AP.

FWIW, a straight-line projection of NH-Sen-R assuming the missing towns come in in the same percentages as the towns already in in their county (both Republican+Undeclared turnout percentage and Ayotte/Lamontagne/Other percentage) gives Ayotte about a 1,075 vote win and a 0.77 point margin.  

We'll have to wait and see if reality reflects straight-line projected math.  Or I've even done it properly.

Lamontagne leads in Hillsborough (Manchester) and Rockingham (Portsmouth) counties.  Ayotte leads in all other counties.  Coos in North Country and Strafford (Rochester) are least in.  Belknap (Keene/SW NH) and Cheshire (Laconia/Lakes) are most in.

[patrick1]

Hahah, Lazio will stay in the race on the Conservative line (link).

So what? It doesn't really matter how Paladino and Lazio end up splitting their 40% 30% or so of the vote.

Fixed

Having both Paladino and Lazio on the ballot will probably bring Cuomo's share of the vote down a bit since both factions of the GOP will have their candidate to vote for.

  First off Cuomo was already going to get over 60% of the vote, rather easily.  Secondly, not sure how many people will even know Lazio is still going to be on the ballot.  Keep in mind he is completely broke.  

I voted for Lazio yesterday and will be voting for him in November. It is not for my like of Lazio, rather my extreme distaste for the other two.  I think this will have Conservative party ballot implications as well.

[Oakvale]

Yeah, so, the Republicans pretty much blew their chances of a Senate majority? Good work, Tea Party!

[Lief 🗽]

Also, Doug Hoffman will be playing 3rd party spoiler in NY-23... again (link).

[tmthforu94]

Also, Doug Hoffman will be playing 3rd party spoiler in NY-23... again (link).

This guy is so selfish. I question the judgment of anyone who would vote for him.

[Sam Spade]

Unless something weird is out there, I suspect Ayotte wins.  She's up by 700 now.

Torie is right - turnout on the Republican side seems a little low.  Probably hurt Lamontagne.

     Agreed. The consistent erosion of Lamontagne's position as the night went on has been intriguing, to say the least. I guess it validates the hypothesis that Manchester was an area of uncommon strength for Lamontagne.

Lamontagne performed well there and decently up north.  He performed very weakly out in the western part of the state.

My point about turnout is that he would have certainly benefitted from more independents showing up.