The outcome of the midterms and 2012?

[Kevin]

I'm starting to think that that perhaps the perspective outcomes of the 2010 midterms in relation to Obama's bid for reelection in 2012, maybe reversed.

I.e what I mean by the outcomes, I currently see two outcomes and two meanings behind them.


1, Republican landslide of 1994 proportions or bigger

. The Republicans make massive gains in the Senate(including the defeat of Harry Reid, and the picking up of seats in solidly blue state like CA and IL) and large scale gains in the House of at least 30 seats upwards. There meriting the strong chance that they take back both Houses of Congress. Republicans also seize and hold number of statehouses/ state legislatures from Maine to New Mexico. Overall a number of prominent Democrats go down in defeat, including Senate Majority Leader Reid, Senator Barbra Boxer, Deval Patrick, Blanche Lincoln, and quite a few in the House.

. However, I don't see this outcome as entirely bad for the Democrats nor entirely good for the Republicans. First off it will allow the Obama Administration in the same situation that Clinton was after 1994 in which credit can be claimed for many of the adjustments or cuts that the Republicans currently want to push through. Also it would force the Republicans to work with the Administration unless they want to be seen as the type of obstructionists that their political predecessors were immediately after taking Congress in 1994. All of this would enable the Obama Administration to move closer to the center in terms of policy and boost himself, much how Clinton did after the Democrats took massive losses in 1994.


2, Republican's fall flat on their faces/both sides trade moderate gains and losses

. The second scenario I want to consider here is that all of the Republican enthusiasm and effort falls flat and the Republicans don't make major gains on election day in 2010. With the Republicans only picking up a few Senate Seats and some in the House, the Democrats retain their overall majority in both Houses and manage to gain some seats sporadically, including picking up Senate seats in Ohio and Florida(Charlie Crist wins over Marco Rubio and caucuses with the Democrats), as well as Kentucky where Conway portrays himself as moderate to conservative Democrat against Rand Paul. On the state level, even though the Republicans pick up governorships in states like PA, MI, TN, WY, KS, OK, IA, WI and IL, the Democrats manage to gain Statehouses in CA, CT, VT, MN, HI, as well as AL and GA, with a couple of surprise results in Texas and Florida also swinging the Democrats way, and with one such result for the Republicans in NH. All of this is to serve as an example of a trade-off election.

. It would be obviously good news for the current "progressive" Administration and overall the Democratic agenda. However, it is ominous in my opinion looking forward at 2012 because the Democrats may see it as an endorsement to countunie pushing unpopular policies, and not make any major changes in terms of their positions and rhetoric even though the result of the  election wasn't an endorsement since voters where unhappy with both parties and the Administration.  While at the same time of this whimper, the Republicans could move closer to the center politically with pushback against the Tea Party Movement and current Republican leaders. Overall, the economy remains static and employment is still high.  Obama and the Democrats start getting more criticism for the handling of the economy and the enlargement of the deficit. Which means they can't blame Republican obstructionism and they have no covenant way to claim credit out of this situation.  So going into the Presidential race in 2012, I actually see the Democrats in worse shape then if they lost Congress and took heavy loses in state races.

Overall what does everyone think of these scenarios as perspective outcomes trend wise for President Obama's reelection chances?

[Derek]

Part of me hopes that we win 215 in the House and 50 in the senate but I have a feeling that we'll get about 240 in the House and 52 or 53 in the senate. Obama is too stubborn to think it could have anything to do with him though and he'll repeat his mistakes.

[Bo]

If the GOP wins, Obama's reelection odds go slightly up, but he is favored to get releected either way.

[Derek]

I think the GOP is too established to do as poorly this time around.

[memphis]

If the GOP does particularly well in the midterms, it's pretty clear that the Dems need to follow their example and make up as many false smears as possible. It doesn't really matter how plausible they are. Death panels. Government takeovers. Socialism. Etc. We need to formulate our equivalents.

[J. J.]

I think it will look a lot like 1930.  A close House and Senate.

[Kevin]

If the GOP does particularly well in the midterms, it's pretty clear that the Dems need to follow their example and make up as many false smears as possible. It doesn't really matter how plausible they are. Death panels. Government takeovers. Socialism. Etc. We need to formulate our equivalents.

and you guy's probably will

I mean he Democrats did the pretty much the same exact thing under Bush.

[Derek]

If the GOP does particularly well in the midterms, it's pretty clear that the Dems need to follow their example and make up as many false smears as possible. It doesn't really matter how plausible they are. Death panels. Government takeovers. Socialism. Etc. We need to formulate our equivalents.

Spoken like a true democrat. Way to be and at least you're honest.

[justW353]

If the GOP does particularly well in the midterms, it's pretty clear that the Dems need to follow their example and make up as many false smears as possible. It doesn't really matter how plausible they are. Death panels. Government takeovers. Socialism. Etc. We need to formulate our equivalents.

Spoken like a true democrat. Way to be and at least you're honest.

It's also spoken like a true republican...

We tried bi-partisan politics.  It didn't work, we rebounded, we got our bills passed anyways.

If the Republicans win back anything (which is intensely unlikely according to the polls), they deserve a taste of their own medicine.

[Derek]

If the GOP does particularly well in the midterms, it's pretty clear that the Dems need to follow their example and make up as many false smears as possible. It doesn't really matter how plausible they are. Death panels. Government takeovers. Socialism. Etc. We need to formulate our equivalents.

Spoken like a true democrat. Way to be and at least you're honest.

It's also spoken like a true republican...

We tried bi-partisan politics.  It didn't work, we rebounded, we got our bills passed anyways.

If the Republicans win back anything (which is intensely unlikely according to the polls), they deserve a taste of their own medicine.

2 wrongs make a right? How bout doing what's best for the country?

[Kevin]

If the GOP does particularly well in the midterms, it's pretty clear that the Dems need to follow their example and make up as many false smears as possible. It doesn't really matter how plausible they are. Death panels. Government takeovers. Socialism. Etc. We need to formulate our equivalents.

Spoken like a true democrat. Way to be and at least you're honest.

It's also spoken like a true republican...

We tried bi-partisan politics.  It didn't work, we rebounded, we got our bills passed anyways.

If the Republicans win back anything (which is intensely unlikely according to the polls), they deserve a taste of their own medicine.

What are you talking about,

Most major and reputable polls show the Republicans favored.

[hcallega]

If the GOP does particularly well in the midterms, it's pretty clear that the Dems need to follow their example and make up as many false smears as possible. It doesn't really matter how plausible they are. Death panels. Government takeovers. Socialism. Etc. We need to formulate our equivalents.

Spoken like a true democrat. Way to be and at least you're honest.

It's also spoken like a true republican...

We tried bi-partisan politics.  It didn't work, we rebounded, we got our bills passed anyways.

If the Republicans win back anything (which is intensely unlikely according to the polls), they deserve a taste of their own medicine.

What are you talking about,

Most major and reputable polls show the Republicans favored.

To gain a few senate seats, and a handfull of house seats yes. But 1994 this is not.

[Derek]

If the GOP does particularly well in the midterms, it's pretty clear that the Dems need to follow their example and make up as many false smears as possible. It doesn't really matter how plausible they are. Death panels. Government takeovers. Socialism. Etc. We need to formulate our equivalents.

Spoken like a true democrat. Way to be and at least you're honest.

It's also spoken like a true republican...

We tried bi-partisan politics.  It didn't work, we rebounded, we got our bills passed anyways.

If the Republicans win back anything (which is intensely unlikely according to the polls), they deserve a taste of their own medicine.

What are you talking about,

Most major and reputable polls show the Republicans favored.

To gain a few senate seats, and a handfull of house seats yes. But 1994 this is not.

Oh they said the same thing in 1994 and tried to explain it by saying the voters were throwing a tantrum rather than saying that the voters actually agreed with the GOP. The GOP has a good 50/50 chance at winning back the senate and will likely win the house if more people vote GOP than democrat. The math isn't hard to do.

[justW353]

If the GOP does particularly well in the midterms, it's pretty clear that the Dems need to follow their example and make up as many false smears as possible. It doesn't really matter how plausible they are. Death panels. Government takeovers. Socialism. Etc. We need to formulate our equivalents.

Spoken like a true democrat. Way to be and at least you're honest.

It's also spoken like a true republican...

We tried bi-partisan politics.  It didn't work, we rebounded, we got our bills passed anyways.

If the Republicans win back anything (which is intensely unlikely according to the polls), they deserve a taste of their own medicine.

What are you talking about,

Most major and reputable polls show the Republicans favored.

I was talking winning back either the House or Senate, which only political hacks believe they will do.

[Derek]

If the GOP does particularly well in the midterms, it's pretty clear that the Dems need to follow their example and make up as many false smears as possible. It doesn't really matter how plausible they are. Death panels. Government takeovers. Socialism. Etc. We need to formulate our equivalents.

Spoken like a true democrat. Way to be and at least you're honest.

It's also spoken like a true republican...

We tried bi-partisan politics.  It didn't work, we rebounded, we got our bills passed anyways.

If the Republicans win back anything (which is intensely unlikely according to the polls), they deserve a taste of their own medicine.

What are you talking about,

Most major and reputable polls show the Republicans favored.

I was talking winning back either the House or Senate, which only political hacks believe they will do.

No it's not just hacks. It's only out of touch democrats who think they have a lock on either house.

[Kevin]

If the GOP does particularly well in the midterms, it's pretty clear that the Dems need to follow their example and make up as many false smears as possible. It doesn't really matter how plausible they are. Death panels. Government takeovers. Socialism. Etc. We need to formulate our equivalents.

Spoken like a true democrat. Way to be and at least you're honest.

It's also spoken like a true republican...

We tried bi-partisan politics.  It didn't work, we rebounded, we got our bills passed anyways.

If the Republicans win back anything (which is intensely unlikely according to the polls), they deserve a taste of their own medicine.

What are you talking about,

Most major and reputable polls show the Republicans favored.

I was talking winning back either the House or Senate, which only political hacks believe they will do.

No it's not just hacks. It's only out of touch democrats who think they have a lock on either house.

Also besides, many reputable political commentators have also speculated that the GOP can retake ether or both Houses.

[Bo]

If the GOP does particularly well in the midterms, it's pretty clear that the Dems need to follow their example and make up as many false smears as possible. It doesn't really matter how plausible they are. Death panels. Government takeovers. Socialism. Etc. We need to formulate our equivalents.

Spoken like a true democrat. Way to be and at least you're honest.

It's also spoken like a true republican...

We tried bi-partisan politics.  It didn't work, we rebounded, we got our bills passed anyways.

If the Republicans win back anything (which is intensely unlikely according to the polls), they deserve a taste of their own medicine.

What are you talking about,

Most major and reputable polls show the Republicans favored.

I was talking winning back either the House or Senate, which only political hacks believe they will do.

No it's not just hacks. It's only out of touch democrats who think they have a lock on either house.

Also besides, many reputable political commentators have also speculated that the GOP can retake ether or both Houses.

The GOP has a small chance of retaking the House but essentially no chance at taking over the Senate.

[Vepres]

If the GOP does particularly well in the midterms, it's pretty clear that the Dems need to follow their example and make up as many false smears as possible. It doesn't really matter how plausible they are. Death panels. Government takeovers. Socialism. Etc. We need to formulate our equivalents.

Spoken like a true democrat. Way to be and at least you're honest.

It's also spoken like a true republican...

We tried bi-partisan politics.  It didn't work, we rebounded, we got our bills passed anyways.

If the Republicans win back anything (which is intensely unlikely according to the polls), they deserve a taste of their own medicine.

What are you talking about,

Most major and reputable polls show the Republicans favored.

I was talking winning back either the House or Senate, which only political hacks believe they will do.

Uh, no. They have a reasonable, if small chance, of doing so.

[Vepres]

If the GOP does particularly well in the midterms, it's pretty clear that the Dems need to follow their example and make up as many false smears as possible. It doesn't really matter how plausible they are. Death panels. Government takeovers. Socialism. Etc. We need to formulate our equivalents.

You already do. "The Republicans healthcare plan is don't get sick... and if you do get sick, die quickly."

Really, outside healthcare (a very divisive issue) Republicans have been no worse than Democrats were in the Bush years.

[Dgov]

The GOP has a small chance of retaking the House but essentially no chance at taking over the Senate.

Don't be so sure on the Senate.  If the Republicans win all of the "Tossup" seats from Cook political party index (and those are skewed towards the incumbent, so a couple such as Arkansas aren't actually "tossup" at all), the Senate gets split 50/50.  it's not totally out of reach

[memphis]

If the GOP does particularly well in the midterms, it's pretty clear that the Dems need to follow their example and make up as many false smears as possible. It doesn't really matter how plausible they are. Death panels. Government takeovers. Socialism. Etc. We need to formulate our equivalents.

You already do. "The Republicans healthcare plan is don't get sick... and if you do get sick, die quickly."

Really, outside healthcare (a very divisive issue) Republicans have been no worse than Democrats were in the Bush years.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fwUwzwompg

[Derek]

If the GOP does particularly well in the midterms, it's pretty clear that the Dems need to follow their example and make up as many false smears as possible. It doesn't really matter how plausible they are. Death panels. Government takeovers. Socialism. Etc. We need to formulate our equivalents.

You already do. "The Republicans healthcare plan is don't get sick... and if you do get sick, die quickly."

Really, outside healthcare (a very divisive issue) Republicans have been no worse than Democrats were in the Bush years.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fwUwzwompg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZGswXlKDDQ&feature=related

[NCPitt436]

I'm a registered Democrat, but I think Obama is in some real trouble right now when it comes to his approval ratings for the 2012 elections. I mean, the country is turning against him, some of his policies are losing popularity and this does appear that the oil spill is Obama's Katrina. Obama has been very weak, all over the place and it seems he does not have a clear clue as to what the heck is going on.

However, the only thing I'd caution the GOP in right now is the fact that unlike 94, their approval rating is low too. Right now everyone is low and NBC's preference poll only has the GOP up by 2. They have a lot of work to do and I think they are doing themselves a disservice by all of the nasty name calling and candidates they are for.

For example, when it comes to this race in PA, if it was Ridge and Sestak, I'd be voting for Ridge. No question. Sure, Ridge is not perfect, but I think he would have been willing to accomplish something by doing what is best, not for what is extremist. However, they have Toomey and I am not warm to him at all.

[Derek]

I think Obama is heading for the 20's this time next year. He is far too stubborn and out of touch to move to the right. It seems like HOPE is being lost haahaha. What does hope do anyhow? I've always wondered that. I don't like to hope I like to ACT.

[milhouse24]

I think the GOP will make major gains in 2010 midterms