IA: Culver (D) might be saved by the far-right

[CatoMinor]

Read this in the newspaper this morning.

Former Governor Branstad's Primary opponent, Vander Plaats, may run as an Independent. Being that he received 41% in the GOP primary a few weeks ago, it would certainly help Culver's reelection chances. Vander Plaats basically ran on repealing gay marriage.

link

[Lunar]

Branstad isn't very popular among the social conservatives of the state, as he, among other things, appointed [I think] two of the judges that supported gay marriage.

But there's no path of victory for Vander Plaats here, I'm not sure what he's doing.

[Torie]

I suspect Huck will talk him out of it, if tempted. Handing the seat to Culver won't play well for Huck in 2012 if he runs, if his clone pisses in the pot that way.

[Lunar]

I suspect Huck will talk him out of it, if tempted. Handing the seat to Culver won't play well for Huck in 2012 if he runs, if his clone pisses in the pot that way.

I don't see Huckabee intervening here in a a restrictive fashion.  Brandstad  will either endorse Palin, Romney, or remain undecided between the two.  If Huckabee can endear himself further to the 25% of the electorate that feels strongly about Vander Plaats, it's of a strategic advantage for him to do so.

If Culver wins in 2010, that only STRENGTHENS Huckabee's position, as now his opponents don't have a sitting governor behind them, and Huckabee gets to maintain a lot more of his activist base

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Culver probably couldn't win unless BVP got 15-20% of the vote. R2k is the only pollster that's shown him even within single-digits.

[Torie]

I suspect Huck will talk him out of it, if tempted. Handing the seat to Culver won't play well for Huck in 2012 if he runs, if his clone pisses in the pot that way.

I don't see Huckabee intervening here in a a restrictive fashion.  Brandstad  will either endorse Palin, Romney, or remain undecided between the two.  If Huckabee can endear himself further to the 25% of the electorate that feels strongly about Vander Plaats, it's of a strategic advantage for him to do so.

If Culver wins in 2010, that only STRENGTHENS Huckabee's position, as now his opponents don't have a sitting governor behind them, and Huckabee gets to maintain a lot more of his activist base

That probably is more plausible than my scenario, but that suggests Iowan Pubbies are dumb, if Huck failed to talk the Huck clone out of doing something that put in place a Dem governor, quite disliked by Pubbies, to wit: Culver

[Хahar 🤔]

Would Vander Plaats have a chance at winning the hyper-Calvinist counties near the Missouri?

[Verily]

I suspect Huck will talk him out of it, if tempted. Handing the seat to Culver won't play well for Huck in 2012 if he runs, if his clone pisses in the pot that way.

Vander Plaats isn't a Huckabee clone, for one. Two, it's probably good for Huckabee for the social conservative rage to continue to be ginned up by Vander Plaats rather than letting it go away.

Yes, I would think Vander Plaats would win the Dutch Reform areas (possibly by big margins) and get negligible percentages of the vote elsewhere.

[sg0508]

It's embarrassing what the party has become.  A guy runs basically on a "hate" message.  Unbelievable.