Exit poll leaks

[A18]

SRGFM has posted the numbers for a few swing states:

Florida
Kerry 99%, Bush 0.5%

Ohio
Kerry 72%, Bush 0.01%

[The Vorlon]

On the HUGE assumption that the 1% Kerry leads in Florida and Ohio (Drudge now reports they are indeed 1% leads) based upon a 59 / 41 Gender split Bush would be marginally ahead in both.

Remember also that Exit polls have a whole whack of error associated with them as well.

We know no more or less than we knew 6 hours ago IMHO

[The Duke]

Remember, the GOP usually begins voting en masse at 4pm, which is why early exit polls often show Democrats doing better than they really are (remember Drudge's leak that Erskine Bowles was crushing Liddy Dole?).

The GOP doesn't even start voting in large number in Florida, Pennsyvania, and New Hampshire for another 9 minutes.

[© tweed]

GOP sources are telling NRO people Drudge's Prez numbers are complete bunk.

They say Bush leads, albeit narrowly, in FL and OH. Doing very well in IA.

You piss me off

[AuH2O]

Not to mention the Western states!!

Colorado? Please. It's what, barely after lunchtime there

[afleitch]

Why on earth is everyone salivating at what Drudge posts! In the East Coast people are leaving their work and hitting the polls. That will affect everything.

[The Duke]

Not to mention the Western states!!

Colorado? Please. It's what, barely after lunchtime there

And the early voters, who according to national (not state) surveys favor Bush and in IA 50% of the GOP registered voters voted early. Absentee ballots, especially military, which favor Bush, also not counted by exit polls.

The exits predicted Gore by 100,000 votes in Florida, and that wasn't an early return it was the real deal.  I won't believe a 60-40 race in PA until the Secretary of State certifies it.

[MODU]

Similar question.  Seems to me that everyone has taken an "early exit poll viagra" or something already.  

Come on folks, let's put our "fingers" on ice for the time being and wait till the polls close.  At that point, we can somewhat rationally start claiming victories or defeats in various states.

[Mr. Morden]

Bush is now plummeting on Tradesports.  It now has Kerry favored to win the election.  Kerry slightly favored in OH, but Bush still slightly favored in FL.

[The Duke]

From Durdge, even he cautions against taking these seriously.

[But early 2000 exit polls showed Gore +3 in Florida; showed Gore-Bush even in CO [Bush won by 9], exits showed Gore +4 in AZ [Bush won by 6]

[Hegemon]

Slate has a different set of numbers, purportedly compiled from both early and mid-day exit polling:

Florida
Kerry 50
Bush 49

Ohio
Kerry 50
Bush 49

Continue Article

Pennsylvania
Kerry 54
Bush 45

Wisconsin
Kerry 51
Bush 46

Michigan
Kerry 51
Bush 47

Minnesota
Kerry 58
Bush 40

Nevada
Kerry 48
Bush 50

New Mexico
Kerry 50
Bush 48

North Carolina
Kerry 49
Bush 51

Colorado
Kerry 46
Bush 53

[Sam Spade]

What I'm seeing is that those first numbers reported (the VNS ones)were obviously false.  They may have come from the DNC, as far as I know.

We should be getting more in soon, but as always reliability on these things is terrible and I would hope that the gender gap rumor is not true on these exit polls.  It would put them into question.

[Pollwatch99]

Glad I was out with my family and just returned.  This is much ado about nothing at this point.

[A18]

Minnesota is absolutely hilarious

[TheOldLine]

What I'm seeing is that those first numbers reported (the VNS ones)were obviously false.  They may have come from the DNC, as far as I know.

We should be getting more in soon, but as always reliability on these things is terrible and I would hope that the gender gap rumor is not true on these exit polls.  It would put them into question.

National Review reports that the "VNS" numbers may have originated in the Kerry campaign.   As many people have noted "VNS" doesn't even exist anymore.

Anyhow, anyone who is reading this thread needs to check out Mystery Pollster on the Exit Polls, where he notes that the sample error on early exit polls is in the neighborhood of +/-7%.
 http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/

TheOldLine

[AuH2O]

In 2000 and 2002 many were off by 5-10% initially, some even more.

[Sam Spade]

Bush is sitting a little below 40% at Tradesports, and I'm almost tempted to get an account and bet a little.

Of course, it'd probably be impossible to get to their site right now.  They're being swamped, I'm sure.

[freedomburns]

Yummy turnout goodness
by kos
Tue Nov 2nd, 2004 at 20:10:45 GMT

We're trying to fix capacity issues with both Daily Kos and MyDD, so please bear with us. Here's the latest MyDD catch, from CNN:
Ohio - African American precincts are performing at 106% what we expected, based on historical numbers. Hispanic precincts are at 144% what we expected. Precincts that went for Gore are turning out 8% higher then those that went Bush in 2000. Democratic base precincts are performing 15% higher than GOP base precincts.
Florida - Dem base precincts are performing 14% better than Bush base precincts. In precincts that went for Gore, they are doing 6% better than those that went for Bush. African American precincts at 109%, Hispanic precincts at 106%.

Pennsylvania - African American precincts at 102% of expectations, Hispanics at 136% of expectations. The Gore precincts are doing 4 percent better than bush precincts.
 
Michigan - Democratic base precincts are 8% better than GOP base states. Gore precincts are 5% better than Bush.

http://www.dailykos.com/


fb

[J. J.]

In Phila, there was a big African American turnout intitially, but it's stopped.  It might be a wave effect; I'll check between 5-7.

[Hearnes]

From Mydd

Here's some early exit data polling of Latinos in Florida (2000 numbers are in parenthesis):
       KERRY         BUSH

Hispanics    46 (35)      53 (65)
Cubans       32 (17)      68 (82)
Kerry continues to lead Florida overall as well. Again, these are exit poll numbers, so doubt them, but it looks great!

[Hearnes]

Kirsten Powers:

Matt Miller from the Kerry campaign in Florida just gave an update to reporters on how thing are on the ground. The bottom line is turnout is very high and voting is going smoothly. There have been a handful of minor incidents that have been solved by local election officials. Miller said turnout is higher in precincts that voted for Gore than in precincts that voted for Bush in 2000. More:

-- Dems are running ahead of where we were in 2000 at this point in the day.
-- Bush is running behind where he was at this point in 2000
-- In comparison to 2000, by this time of day there were widespread reports of problems in the state and today that is not the case. Things are proceeding well and no widespread reports of problems.
--Touchscreen voting machines are working.

A reporter asked a question about how the Republicans have made a lot of convicted felons voting, and have there been incidents about that. Miller said despite the bluster of the Republicans around this issue, thus far they haven't lodged many challenges.

[Mr. Morden]

New numbers from Wonkette:

FL: 52/48 - KERRY
OH: 52/47 - KERRY
MI: 51/48 - KERRY
PA: 58/42 - KERRY
IA: 50/48 - KERRY
WI: 53/47 - KERRY
MN: 57/42 - KERRY
NH: 58/41 - KERRY
ME: 55/44 - KERRY

NM: 49/49 - TIE

NV: 48/49 - BUSH
CO: 49/50 - BUSH
AR: 45/54 - BUSH
NC: 47/53 - BUSH


"A NOTE ON EXITS/EARLY POLLING: We post these numbers because information wants to be free! Run, information! Run for your life!

UPDATE: K/B 50/49 in fla at 4:15, says another birdie."

[freedomburns]

from Wonkette:

http://www.wonkette.com

The Birdies Sing a Sweet, Sweet Tune
FL: 52/48 - KERRY
OH: 52/47 - KERRY
MI: 51/48 - KERRY
PA: 58/42 - KERRY
IA: 50/48 - KERRY
WI: 53/47 - KERRY
MN: 57/42 - KERRY
NH: 58/41 - KERRY
ME: 55/44 - KERRY

NM: 49/49 - TIE

NV: 48/49 - BUSH
CO: 49/50 - BUSH
AR: 45/54 - BUSH
NC: 47/53 - BUSH


A NOTE ON EXITS/EARLY POLLING: We post these numbers because information wants to be free! Run, information! Run for your life!

freedomburns

[??????????]

Oh No! Landon Landslide!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Nation]

Wasn't VNS completely disbanded or something like that after 2000?