German Presidential Election Poll

[Tender Branson]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_presidential_election,_2010

The candidates are:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Wulff



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joachim_Gauck



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luc_Jochimsen



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Rennicke

[Barnes]

Gauck.

I thought I'd support The Left, but then I saw what they had to say about East Germany, so yeah...

[Хahar 🤔]

Would the PDS prefer Wulff to Gauck? Obviously they would never vote for Wulff, since they would lose a lot of votes if they did, but I can't iimagine they like Gauck.

[Barnes]

Question,

How is the campaign conducted, exactly? Do the candidates try and lobby the actual electors, or do they campaign a la American style? Or do they even campaign at all? Thanks

[Tender Branson]

Question,

How is the campaign conducted, exactly? Do the candidates try and lobby the actual electors, or do they campaign a la American style? Or do they even campaign at all? Thanks

They do campaign, but not in the American way. They try to secure the endorsements of popular electors like former governors who still have influence on the other electors, by travelling to the state capitals of the 16 states where they give speeches and meet with all the electors there.

For example, Gauck recently met with MPs from the Left and FDP to convince them to vote for him, especially if a second or third ballot is needed.

The media also plays a large role in the campaigning, with the majority in favor of Gauck I guess and bashing the Merkel government. Also, Gauck seems to have the edge on the Internet (Facebook members & support-groups, etc.)

[Barnes]

Question,

How is the campaign conducted, exactly? Do the candidates try and lobby the actual electors, or do they campaign a la American style? Or do they even campaign at all? Thanks

They do campaign, but not in the American way. They try to secure the endorsements of popular electors like former governors who still have influence on the other electors, by travelling to the state capitals of the 16 states where they give speeches and meet with all the electors there.

For example, Gauck recently met with MPs from the Left and FDP to convince them to vote for him, especially if a second or third ballot is needed.

The media also plays a large role in the campaigning, with the majority in favor of Gauck I guess and bashing the Merkel government. Also, Gauck seems to have the edge on the Internet (Facebook members & support-groups, etc.)

Ah, ok. Thanks.

[Tender Branson]

Question,

How is the campaign conducted, exactly? Do the candidates try and lobby the actual electors, or do they campaign a la American style? Or do they even campaign at all? Thanks

They do campaign, but not in the American way. They try to secure the endorsements of popular electors like former governors who still have influence on the other electors, by travelling to the state capitals of the 16 states where they give speeches and meet with all the electors there.

For example, Gauck recently met with MPs from the Left and FDP to convince them to vote for him, especially if a second or third ballot is needed.

The media also plays a large role in the campaigning, with the majority in favor of Gauck I guess and bashing the Merkel government. Also, Gauck seems to have the edge on the Internet (Facebook members & support-groups, etc.)

Ah, ok. Thanks.

Some points I have just found over the newspapers is that the number of the CDU/CSU/FDP electors around the country who flirted with backing Gauck is now declining, because Wulff met with them, so campaigning in the state capitals makes some sense.

Also, Dietmar Bartsch of the Left Party said that they will back their candidate in the first round, but that the voting in round 2 "could be open". But no one knows how many of them will vote for Wulff to avoid a "McCarthy-ish" President Gauck, or how many will vote for Gauck to send a signal to the troubled Merkel government.

I think Wulff will be narrowly elected in the first round with about 5 votes more than what is necessary.

[Tender Branson]

Also, the new unemployment numbers for June will be released at 10am, two hours before the first ballot.

They are likely to show a big drop of unemployment from 3.242 Mio. in May to about 3.150 Mio. in June. That would be a decrease of about 260.000 compared with June 2009, or minus 8%.

The unemployment rate will likely drop to about 7.4-7.5% from 7.7% in May. This report may help Wulff I think.

[Ameriplan]

Hope this poll doesn't reflect what really happens IRL!

[Tender Branson]

Hope this poll doesn't reflect what really happens IRL!

No, Rennicke won`t get 33%, more like 0.3% ...

[Ameriplan]

Hope this poll doesn't reflect what really happens IRL!

No, Rennicke won`t get 33%, more like 0.3% ...

Is a member of Hitler's actual party or just in spirit?

[Tender Branson]

Also, the new unemployment numbers for June will be released at 10am, two hours before the first ballot.

They are likely to show a big drop of unemployment from 3.242 Mio. in May to about 3.150 Mio. in June. That would be a decrease of about 260.000 compared with June 2009, or minus 8%.

The unemployment rate will likely drop to about 7.4-7.5% from 7.7% in May. This report may help Wulff I think.

The official numbers are in:

3.153.000 unemployed (-88.000 compared with May, -257.000 (-7.5%) compared with June 2009)

Unemployment Rates:

National Definition: 7.5% (-0.2) not seasonally adjusted, 7.7% (nc) seasonally adjusted
ILO Definition (May): 6.8% (-0.3) not seasonally adjusted, 7.0% (-0.1) seasonally adjusted

(The comparable rate with the US is the ILO seasonally adjusted one ...)

[Middle-aged Europe]

I'm not sure that Rennicke is the DVU's presidential candidate as well. First of all, they don't have any electors of their own anymore. In addition, their alliance with the NPD was broken off some time ago.

(Well, the new DVU chairman wanted to merge his party with the NPD. In response to that he was recently expelled from his own party. He contested the legality of this move in court and the court ruled in his favour. So far, the DVU refuses to recognize the court order though. At this point, it is unclear if the DVU has a chairman and who this chairman would be. So the party is not really in a state where it could make political decisions or presidential endorsements anyway.)

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, here's the breakdown:

Gauck is supported by SPD, Greens, Free Voters, SSW, the Saxon FDP, and the Bremen FDP (openly anyway). Wulff is supported by CDU, CSU, and the remaining FDP. Representatives of the FDP from Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt had also announced some sympathies for Gauck though.

One possible best case scenario for Gauck ist that all FDP electors (prehaps including the respective Bundestag members) from those four states vote for him.

This would lead to the following tally:
Wulff 629 (six more than necessary)
Gauck 488
Jochimsen 124
Rennicke 3

Of course, we don't know if and how many more CDU and FDP electors could switch sides at least during the first ballot.

[Franzl]

Gauck, but it ain't gonna happen

[Јas]

First Round
600 Wulff
499 Gauck
126 Jochimsen
    3 Rennicke

  13 abstentions

623 required for an absolute majority

- AFP

[Middle-aged Europe]

Second ballot

Wulff 615 (+15)
Gauck 490 (-9)
Jochimsen 123 (-3)
Rennicke 3
Abstentions 7 (-6)

No majority for Wulff, on to the third round...

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Gauck.

[Tender Branson]

After 1.5 hours, the left opposition (SPD+Greens+Left) is still negotiating what to do in round 3.

[minionofmidas]

First Round
600 Wulff
499 Gauck
126 Jochimsen
    3 Rennicke

  13 abstentions

and one vote not valid; and two electors absent (wtf?)

Second ballot

Wulff 615 (+15)
Gauck 490 (-9)
Jochimsen 123 (-3)
Rennicke 3
Abstentions 7 (-6)

No majority for Wulff, on to the third round...

and still plus one invalid and two not present.

After 1.5 hours, the left opposition (SPD+Greens+Left) is still negotiating what to do in round 3.

Jochimsen has withdrawn. Gysi said that "most of us" would probably be abstaining rather than vote for "one of the two conservative candidates" - the implication being that the remainder will be voting for Gauck. (Presumably Jochimsen herself is part of that latter bloc?)

[Barnes]

What time does the 3rd Round start?

[minionofmidas]

What time does the 3rd Round start?

They're counting the votes atm.

[Barnes]

What time does the 3rd Round start?

They're counting the votes atm.

Oh, I thought they hadn't voted yet.

[minionofmidas]

Any minute now. Everyone's taken their seats again.

[minionofmidas]

All this wait for this maderchod result?

Wulff 625
Gauck 494