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Author Topic: How long until we know the winner tomorrow?  (Read 2500 times)
A18
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« on: November 01, 2004, 07:12:33 pm »
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About what time do the key states' results come in?
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Erc
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2004, 07:18:47 pm »
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If all goes Bush's way, we could know by 9:05, with Texas pushing him over the top.

Of course, in that event, we'd sort of already know the results when OH & FL came in.

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A18
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2004, 07:30:07 pm »
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What time do you think Florida and Ohio will be called?

The only other election I ever followed was last year, and it's not really clear in my mind.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2004, 07:36:30 pm »
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4:00 AM 11/3
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A18
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2004, 07:37:42 pm »
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What could possibly make it last that long?
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Erc
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2004, 07:38:48 pm »
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The only comparable election is 2000, and that's not a good precedent.

I guess you could compare it 2002, which I followed relatively closely...but it's been so long I don't really remember it that well.


In 2000 they called it for Bush at 2:15 am or so.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2004, 07:40:15 pm »
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What could possibly make it last that long?

OH and FL will be "as tight as the pages in a book."*  Everyone's "fingernails will begin to sweat."*

*Cliches authored by Sir Dan Rather
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2004, 08:00:17 pm »
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I don't know how long it'll take.  As I asked in another thread, might the fact that there are so many absentee ballots being cast this year slow things down considerably?  Remember OR in 2000 remaining undecided for weeks?
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2004, 08:22:46 pm »
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I have a feeling that OH, PA, and FL are going to come in, bang-bang-bang, and we'll have a pretty good idea by then.  Maybe by 9 PM EST.
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2004, 08:30:51 pm »
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8pm. One Indiana and Kentucky are called.
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2004, 08:32:34 pm »
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8pm. One Indiana and Kentucky are called.

Right; once Kerry takes both of them he'll be well on the way to a landslide victory... Smiley

*cough*
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2004, 08:37:11 pm »
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StatesRights...I'm assuming from your avatar that you're in EST...Indiana and Kentucky will be called at 7:00, as their polls finish at 6:00 for both timezones--so 7 / 6c.  In 2000 they were called at about 6:50.


If Bush is above 60 in Indiana, though, we'll have a pretty dead-on indicator that Bush will win.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2004, 08:40:11 pm »
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StatesRights...I'm assuming from your avatar that you're in EST...Indiana and Kentucky will be called at 7:00, as their polls finish at 6:00 for both timezones--so 7 / 6c.  In 2000 they were called at about 6:50.


If Bush is above 60 in Indiana, though, we'll have a pretty dead-on indicator that Bush will win.

I was going by this.

http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/ElectionNight2004/pe2004elecnighttime.php

If Bush is between 55-56% it will be close 57+ he'll win and anything below 55%...well it will be a sad day for our nation.
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« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2004, 08:40:25 pm »
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PA and Fl should come in relatively quickly...the former going to Kerry, the latter to Bush (not by a large margin in either case, but we'll know who wins relatively quickly)

Ohio looks like its going to be a mess, and could be a big holdup.
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« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2004, 08:46:12 pm »
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Ohio will be an absolute mess.  It'll be the wee hours of Wednesday morning when we know, if even then.  I hope that Bush wins significantly enough that any challenges to the vote won't matter.

Wouldn't it be nice to go back to elections like 1996, when we knew in July who was going to be the winner?
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« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2004, 08:48:27 pm »
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I was going by this.

http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/ElectionNight2004/pe2004elecnighttime.php

If Bush is between 55-56% it will be close 57+ he'll win and anything below 55%...well it will be a sad day for our nation.

Earlier today, Senator Nym said that the networks are now going to wait until *all* the polls in a given state are closed before releasing that state's results. If that's the case, then the first results should come from GA, SC, IN, KY, VA, NH, and VT at 7pm Eastern.
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« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2004, 09:00:57 pm »
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While we might be able to read between the lines and know it earlier, I don't think that this election will be called before 11pm and Alaskans may well be able to finish voting before the result is known.
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« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2004, 09:31:15 pm »
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General outline of Election Night:  (again, if states are much closer than expected you can move out the declarations in time a bit)

7:00 Sharp:  (or a couple minutes before)

Indiana, Kentucky called for Bush

7-7:10:  SC, Georgia called for Bush, VT called for Kerry  [VA too close to call, New Hampshire either Too Close to Call or all polls not closed]

7:15-7:25:  VA called for Bush

7:30:  OH, WV too close to call.  NC either too close to call or all polls not closed

8:00:  MA, CT, ME (3/4), IL, MD, DC, DE called for Kerry.  OK, AL, MS called for Bush.  NH, TN, MO, MI, NJ, PA, FL, MECD2 called too close to call.  Polls not closed yet in MI.

8-8:30:  FL called for whoever wins it.  NJ, MI called for Kerry.  TN, MO, WV called for Bush.

8:30:  NC called for Bush.  AR called too close to call.

8:30-9:00:  PA, NH, MECD2 called for the victor.  AR called for Bush.

9:00:  CO, LA, MN, WI, NM, AZ, MI too close to call.  NY and RI called for Kerry. KS, NE, SD, TX, WY

9-9:30:  CO, LA, AZ called for Bush.  MI called for Kerry.

9:30-10:00:  Presumable dead hour.  States not yet called may get called, some states if larger margins than expected (MN/WI/OH) may get called here:

10:00:  UT, MT called for Bush.  NV, IA called too close to call.

10-11:  IA, NV, WI, MN, OH called for their respective winners.  Unless we're waiting on HI, the show's over.

11:00:  ID, ND called for Bush.  CA called for Kerry.  HI, WA, OR too close to call.

11-12:  WA, OR called for Kerry

12:  HI called, AK called for Bush.








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« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2004, 10:48:43 pm »
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I think we'll know by 7:00 am CT Wednesday at the very, very latest.  More realistically around 12:00 am or 12:30 am CT Wednesday

I think each state will come in within 150 minutes after their final polls close.  Ex:  Indiana's final polls will close at 6:00 pm CT, and thus should be called by 8:30 pm CT.  Probably that will be an hour earlier because the first Indiana Polls close at 5:00 pm CT.  Same with Kentucky
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« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2004, 12:15:25 am »
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StatesRights...I'm assuming from your avatar that you're in EST...Indiana and Kentucky will be called at 7:00, as their polls finish at 6:00 for both timezones--so 7 / 6c.  In 2000 they were called at about 6:50.


If Bush is above 60 in Indiana, though, we'll have a pretty dead-on indicator that Bush will win.

I was going by this.

http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/ElectionNight2004/pe2004elecnighttime.php

If Bush is between 55-56% it will be close 57+ he'll win and anything below 55%...well it will be a sad day for our nation.

Bush will get 57+ in Indiana, and lose the election
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Erc
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« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2004, 12:22:01 am »
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Indianometer:

Bush <57  --loss

Bush >60  --win
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2004, 12:44:20 am »
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With Indiana no longer eligible to be called at 6pm, there are better early bellweathers to look for now...particularly Virginia and New Hampshire.
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Erc
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« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2004, 01:00:31 am »
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True...but expect IN & KY to be called at 7 on the dot.  It'll take a couple more minutes for the other states to make it.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2004, 01:06:33 am »
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StatesRights...I'm assuming from your avatar that you're in EST...Indiana and Kentucky will be called at 7:00, as their polls finish at 6:00 for both timezones--so 7 / 6c.  In 2000 they were called at about 6:50.


If Bush is above 60 in Indiana, though, we'll have a pretty dead-on indicator that Bush will win.

I was going by this.

http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/ElectionNight2004/pe2004elecnighttime.php

If Bush is between 55-56% it will be close 57+ he'll win and anything below 55%...well it will be a sad day for our nation.

Bush will get 57+ in Indiana, and lose the election


Doubtful. He got 56% in 2000 and won.
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freedomburns
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« Reply #24 on: November 02, 2004, 02:07:45 am »
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I took a day of paid time off from work just so I could focus on GOTV efforts  I will also be closely following the exit poll results and the internet tomorrow.

This thing is like the superbowl to me, and it only comes once every four years.  I'm glad that election day is finally here in one hour.  The suspense is killing me...and I know some of you as well.

Cheers.  Vote early and often.  Wink


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