Flipping States

[Derek]

Which 2012 candidates do you see flipping states that normally go for the democrats?

I can see Daniels flipping MN, WI, IA, and OH. Romney I can see flipping NH, ME, MI, and possibly even NJ. Location and ideology could help these candidates.

[pbrower2a]

The 2008 election:




A state that votes for the loser has much more to say about it than anything else.  So far any state that voted for McCain in 2008 showed itself more clearly Republican than the average.

I can denote those states that voted twice for Clinton but against Gore, Kerry, and Obama, the latter by margins larger than 10% in green. Those states might vote for a Democrat, but not a northern liberal or a supposed sell-out to northern liberalism.

Indiana, NE-02, and Virginia seem to have voted for a Democratic nominee for the first time since 1964, so color them (and North Carolina, which hadn't voted for a Democratic nominee since 1976) light blue.  Those are at best shaky holds for Obama in 2012.




Now let's look at states that have been very solid. Those that have never voted for any Democratic nominee for President since 1964 are in deep blue, and those that haven't voted for a Republican nominee since 1988 in deep red.  States that last voted for a Democrat when the Democrat was Jimmy Carter are in deep green.



Colorado and Nevada went decisively for Obama in 2012. but went for Dubya twice. Color them pink. The three states that went for Dubya once are in plain red.  Florida, Georgia, Missouri, and Ohio are the arguable swing states of recent elections -- in white.

[Derek]

The 2008 election:




A state that votes for the loser has much more to say about it than anything else.  So far any state that voted for McCain in 2008 showed itself more clearly Republican than the average.

I can denote those states that voted twice for Clinton but against Gore, Kerry, and Obama, the latter by margins larger than 10% in green. Those states might vote for a Democrat, but not a northern liberal or a supposed sell-out to northern liberalism.

Indiana, NE-02, and Virginia seem to have voted for a Democratic nominee for the first time since 1964, so color them (and North Carolina, which hadn't voted for a Democratic nominee since 1976) light blue.  Those are at best shaky holds for Obama in 2012.




Now let's look at states that have been very solid. Those that have never voted for any Democratic nominee for President since 1964 are in deep blue, and those that haven't voted for a Republican nominee since 1988 in deep red.  States that last voted for a Democrat when the Democrat was Jimmy Carter are in deep green.



Colorado and Nevada went decisively for Obama in 2012. but went for Dubya twice. Color them pink. The three states that went for Dubya once are in plain red.  Florida, Georgia, Missouri, and Ohio are the arguable swing states of recent elections -- in white.

What does that have to do with Romney or Daniels flipping states? Georgia is decisively Republican at the federal level.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Honestly, I only see Daniels flipping any states.  I think it's a possibility for Romney to do so, but I'm doubtful.

Top states needed for Daniels (and pretty much Romney), in order of Difficulty (least to greatest):

1.  Indiana
2.  North Carolina
3.  Florida
4.  Nevada
5.  Virginia
6.  Colorado
7.  Ohio

[Derek]

Honestly, I only see Daniels flipping any states.  I think it's a possibility for Romney to do so, but I'm doubtful.

Top states needed for Daniels (and pretty much Romney), in order of Difficulty (least to greatest):

1.  Indiana
2.  North Carolina
3.  Florida
4.  Nevada
5.  Virginia
6.  Colorado
7.  Ohio

Those should be givens other than Colorado.  I see him flipping MN, WI, and IA as a midwesterner who can relate better to them than an angry elitist who uses strange terms like "if they bring a knife we bring a gun" or "know whose ass to kick." I can see Romney flipping some of the northeast.

[pbrower2a]

Honestly, I only see Daniels flipping any states.  I think it's a possibility for Romney to do so, but I'm doubtful.

Top states needed for Daniels (and pretty much Romney), in order of Difficulty (least to greatest):

1.  Indiana
2.  North Carolina
3.  Florida
4.  Nevada
5.  Virginia
6.  Colorado
7.  Ohio

Those should be givens other than Colorado.  I see him flipping MN, WI, and IA as a midwesterner who can relate better to them than an angry elitist who uses strange terms like "if they bring a knife we bring a gun" or "know whose ass to kick." I can see Romney flipping some of the northeast.

ArchangelZero has a good point.  Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia have little heritage of voting for Democrats at the Presidential level, and they will be difficult holds for Obama.  Indiana in 2008 may have been a freakish situation in which everything went wrong for the Republicans, and the ability of Virginia voters to elect Hard Right Republicans (granted, the hid their Hard Right identities well) for statewide offices in an odd-year election shows what happens if the voter turnout is low. North Carolina could have easily gone the other way; it is arguably the inverse of Missouri, which Obama barely lost. Add the votes for Bob Barr (who got no left-leaning votes) and John McCain together and those of Ralph Nader (who got no Right-leaning votes) and Barack Obama together in both Missouri and North Carolina, and Obama wins Missouri and McCain wins North Carolina. NE-02 is much the same thing. Until I see evidence to the contrary I see those as GOP pickups in 2012. 

Florida and Ohio are the classic swing states; had Al Gore won Florida in 2000, then we would not have had the Presidential disaster that we had. (Face it, Republicans -- George W. Bush was a dreadful President, and you will have to live down his corruption and incompetence for decades; your Presidential nominees will have to distance themselves from him by showing how unlike him they are). Had John Kerry won Ohio, then George W. Bush would have been a one-term President and America would have been solving many problems that without solution blew up in 2005 to now. I could make the case that Georgia and Missouri, both of which Obama lost by 5% or less, are in  the same group. Republicans will have to defend Georgia and Missouri. Any successful resolution of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq flips Georgia, which has a large military presence and many young conservative voters.

OK -- so if the Republicans are lucky, they hold onto Georgia and Missouri, take back Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia, and win back Florida and Ohio. But they must win every one of those, something that nobody can reasonably promise.

Then there are Colorado and Nevada.  They aren't and have not been the classic bellwether states, but they hold a huge opportunity and hazard for the Republicans -- fast-growing Hispanic electorates. Think about that. It will not be enough to translate Hard Right literature into Spanish. Democrats can turn the racist demagoguery of Tom Tancredo against the GOP. Basically, if Obama keeps every state in deep red and medium red  but loses everything in white or any shade of blue or green on the above map,  then he will have to win Colorado and Nevada. But winning Colorado and Nevada together may prove easier than winning any one of Georgia, Missouri, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, and Ohio --- every one of which is a must-win for the GOP. (I didn't mention Indiana because Obama is not going to win Indiana without also winning either Ohio, Missouri, or Virginia). 

[Yelnoc]

According to 270towin's projection of the 2012 EV's, if the Republicans win all of the blue, green, and white states while losing the red and pink ones they will lose the election 273-265.  However, if they managed to flip New Hampshire it would be an electoral tie and flipping Colorada or Nevade would give them the win.

[opebo]

Here are the states which will flip compared to 2008, and the way they will flip:

[Derek]

Here are the states which will flip compared to 2008, and the way they will flip:

That's 281?

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Here are the states which will flip compared to 2008, and the way they will flip:

Thank you for further proving my point.

[Derek]

Those shouldn't be hard states to flip.

[Senator Libertas]

[Derek]

You think those states will go that way next time? What can you do to get NY to flip to GOP?

[Mr. A]

^Nominate Hitler as the Democrat

[Derek]

^Nominate Hitler as the Democrat

Idk if that's going far enough or not.

[pbrower2a]

Here are the states which potentially flip compared to 2008, and the way they will flip:




Margins will generally be smaller in all but "swing" states. I expect few flips either way -- but not enough for the GOP nominee.

[Senator Libertas]

Here are the states which potentially flip compared to 2008, and the way they will flip:




Margins will generally be smaller in all but "swing" states. I expect few flips either way -- but not enough for the GOP nominee.

LOL @ Texas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia.

[Derek]

Here are the states which potentially flip compared to 2008, and the way they will flip:




Margins will generally be smaller in all but "swing" states. I expect few flips either way -- but not enough for the GOP nominee.

LOL @ Texas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia.

Did you get the colors wrong?

[pbrower2a]

Here are the states which potentially flip compared to 2008, and the way they will flip:




Margins will generally be smaller in all but "swing" states. I expect few flips either way -- but not enough for the GOP nominee.

LOL @ Texas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia.

I just say that they will be much closer in 2012.

[Derek]

Here are the states which potentially flip compared to 2008, and the way they will flip:




Margins will generally be smaller in all but "swing" states. I expect few flips either way -- but not enough for the GOP nominee.

LOL @ Texas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia.

I just say that they will be much closer in 2012.

The states you have in red will be in the likely GOP column and about 10 points in their favor. The blue states you have will be within 5-10 for the most part. Ohio and Colorado maybe closer than 5 points.

[Senator Libertas]

Here are the states which potentially flip compared to 2008, and the way they will flip:




Margins will generally be smaller in all but "swing" states. I expect few flips either way -- but not enough for the GOP nominee.

LOL @ Texas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia.

I just say that they will be much closer in 2012.

No, you clearly said "flip", not "swing".

[Derek]

Here are the states which potentially flip compared to 2008, and the way they will flip:




Margins will generally be smaller in all but "swing" states. I expect few flips either way -- but not enough for the GOP nominee.

LOL @ Texas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia.

I just say that they will be much closer in 2012.

No, you clearly said "flip", not "swing".

That's the same thing. Which states do you think that Daniels and Romney could take that are normally democrat or lean democrat?

[Senator Libertas]

Here are the states which potentially flip compared to 2008, and the way they will flip:




Margins will generally be smaller in all but "swing" states. I expect few flips either way -- but not enough for the GOP nominee.

LOL @ Texas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia.

I just say that they will be much closer in 2012.

No, you clearly said "flip", not "swing".

That's the same thing. Which states do you think that Daniels and Romney could take that are normally democrat or lean democrat?

No, "flip" and "swing" are two different things.

[Derek]

Here are the states which potentially flip compared to 2008, and the way they will flip:




Margins will generally be smaller in all but "swing" states. I expect few flips either way -- but not enough for the GOP nominee.

LOL @ Texas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia.

I just say that they will be much closer in 2012.

No, you clearly said "flip", not "swing".

That's the same thing. Which states do you think that Daniels and Romney could take that are normally democrat or lean democrat?

No, "flip" and "swing" are two different things.

So which states do you think Daniels and Romney could win that are normally democrat or lean democrat?

[Senator Libertas]

Here are the states which potentially flip compared to 2008, and the way they will flip:




Margins will generally be smaller in all but "swing" states. I expect few flips either way -- but not enough for the GOP nominee.

LOL @ Texas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia.

I just say that they will be much closer in 2012.

No, you clearly said "flip", not "swing".

That's the same thing. Which states do you think that Daniels and Romney could take that are normally democrat or lean democrat?

No, "flip" and "swing" are two different things.

So which states do you think Daniels and Romney could win that are normally democrat or lean democrat?

Daniels might win some Midwestern states such as Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan.

Romney would definitely win Massachusetts. (NOT!)