Rudd in trouble

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/23/2935224.htm

[Barnes]

I refuse to pay attention to any party that doesn't use the correct spelling of Labour.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/23/2935224.htm

Could Gillard see Labor to re-election?

[Hash]

What has made Rudd/ALP so unpopular federally? It seems like it was yesterday when the 2PP was like 57-43 in his favour.

[You kip if you want to...]

What has made Rudd/ALP so unpopular federally? It seems like it was yesterday when the 2PP was like 57-43 in his favour.

Are the ALP so unpopular though? Wikipedia says that they're still polling ahead at 52-48 on 2PP. Is it one of them "Well, we don't like any of you" style situations like we had here in the UK?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The key thing is that they were coasting until recently. Suddenly it's uncomfortably close. Rudd has never had much factional strength and his hold over the ALP has been down to his popularity within the wider electorate; something that is no longer true. So he (probably) goes.

Also, federal polls from some states (WA especially) have been beyond dire and the NSW ALP did worse than seems theoretically possible in a state by-election.

[You kip if you want to...]

Well Gillard best call an election before her honeymoon's over then. I'm sure her British Labour counterparts would agree.

[Хahar 🤔]

Well Gillard best call an election before her honeymoon's over then. I'm sure her British Labour counterparts would agree.

There will be an election this year anyhow.

[You kip if you want to...]

Well Gillard best call an election before her honeymoon's over then. I'm sure her British Labour counterparts would agree.

There will be an election this year anyhow.

I thought it was 2011.

[Хahar 🤔]

Well Gillard best call an election before her honeymoon's over then. I'm sure her British Labour counterparts would agree.

There will be an election this year anyhow.

I thought it was 2011.

Australian elections are invariably three years apart, unless an election is called earlier.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Kevin Rudd is the master of his own undoing. He was brought into the position by the factions and will be undone by the factions; and I wouldn't be surprised if Gillard, in the near future is undone by similar forces (she's a member of the dwindling Socialist Left for christsake!)

Could Gillard see Labor to re-election?

She's more popular than Rudd and it's agreed among most Liberals that they could only win against him and him alone. Gillard, in spite of leading a lacklustre government will revitalise it therefore renewing the Labor brand in the midst of impending doom; something those factional heavyweights like Arbib long for. Moreover, it puts an abrupt end to Abbott's gaining momentum.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Indeed. The drawback to being a tool is that you get used.

[Platypus]

Well, Rudd did the right thing in the end and didn't contest, so Gillard won uncontested. Her family is from Wales, she's a Victorian and she goes for the Bulldogs - my kind of Prime Minister. Labor will still struggle in Queensland and Western Australia, but this will strongly boost the party in South Australia, Victoria and NSW. Should be enough to maintain power, especially against the mad monk.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I know Barry quite well, so this is hilarious.

[Platypus]

How'd you manage that?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How'd you manage that?

Some relatives used to live in the general area, more or less. Funny place, actually.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why the hell did something like that happen ? Wasn't Rudd pretty successful until then ?

[You kip if you want to...]

Why the hell did something like that happen ? Wasn't Rudd pretty successful until then ?

I'm pretty stunned. Since when does a party suddenly through out the incumbent Prime Minister just because the polls slump a bit, or is it common place in Australia?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Why the hell did something like that happen ? Wasn't Rudd pretty successful until then ?

I'm pretty stunned. Since when does a party suddenly through out the incumbent Prime Minister just because the polls slump a bit, or is it common place in Australia?

British Conservative Party 1990

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You need to understand the structure of the ALP. Like all social democratic parties it's heavily factionalised. But, unusually, these factions are essentially fossilised and formalised; the fluidity of factions and factionalism that's such a feature of (for example) the internal affairs of the British Labour Party is not present in the ALP, except in a very limited way. This means that the inevitable powerbrokers have an extremely powerful role within the Party. Most of them are essentially unknown to the wider public; they're mostly Senators or officials in the larger Trade Unions. Their support is essential to remaining at the top of the ALP, and Rudd never had much institutional - that is factional - support. He was made Leader because he was popular with the electorate and the moment he ceased to be, he was always in danger.

[Хahar 🤔]

Is the new leader a tool in the same way?

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Is the new leader a tool in the same way?

She's like Rudd (she agreed with him on all of the issues that brought down his downfall, including the ETS, Super Mining Profits Tax, etc) but she appears more welcoming to the electorate; more real. And that will work in her favour. She'll revitalise the damaged Labor brand, particularly in marginals; which according to some polls, with her as leader the ALP will do much better in.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Another issue, I guess, is that Rudd was/is a control freak and hard to work with.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Another issue, I guess, is that Rudd was/is a control freak and hard to work with.

Very authoritarian. Apparently most of the cabinet decisions were, for the most part exclusively made by the 'Gang of Four'. No surprise Gillard, in her first address as Prime Minister endlessly reassured both the electorate and colleagues that she'll work with the interests of everyone, not just a collective few; exemplified by her decision to suspend pro-tax ads and begin a dialogue with the mining industry. No wonder a vast majority of mining companies on the ASX experienced immense gains on the market yesterday.