Brazil Elections 2010

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I guess there's no possibility now, barring maybe her being caught on eating babies alive, that we won't soon write "President Dilma".

[RodPresident]

IBOPE, Alagoas, Sept. 11-14
Fernando Collor (PTB): 29%
Ronaldo Lessa (PDT): 28%
Teotônio Vilela Filho (PSDB-inc): 27%
Error margin: 3%
Gape (linked to Collor), Alagoas, Sept. 13
Governor
Fernando Collor (PTB): 30%
Ronaldo Lessa (PDT): 26%
Teotônio Vilela Filho (PSDB-inc): 22%
Mário Agra (PSOL): 1%
SenateHeloísa Helena (PSOL): 25%
Renan Calheiros (PMDB pro-Lessa-inc): 24%
Benedito de Lira (PP pro-Lula and pro-Vilela): 19%
Eduardo Bonfim (PC do B-Renan's running-mate): 1%
José Costa (PPS-Lira's running-mate): 1%
Error margin: 3%

Amazonas, Ibope/Rede Amazônica
Governor
Omar Aziz (PMN-inc): 53%
Alfredo Nascimento (PR): 32%
Hissa Abrahão (PPS): 2%
Herbert Amazonas (PSTU) and Luis Navarro (PCB): 1%
Senate
Eduardo Braga (PMDB-supporting Aziz): 80%
Vanessa Graziotin (PC do B-supporting Aziz): 39%
Arthur Virgílio (PSDB-inc-supporting Abrahão): 34%
Jefferson Praia (PDT-inc-supporting Nascimento): 9%
Marilene Corrêa (PT-supporting Nascimento): 5%
Null/Undecided: 2%/12%
Error margin: 3%

DF, Ibope/Globo, Sept. 10-12
Governor
Agnelo Queiroz (PT): 43%
Joaquim Roriz (PSC): 30%
Toninho (PSOL): 3%
SenateCristovam Buarque (PDT-inc): 50%
Rodrigo Rollemberg (PSB): 39%
Maria Abadia (PSDB): 24%
Alberto Fraga (DEM): 13%
Robson (PSTU), Cadu (PV) and Tadashi (PTN): 1%
Error margin: 2%

[Hash]

Alagoas will be much fun, predictably. It's definitely the one reason to be interested in this election.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Sexgod Collor must prevail.

[RodPresident]

News from Brazil
Chief-of-Staff, Erenice Guerra, that replaced Dilma, resigned today. She and members of her family were involved in "lobby affair" about a cargo airliner, MTA, that had contracts with Correios (postal service). Coup de grâce was a new accusation that links Guerra with a corporation interested in a loan by BNDES (National Bank for Social and Economic Development). This corporation would have to give money to Dilma and Hélio Costa campaign in exchange for loan. This scandal was denounced by Folha de São Paulo, that is a very biased anti-Lula newspaper (our largest newspaper). Denouncer is a not-trusted person, linked to receiving of stolen goods.
In Amazonas, Lula gave his official endorsement to Alfredo Nascimento (PR).
New polls:
Datafolha, Folha de São Paulo/Globo, Sept. 13-15
Dilma: 51%
Serra: 27%
Marina: 11%
Error margin: 2%
Tocantins,Ibope/TV Anhanguera (Globo), Sept. 11-14
Governor
Carlos Eduardo Gaguim (PMDB-inc): 47%
Siqueira Campos (PSDB): 43%
Senate
João Ribeiro (PR-inc): 47%
Marcelo Miranda (PMDB): 41%
Paulo Mourão (PT) and Vicentinho Alves (PR): 31%
Error margin: 3%

[Hash]

Vox Populi tracker: Sept. 18 change on last day
Dilma 51%
Serra 24% (+1)
Marina 9%
null 5%
undecided 11%

[Insula Dei]

Tell me: who am I supposed to support?

[Hash]

Tell me: who am I supposed to support?

Dilma. No questions asked (unless you're an opponent of Lula from the left, in which case you have a whole slew of fringe Trots to chose from, including Plinio, but you don't seem like one of those types, especially not now)

[Insula Dei]

Okay then.

(I usually only go extremist when the whiff of defeat gets too depressing to deal with)

[RodPresident]

*In Amapá, Governor Pedro Paulo Dias (PP, running for reelection) and former Governor Waldez Góes (PDT, running for Senate) left jail. Dias was planning to get US$10 milion during campaign, while Goes received R$ 500000 as bribe for prision food contracts.
*Lula attacked Veja magazine because his very biased electoral coverage and attacks against Dilma. In last issue, magazine said that bribes were received in a room close to Rousseff's office.
*Actor Benício del Toro met Dilma Rousseff and endorsed her. He also visited MST (landless peasants) camp.
*Poll in Maranhão (IBOPE, hired by Sarney's newspaper):
Roseana (PMDB): 46%
Jackson Lago (PDT, endorsed by PSDB): 21%
Flávio Dino (PC do B, endorsed by PT dissidents and José Reinaldo): 21%
Marcos Silva (PSTU): 1%
Undecided/Null: 9%/2%
Error margin: 3%
Run-off:
Roseana 49% x 34% Dino
Roseana 53% x 30% Jackson
Dino 39% x 29% Jackson
Senate
Edison Lobão (PMDB-inc): 42%
João Alberto (PMDB): 33%
José Reinaldo (PSB): 16%
Edison Vidigal (PSDB): 11%
Roberto Rocha (PSDB): 10%
Others (far-left and PC do B): 5%
*Senate BA (by Datafolha): César Borges (PR-inc) 29%, Lídice (PSB) 28%, Pinheiro (PT) 27%, José Ronaldo (DEM) 11%, Edvaldo Brito (PTB) 9% and Aleluia (DEM) 7%.
*This tuesday, we'll have a debate with left-wing candidates, 9 p.m. in local time. Probably, only Pimenta (PCO), Pinheiro (PCB) and Zé Maria (PSTU) will be present, although Plínio (PSOL), Marina (PV) and Dilma (PT) were invited.

[Niemeyerite]

Tell me: who am I supposed to support?

u
There are 3 socialists or dosicl-democrat candidates. If you really like Lula and you vote for his candidate (a majority of brazilians will do it), you will support dilma. If you like lula, but are concerned about the amazonas, vote marina silva. if you like lula but won't vote for the person he wants you to vote (that's my case), or simply you don't like him but you're a socialist, vote plinio.

I would vote plinio because IMO he is more intelligent than dilma and marina. but I like dilma an marina, too.

[Hash]

Vox Populi tracker: Sept. 19 change on last day
Dilma 53% (+2)
Serra 24%
Marina 9%
undecided/blank 14% (-2)

[RodPresident]

News from Brazil:
*"Clean slate" voting in Supreme Court is deadlocked in 5-5 draw. A seat is vacant, because retiring of minister Eros Grau. President Lula decided to nominate a new member only after elections.
*Joaquim Roriz (PSC-DF) retired his candidacy for governorship. Now, he may be replaced by his wife, Weslian Roriz (PSC-DF).
*Senator Pedro Simon (PMDB-RS) gave his endorsement to Marina Silva (PV-AC) in presidential election. Sources from PV say that former President Itamar Franco (PPS-MG) can endorse her too.

[RodPresident]

*Roriz is paranoid, saying that "Constitution was ripped" and "this thing is beginning of a conspiracy to change our regime from democracy to socialism".
*Beto Richa is barring polls in Paraná, because they appoint a leadership from Osmar Dias.

[RodPresident]

Senator Romeu Tuma (PTB-SP) dies at 78. He was running for reelection and he was interned in Syrian-Lebanese Hospital, in São Paulo, since September 2nd. He was suffering a respiratory infection.
Sorry for this fake information: http://portalimprensa.uol.com.br/portal/ultimas_noticias/2010/09/24/imprensa38318.shtml
This is to see how our press is chaotic.

[RodPresident]

Polls:
GO, IBOPE/TV Anhanguera (Globo), Sept. 21-23
Governor
Marconi Perillo (PSDB): 43%
Iris Rezende (PMDB): 33%
Vanderlan Cardoso (PR-gov): 12%
Senate
Demóstenes Torres (DEM-inc): 52%
Lúcia Vânia (PSDB-inc): 39%
Pedro Wilson (PT): 18%
Adib Elias (PMDB): 11%
Renner (PP-resigned): 7%
Paulo Roberto (PP): 6%
Others (far-left): 5%
Error margin: 3%
MT, IBOPE/TV Centro América (Globo), Sept. 21-23
Governor
Silval Barbosa (PMDB-inc): 46%
Mauro Mendes (PSB): 24%
Wilson Santos (PSDB): 16%
Senate
Blairo Maggi (PR): 67%
Carlos Abicalil (PT): 36%
Antero Paes da Barros (PSDB): 24%
Pedro Taques (PDT): 21%
Error margin: 3%
MS, IBOPE/TV Morena (Globo), Sept. 21-23
GovernorAndré Puccinelli (PMDB-inc right-wing): 51%
Zeca do PT (PT): 41%
Nei Braga (PSOL): 1%
Senate
Delcídio do Amaral (PT-inc): 63%
Dagoberto Nogueira (PDT): 37%
Waldemir Moka (PMDB right-wing): 32%
Murilo Zauith (DEM): 29%
Error margin: 3%
DF, IBOPE/Globo, Sept. 21-23
Governor
Agnelo Queiroz (PT): 42%
Joaquim/Weslian Roriz (PSC): 33%
Toninho do PSOL (PSOL): 7%
Eduardo Brandão (PV): 2%
Rodrigo Dantas (PSTU): 1%
Senate
Cristovam Buarque (PDT-inc): 50%
Rodrigo Rollemberg (PSB): 41%
Maria Abadia (PSDB): 24%
Alberto Fraga (DEM): 20%
Others: 7%
Error margin: 3%
Datafolha, Sept. 21-22
Governor
Agnelo Queiroz (PT): 41%
Weslian/Joaquim Roriz (PSC): 20%
Toninho do PSOL: 5%
Eduardo (PV) and Dantas (PSTU): 1%
Senate
Cristovam Buarque (PDT-inc): 45%
Rollemberg (PSB): 36%
Maria Abadia (PSDB): 22%
Alberto Fraga (DEM): 18%
Others: 3%
Error margin: 3%

[RodPresident]

BA, IBOPE/TV Bahia, Sept. 21-23Governor
Jaques Wagner (PT-inc): 52%
Paulo Souto (DEM): 15%
Geddel (PMDB): 15%
Luiz Bassuma (PV): 2%
Professor Carlos (PSTU): 1%
Senate
Walter Pinheiro (PT): 35%
Lídice da Mata (PSB): 32%
César Borges (PR-inc): 29%
José Ronaldo (DEM): 12%
Edvaldo Brito (PTB) and José Carlos Aleluia (DEM): 9%
Others: 8%
Error margin: 3%

BA, Datafolha, Sept. 21-22
Governor
Jaques Wagner (PT-inc): 48%
Paulo Souto (DEM): 21%
Geddel (PMDB): 12%
Bassuma (PV): 2%
Marcos Mendes (PSOL): 1%
Senate
César Borges (PR-inc): 29%
Lídice (PSB): 28%
Walter Pinheiro (PT): 25%
José Ronaldo and Aleluia (DEM): 12%
Edvaldo Brito (PTB): 9%
Others: 6%
Error margin: 3%

PE, IBOPE/Globo, Sept. 21-23
Governor
Eduardo Campos (PSB-inc): 73%
Jarbas Vasconcellos (PMDB right-wing): 16%
Edilson Silva (PSOL): 1%
Senate
Humberto Costa (PT): 59%
Armando Monteiro (PTB pro-Lula): 43%
Marco Maciel (DEM): 33%
Raul Jungmann (PPS): 10%
Others: 4%
Error margin: 2%

PE, Datafolha, Sept. 21-22
Governor
Eduardo Campos (PSB-inc): 72%
Jarbas Vasconcellos (PMDB right-wing): 15%
Edilson Silva (PSOL): 1%
Senate
Humberto Costa (PT): 52%
Armando Monteiro (PTB pro-Lula): 42%
Marco Maciel (DEM-inc): 31%
Raul Jungmann (PPS): 9%
Others: 6%
Error margin: 3%

PI,IBOPE, Sept. 21-23
Governor
Wilson Martins (PSB-inc): 39%
João Vicente Claudino (PTB pro-Lula): 27%
Sílvio Mendes (PSDB): 25%
Teresa Brito (PV): 1%
Error margin: 3%

MG, Datafolha, Sept. 21-22
Governor
Antônio Anastasia (PSDB-inc): 42%
Hélio Costa (PMDB): 37%
Others: 4%
Senate
Aécio Neves (PSDB): 67%
Itamar Franco (PPS): 43%
Fernando Pimentel (PT): 32%
Others: 13%
Error margin: 3%

MG, IBOPE, Sept. 21-23
Governor
Antônio Anastasia (PSDB-inc): 42%
Hélio Costa (PMDB): 34%
Others: 3%
Error margin: 2%
RJ, Datafolha, Sept. 21-22
Governor
Sérgio Cabral (PMDB-inc): 60%
Fernando Gabeira (PV right-wing): 17%
Fernando Peregrino (PR pro-Garotinho): 5%
Jefferson Moura (PSOL) and Cyro Garcia (PSTU): 2%
Eduardo Serra (PCB): 1%
Senate
Marcelo Crivella (PRB-inc): 42%
Lindberg Farias (PT): 40%
César Maia (DEM): 26%
Jorge Picciani (PMDB): 20%
Waguinho (PT do B pro-Garotinho): 9%
Marcelo Cerqueira (PPS): 6%
Milton Temer (PSOL): 5%
Others: 4%
Error margin: 3%

RJ, IBOPE, Globo, Sept. 21-23
Governor
Sérgio Cabral (PMDB-inc): 59%
Fernando Gabeira (PV): 16%
Fernando Peregrino (PR): 3%
Others: 3%
Senate
Lindberg Farias (PT): 37%
Marcelo Crivella (PRB-inc): 34%
César Maia (DEM) and Jorge Picciani (PMDB): 23%
Waguinho (PT do B): 7%
Marcelo Cerqueira (PPS): 3%
Milton Temer (PSOL): 2%
Carlos Dias: 1%
Error margin: 2%

SC, IBOPE/RBS (Globo),Sept. 21-23
Governor
Raimundo Colombo (DEM-gov): 43%
Ângela Amin (PP): 27%
Ideli Salvatti (PT): 16%
Others: 1%
Error margin: 3%

RS, Datafolha, Sept. 21-22
Governor
Tarso Genro (PT): 46%
José Fogaça (PMDB): 23%
Yeda Crusius (PSDB-inc): 15%
Pedro Ruas (PSOL): 1%
Senate
Ana Amélia Lemos (PP): 49%
Paulo Paim (PT-inc): 45%
Germano Rigotto (PMDB): 38%
Abigail Pereira (PC do B): 10%
Others: 6%*
*Excluding Luiz Carlos Lucas (PSOL) that had 1%, but resigned to help re-election of senator Paulo Paim, that is a champion for pensioners' rights.
Error margin: 3%

SP, Datafolha, Sept. 21-22
Governor
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB-gov): 51%
Aloísio Mercadante (PT): 23%
Celso Russomano (PP): 9%
Paulo Skaf (PSB): 4%
Fábio Feldmann (PV): 1%
Senate
Marta Suplicy (PT): 36%
Netinho de Paula (PC do B): 36%
Aloysio Nunes Ferreira (PSDB): 23%
Romeu Tuma (PTB-inc): 21%
Ciro Moura (PTC): 8%
Moacyr Franco (PSL): 7%

Vox Populi, Band/iG, Sept. 18-21Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB): 40%
Aloísio Mercadante (PT): 28%
Celso Russomano (PP): 7%
Paulo Skaf (PSB): 3%
Fábio Feldmann (PV): 2%
Ricardo Young (PV): 5%

[RodPresident]

PRESIDENTIAL POLLS
Datafolha, Sept. 21-22
Dilma: 49%
José Serra: 28%
Marina Silva: 13%
Error margin: 2%

IBOPE, Globo/Estado de São Paulo, Sept. 21-23
Dilma: 50%
José Serra: 28%
Marina Silva: 12%
Others: 1%
Error margin: 2%

Vox Populi, Band/iG, Tracking, Sept. 24
Dilma: 50%
José Serra: 24%
Marina: 10%
Error margin: 2,2%

[Niemeyerite]

Goodbye Maia ^^
Pimentel is closing the gap. but the election is next week, I think franco will win by 5 points. If the election were held by 15-20 of octobre, Pimentel probably could make an upset...

And the only question left on the presidential election... will there be a 2nd turn or not?? I think Dilma will be able to win a majority in the 1st turn.

[Hash]

Vox Populi tracker: Sept. 27 change on last day
Dilma 49% (nc)
Serra 24% (nc)
Marina 13% (+1)
null 3%
undecided 10% (-1)

Alckmin was the late surger of 2006, it seems like Marina might be the late surger of 2010.

[Niemeyerite]

Well, if Marina finally goes to 2nd round, I would vote for her. It'd be awesome to have a runoff with 2 women. But I still think Dilma will be elected in the first round, and that serra doesn't stand a chance. GO SILVA! GO PLINIO!

[RodPresident]

Now, I'm going to my city to vote. It was very funny to talk about elections in my country, my beloved Brazil. Because I love Brazil and Bahia, I'll vote:
State Deputy: Angelo Almeida 13000
Federal Deputy: Sérgio Barradas Carneiro 1300
Senator 1: Lídice da Mata 400
Senator 2: Walter Pinheiro 130
Governor: Jaques Wagner 13
President: Dilma Roussef 13

[Hash]

Sunday's the big day. Dilma will win in the first round, Anastasia seems well on his way to doing likewise in MG, Cabral will crush Gabeira like a fly, Alckmin will win easily while Yeda Crusius will fail worse than Shawn Graham did in New Brunswick. All's good, basically.

What is interesting is that Ibope has noted a steep decline in evangelical votes for Dilma recently, which might be related to comments she made that were interpreted as being pro-choice (zomgz). This might play a role in her recent drop to Marina's benefit, given that Marina is an evangelical.

also, I found this cool map on a blog which shows Ibope's poll results by mesoregion, the sample sizes are good because it's a compilation of all of Ibope's individual state polls


SW Para is the only area which kind of surprises me, but it's a sparsely populated area (so likely a crappy sample size), with the few people there in big agrobusiness or being Medici-era settlers. It voted heavily for Alckmin in 2006.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

So, the only question for presidential is whether it's going to be one or two rounds. Anyway, Jose is dead.

[Niemeyerite]

PV would likely support serra on a supposed 2nd round. But silva will stay neutral.

Oh, and Plinio has reached 1% for the first time ever in a poll! (IBOPE).