It's gonna be a bloodbath come November. DeMint may touch 70% if black turnout is down.
South Carolina isn't strongly Republican, it's solidly Republican, which is an important but critical distinction. There's a solid core of around 45% of the electorate right now that can be counted to vote Republican, a solid core of around 35% of the electorate that can usually be counted on to vote Democratic, and a middle ground of around 20% that is up for grabs depending on the race and the issue. Except for Superintendent of Education where that middle is skeptical of Republican efforts to privatize public education, it's a hard row to hoe for a Democratic candidate for a Statewide office, but it can be done. While DeMint should break 60% without breaking a sweat now, if he gets over 70%, it will only be because a lot of people simply don't cast any vote in the Senate race.
Nor do I expect DeMint will have any coattails. The principal Statewide race in November will be the one between Haley and Sheheen, and I think Sheheen has a chance. He's struck me for years now as someone who could possibly win, in no small part because the issues he's always campaigned on are the ones most likely to appeal to the middle, which is essential for a Democrat who hoes to have any chance of winning a Statewide race. At the least, he'll be able to make it competitive.
Besides, only a scandal or death will see Clyburn be knocked off in his district. Spratt is potentially vulnerable, but DeMint won't hurt him. If anything, with the Senate race irrelevant, DeMint will be less of a factor in November on downticket races than if he had faced Vic.
