Maine governor

[GJ12]

No one else intersted in this race?
I voted for LePage in the primary even though they argued that Mills was more electable. Because Mitchell won't win anyway, especially when Cutler is gaining and she is bleeding, something she can't afford to do in this climate. the Tea Party is strong here in ME, even changing the GOP platform to better reflect our values.

If Mills had for Congress I'd support him and he would have won.

[Lunar]

So you live in Maine?

[GJ12]

So you live in Maine?

Ya, most of the time.

[Thomas D]

I'm keeping an eye on it since Dem's have a chance to sweep the New England Governors races.

[SvenssonRS]

I see either LePage or Cutler winning at this stage. Baldacci's done a pretty lackluster job, at least according to his approval ratings, so I don't see another Democrat winning this year - although Mitchell won't be landslid by any sense of the word for the simple fact that it's Maine. It's a five-candidate field now, and it's bleeding Democratic support dry.

[GJ12]

Cutler won't win, he will just steal enough from Mitchell to allow LePage a victory. Maine has a thing for independents though, like Gov. King. Perot did extraordinarily well here as well.
Yes I'm a Tea partier, I have been active in local rallies.

[Lunar]

So you live in Maine?

Ya, most of the time.

Any connections to the UK?  [live there or anything?]

[GJ12]

So you live in Maine?

Ya, most of the time.

Any connections to the UK?  [live there or anything?]

Summer vacation, and soccer fan.

[GJ12]

Let's talk about the race and not my personal life though. Message me if you want to get to know me more.

[California8429]

would it be possible at all for Cutler to win? I know he could do a strong Independent run, as always happens in Maine

[GJ12]

would it be possible at all for Cutler to win? I know he could do a strong Independent run, as always happens in Maine

No but I would laugh if he got second.

[nhmagic]

Isn't another independent running?  Sean Moody? 

And I am very interested in this race as I work and frequently shop in Maine.

BTW, York county cops are everywhere.

[SvenssonRS]

Isn't another independent running?  Sean Moody?

Three Independents, actually. Cutler, Moody, and Some Random Guy.

[Dan the Roman]

Not sure why people are writing Mitchell off. Go knows she's boring and generic, but there is only one poll with LePage leading, and that is a post-primary Rasmussen. Whatever one's views of his reliability in general, I think we have learned to toss any poll he takes 24 hours after a primary, given the type of nonsense that has been in his KY and NC polls.

The Democratic base in Maine is far more cohesive than the Republican one, and it is almost unheard of for an independent to draw off enough support from the Democrat to drop them into third. It is usually disaffected moderate republicans who go to them, as was seen in 2006 when Barbara Merrill won 21%. LePage is going struggle mightily to pass 40%, and Mitchell will have to crash hard to get much below that, so I would not put this anywhere beyond toss-up.  Six years of following Maine politics makes me put it tilt-Democrat or Independent. Intuition causes me to think LePage has an advantage.

That said, the narrative in the local media is a pox on both houses-esque - crazy tea-partier v. tired old hack both fail to inspire voters. Not sure which is worse, but we will see how the Democrats' anti-tea party strategy plays here, because like in Nevada, they seem to have gotten the campaign they wanted(though they probably would have preferred Rowe.) Cutler is getting great press, and we saw how Merrill surged from 10% to 21% in  two weeks in 2006 on the back of it.

Oh and its worth noting that Baldacci did win reelection by 11% when his approval ratings were sitting around 35% in 2006 with Snowe at the top of the ticket, so views of him are not going to sink Mitchell. The combined Democratic-Greene-Moderate Republican vote, aka the non-LePage block, is going to be 55% min. Its how its distributed that will matter.

That said, one thing to think about Maine though. Maine is a state where the most liberal voters - aka 18-30 year olds who attended four year Universities, a demographic that tends to go about 75-25 Democratic at the state level, almost invariably leave by the time they are 30. I brought this up with a friend in the state when he was discussing his confidence in regards to the Gay Marriage vote being reversed, since the electorate is consistently being purged of the most socially liberal group. For that reason, there is a reasonable argument that  Maine outside of Cumberland and York counties is in fact becoming more Conservative over time, and I think the LePage primary victory confirmed that.

[nhmagic]

Well, I work in York county and dont see anything resembling a campaign by Mitchell.  LePage is everywhere and people seem to like him. 

In general, both NH and Maine seem to be tilting right this year, especially NH.  There is a lot of worry about the oil spill and anger at Obama's response to it.  The youth left seems to be sitting this election out without a real cause to rally around.  Also, Maine's Dirigio health plan is a catastrophe and LePage is benefitting from it.  And Dan, you nailed it about the youth in Maine. 

[California8429]

Well, I work in York county and dont see anything resembling a campaign by Mitchell.  LePage is everywhere and people seem to like him. 

In general, both NH and Maine seem to be tilting right this year, especially NH.  There is a lot of worry about the oil spill and anger at Obama's response to it.  The youth left seems to be sitting this election out without a real cause to rally around.  Also, Maine's Dirigio health plan is a catastrophe and LePage is benefitting from it.  And Dan, you nailed it about the youth in Maine. 

same here, the energized youth is now on the right. the left are mostly sitting it out or just not nearly as active