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Author Topic: Exit poll leaks  (Read 13815 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #75 on: November 02, 2004, 05:07:11 pm »
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It was renamed to National Election Pool.  The VNS tag could be an indication of accuracy.
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J. J.

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The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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StatesRights
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« Reply #76 on: November 02, 2004, 05:08:45 pm »
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Breaking news......

A exit poll from the Southern Women Hairstylists for Socialists has Kerry up 58 - 40 on Bush.
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Hearnes
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« Reply #77 on: November 02, 2004, 05:17:44 pm »
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Yeeeeeesssss Kerry is winning
wonkette:

Bush only up by one in Virginia? In gun-toting, gay-bashing VIRGINIA? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills!

Kerry = + numbers
FL +4
OH +5
MI +4
PA +16
IA +2
WI +5
MN +15
NV Bush up 1
NM tied at 49
CO Bush up 1
VA Bush up 1
NC Bush up 5

ALSO: WI, as of 4:41PM, 51/48 KERRY

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Hearnes
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« Reply #78 on: November 02, 2004, 05:25:03 pm »
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Our Call
Zogby International's 2004 Predictions
(as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm)


2004 Presidential Election

 Electoral Votes:
 
Bush
 213
 
Kerry
 311
 
To Close To Call
 Nevada (5)
 
To Close To Call
 Colorado (9
 
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StatesRights
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« Reply #79 on: November 02, 2004, 05:25:51 pm »
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In gun-toting, gay-bashing VIRGINIA? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills!



Take some more pills and piss off troll.
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AStanley
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« Reply #80 on: November 02, 2004, 05:27:16 pm »
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Wow. We have some really pissed off Republicans right now.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #81 on: November 02, 2004, 05:28:26 pm »
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Wait to see how Democrats are when the actual results come in.
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« Reply #82 on: November 02, 2004, 05:29:08 pm »
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Let's just plain WAIT until the actual results come in. Wink
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AStanley
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« Reply #83 on: November 02, 2004, 05:29:34 pm »
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That should be exciting.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #84 on: November 02, 2004, 05:30:37 pm »
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Democrats are desperate to put their faith in exit polls.
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lonestar
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« Reply #85 on: November 02, 2004, 05:32:23 pm »
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Strategic Vision is doing exit polling?

"At Strategic Vision, we have been reviewing and conducting exit polls and do not know where the media reports came from. We are showing a slight advantage for Bush in Florida by 1 point."

CEO of SV.
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« Reply #86 on: November 02, 2004, 05:35:04 pm »
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States-Yes, yes we are Cheesy
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Volrath50
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« Reply #87 on: November 02, 2004, 05:36:01 pm »
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Strategic Vision is doing exit polling?

"At Strategic Vision, we have been reviewing and conducting exit polls and do not know where the media reports came from. We are showing a slight advantage for Bush in Florida by 1 point."

CEO of SV.

Damn. If SV is showing it so close, it must be grim for Bush.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #88 on: November 02, 2004, 05:38:37 pm »
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I hate to bring actual facts into things but..

according to Drudge..

17:12:21 ET // UPDATE: Exit poll mania spread through media and campaign circles Tuesday evening after exit data from big media sources claimed Kerry competitive in key states.... FL Kerry +1 PA Kerry+2-4 OH Kerry+1 WI Kerry+4 MI Kerry+2 NH Kerry +4 // Senate Winners: Martinez FL Thune SD Bunning KY Salazar CO // Losers: Bowles NC Coors Co [CAUTION: Early 2000 exit polls showed Gore +3 in Florida; showed Gore-Bush even in CO [Bush won by 9], 2000 exits showed Gore +4 in AZ [Bush won by 6]]... Developing...

Bush and Martinez have been polling almost identically...

Survey USA in the same sample had
     =>BUsh +1 / Martinez Tied

Zogby  in the same sample had
     =>Bush tied / Martinez Tied

etc.. etc...

In fact in the last 12 poll Bush and Martinez were never more than 2% different in terms of a Lead / deficit.

Drudge has CALLED the Senate seat for Martinez.. ie he is up a fair bit..

If the result is indeed Kerrry +1 in Florida, rthere is NO WAY Martinex could be far enough ahead to be declared "elected"

Either Kerry +1 is wrong, or Martinez elected is wrong...


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Volrath50
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« Reply #89 on: November 02, 2004, 05:40:58 pm »
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Or Drudge is wrong.
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« Reply #90 on: November 02, 2004, 05:44:38 pm »
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Hmm, how many of those Hispanic voters would split their ballots for Kerry/Martinez?

Certainly not that many.

Someone is wrong.
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Hegemon
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« Reply #91 on: November 02, 2004, 05:45:23 pm »
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On Sean Hannity's radio show, Drudge is really giving the impression (perhaps unintentionally) that the exit polls are ugly for Bush.  He's not giving numbers, he's pointing out the past problems with exit polling, and he's railing against the biased mainstream media consortium behind the exit polls.  

If the exit polls looked good for Bush, he would report the numbers, as he did in 2000, and he would not repeatedly question the validity of exit polling,  but report the results uncritically, as he did in 2000.
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Lostknight
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« Reply #92 on: November 02, 2004, 05:46:00 pm »
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Kerry-Bush
FL 50-49
OH 50-49
PA 54-45
WI 51-46
MI 51-47
NH Kerry +3

NV 48-50
CO 46-53
NC 49-51
MO Bush +11

In early 2000, exit polls showed: Gore +3 in Florida;
Gore-Bush even in CO (Bush won by 9)
Gore +4 in AZ (Bush won by 6)


Senate Thune +4 (SD) (vs. Daschle)
Castor +3 (FL) (vs. Martinez)
Burr +6 (NC)
Bunning +6 (KT)
Coburn +6 (OK)
Demint +4 (SC)
Salazar +4 (CO) (vs. Coors)
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ATFFL
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« Reply #93 on: November 02, 2004, 05:46:56 pm »
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But, Hegemon, the exit polling was bad for the President in 2000.  The MSM expected him to lose the pV by mor than he did and to lose the EV as well.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #94 on: November 02, 2004, 05:48:19 pm »
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But, Hegemon, the exit polling was bad for the President in 2000.  The MSM expected him to lose the pV by mor than he did and to lose the EV as well.


Exactly, Bush is actually doing BETTER then 2000.
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khirkhib
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« Reply #95 on: November 02, 2004, 05:49:32 pm »
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Afternoon Exit Polls
The latest batch.
By Jack Shafer
Updated Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2004, at 2:29 PM PT


The 4 p.m. ET exit-poll numbers:

Florida
Kerry   52
Bush    48

Ohio
Kerry  52
Bush   47

Michigan
Kerry  51
Bush   48

Pennsylvania
Kerry  58
Bush   42

Iowa
Kerry  50
Bush   48

Wisconsin
Kerry   53
Bush    47

Minnesota
Kerry   57
Bush    42

New Hampshire
Kerry   58
Bush    41

Maine   
Kerry    55
Bush    44

New Mexico
Kerry   49
Bush    49

Nevada
Kerry   48
Bush   49

Colorado
Kerry   49
Bush    50

Arkansas
Kerry   45
Bush    54

North Carolina
Kerry   47
Bush   53
-------------------------------------------------------------

I think absantee ballots will pull Kerry wins in Iowa and Nevada
« Last Edit: November 02, 2004, 05:51:37 pm by The Fact Checker »Logged
Blue Rectangle
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« Reply #96 on: November 02, 2004, 05:54:57 pm »
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Afternoon Exit Polls
The latest batch.
By Jack Shafer
Updated Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2004, at 2:29 PM PT
Colorado
Kerry   49
Bush    50
So the third party vote is 1% in CO?  It was 7% in 2000.  Badnarik alone will probably get more than 2-3%.
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khirkhib
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« Reply #97 on: November 02, 2004, 06:03:58 pm »
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Updated Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2004, at 2:49 PM PT


The first wave of exit-poll data reaching my desk comes from a variety of sources. In some states the sources disagree about the specific margin by which a candidate leads, but never about which candidate is out in front. Some of the confusion may stem from the mixing of morning exit-poll numbers with early afternoon numbers. With those provisos and the understanding that the early numbers are predictive of nothing without their accompanying computer model, here's what I've heard:

Florida
Kerry  50
Bush   49

Ohio
Kerry  50
Bush   49

Pennsylvania
Kerry 54
Bush 45

Wisconsin
Kerry 51
Bush 46

Michigan
Kerry  51
Bush   47

Minnesota
Kerry  58
Bush   40

Nevada
Kerry  48
Bush   50

New Mexico
Kerry  50
Bush   48

North Carolina
Kerry  49
Bush   51

Colorado
Kerry  46
Bush   53

updated again, very close in florida and ohio
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Horus
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« Reply #98 on: November 02, 2004, 06:05:12 pm »
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Something is wrong with Minnesota.

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Horus
Sheliak5
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« Reply #99 on: November 02, 2004, 06:05:56 pm »
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Very close in North Carolina too, almost as much as Florida and Ohio.
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