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Author Topic: Exit poll leaks  (Read 13865 times)
ATFFL
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« on: November 02, 2004, 01:43:05 pm »
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This thread is set aside for posting reports of exit polls and commenting on them.  ANy deviance from this, such as discussing standardized test scores, will result in a Savage beating, namely I will pick up Michael Savage and beat you with him.  Yes, I am strong enough to do that.

Posting exit polls elsewhere will be punished by dressing you up as  a giant biscuit, covering you in bar-b-que sauce and locking you in a room with Lucky.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2004, 01:45:52 pm »
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I guess that was meant at me.  Smiley

Here's your first from NRO.  Take it with a grain of salt, as always.

http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/corner.asp

EXITS [KJL]
Bush leads ohio 49 to 41
Posted at 01:33 PM

Now, off to vote.
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millwx
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2004, 01:46:31 pm »
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Posting exit polls elsewhere will be punished by dressing you up as  a giant biscuit, covering you in bar-b-que sauce and locking you in a room with Lucky.
Since our posts crossed, I will submit myself to punishment (I just posted an Ohio exit thread)... it sounds fun. Smiley  Err... umm... nevermind.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2004, 01:47:40 pm »
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Heh.  I had posted while you were writing, so you may live.

I just figure this will be easier than 100 threads for 50 exit polls.
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Chuito
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2004, 01:51:06 pm »
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To be taken with a grain of salt indeed, seeing that that the National Review is ultra right wing.  Disregard the exit polls and wait for the results tonight!
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Friar
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2004, 01:51:57 pm »
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I guess that was meant at me.  Smiley

Here's your first from NRO.  Take it with a grain of salt, as always.

http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/corner.asp

EXITS [KJL]
Bush leads ohio 49 to 41
Posted at 01:33 PM

Now, off to vote.

A problem here. Who got the other 10%?
Smiley
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millwx
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2004, 01:53:09 pm »
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NRO just updated to Kerry +4% in Ohio.

Seeeeeeeeee.... I said not to trust the Exits!  :-D
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ATFFL
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2004, 01:53:55 pm »
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They just pulled that and put up Kerry +4 and an urge to get out the W vote.

Exit polls as a way to alter turnout I figure.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2004, 01:56:01 pm »
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For a moment, this looked like an unprecedented triumph for the Libertarians...Nader isn't even on the ballot in OH!  Glad to see sanity has been restored.
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A18
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2004, 01:56:55 pm »
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It would be great if Badnarik got 9% in Ohio, but it's not going to happen.
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MODU
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2004, 01:58:34 pm »
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hahaha . . . I would love to see the Libertarians get some kind of "decent" figure in the polls.  Might give them a chance in the next election.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2004, 01:59:01 pm »
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For a moment, this looked like an unprecedented triumph for the Libertarians...Nader isn't even on the ballot in OH!  Glad to see sanity has been restored.

Now it is just Kerry +4.  Could be Kerry 45-41 for all we know.
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millwx
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2004, 02:00:45 pm »
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Slew of early VNS numbers up at:
http://www.mydd.com/

Looks good for Kerry, but very early & I don't trust 'em.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2004, 02:14:32 pm by millwx »Logged

Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2004, 02:00:59 pm »
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The first full round is usually published at 2pm Eastern, so we should know very shortly....but of course, this is only very early morning results.
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A18
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2004, 02:03:33 pm »
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I don't believe exit polls. At 10:00, I think we'll know the winner - but probably not much prior to.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2004, 02:05:55 pm »
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I thought the voter news service was gone?
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Nym90
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« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2004, 02:06:29 pm »
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I don't believe exit polls. At 10:00, I think we'll know the winner - but probably not much prior to.

Uh oh, watch out there; you're violating J.J.'s 2nd rule of elections.
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A18
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« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2004, 02:07:17 pm »
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I believe the POLLS. I don't believe the EXIT polls.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2004, 02:17:09 pm »
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Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE....



Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- show Kerry in striking distance in Florida and Ohio.. MORE...



Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small lead -- in Florida and Ohio.. MORE...



« Last Edit: November 02, 2004, 02:26:19 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

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A18
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« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2004, 02:21:07 pm »
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No one believes Drudge
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sgpine
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« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2004, 02:22:39 pm »
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    AZ  CO  LA  PA  OH  FL  MI  NM  MN  WI  IA  NH
Kerry    45  48  42  60  52  51  51  50  58  52  49  57
Bush    55  51  57  40  48  48  47  48  40  43  49  41

From VNS
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lidaker
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« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2004, 02:23:29 pm »
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Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE....



Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- show Kerry in striking distance in Florida and Ohio.. MORE...



Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small lead -- in Florida and Ohio.. MORE...



\

Damn! This means Bush by a landslide
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2004, 02:28:58 pm »
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Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE....



Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- show Kerry in striking distance in Florida and Ohio.. MORE...



Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small lead -- in Florida and Ohio.. MORE...



\

Damn! This means Bush by a landslide

Needless to say.. since the demographics of those who vote during the day is very different than thos who vote at night... these mean very little Smiley
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sgpine
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« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2004, 02:31:39 pm »
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Agreed...athough Kerry's leads by 20 in Pennsylvania, 18 in Minnesota, and 16 in New Hampshire will certainly be no where near that much of a blowout, you have to figure that such large gaps bode very well for Kerry in those states.
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J. J.
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« Reply #24 on: November 02, 2004, 02:34:25 pm »
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I don't believe exit polls. At 10:00, I think we'll know the winner - but probably not much prior to.

Uh oh, watch out there; you're violating J.J.'s 2nd rule of elections.

No, he's violating J. J.'s First Rule of Elections.  The exits are probably showing a Kerry lead among voters this morning.  That doesn't take into accout those early voters and it has a different demographic than the the later voters.

It also doesn't take into account the GOTV drives.
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J. J.

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