Exit poll leaks

[The Vorlon]

Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE....


Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- show Kerry in striking distance in Florida and Ohio.. MORE...


Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small lead -- in Florida and Ohio.. MORE...

[The Vorlon]

Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE....


Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- show Kerry in striking distance in Florida and Ohio.. MORE...


Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small lead -- in Florida and Ohio.. MORE...


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Damn! This means Bush by a landslide

Needless to say.. since the demographics of those who vote during the day is very different than thos who vote at night... these mean very little

[The Vorlon]

Drudge posted those numbers - but now took them down

[The Vorlon]

Re Florida.

Drudge has posted that Castor in the senate race is +3.

Castor/Kerry vs Bush/Marteniez have polled very similarly so from this we can infer the Florida number of Kerry +1 (as per NRO) or Kerry +4 are "sane" if not accurate.

Exit polls in 2000 BTW wretchedly underpolled Hispanics/Cubans by a vast amount - Exit polls are set up a a very few polling stations and then "post stratified" to match the actual results.

The +4 or +1 for Kerry Tells me Florida is very close based on a 59 / 41 Female / Male split.

If the real number is +1 Kerry based on 59 / 41 male / female Bush is likely up a bit, if it is +4 for Kerry the race is basically tied.

[The Vorlon]

On the HUGE assumption that the 1% Kerry leads in Florida and Ohio (Drudge now reports they are indeed 1% leads) based upon a 59 / 41 Gender split Bush would be marginally ahead in both.

Remember also that Exit polls have a whole whack of error associated with them as well.

We know no more or less than we knew 6 hours ago IMHO

[The Vorlon]

I hate to bring actual facts into things but..

according to Drudge..

17:12:21 ET // UPDATE: Exit poll mania spread through media and campaign circles Tuesday evening after exit data from big media sources claimed Kerry competitive in key states.... FL Kerry +1 PA Kerry+2-4 OH Kerry+1 WI Kerry+4 MI Kerry+2 NH Kerry +4 // Senate Winners: Martinez FL Thune SD Bunning KY Salazar CO // Losers: Bowles NC Coors Co [CAUTION: Early 2000 exit polls showed Gore +3 in Florida; showed Gore-Bush even in CO [Bush won by 9], 2000 exits showed Gore +4 in AZ [Bush won by 6]]... Developing...

Bush and Martinez have been polling almost identically...

Survey USA in the same sample had
     =>BUsh +1 / Martinez Tied

Zogby  in the same sample had
     =>Bush tied / Martinez Tied

etc.. etc...

In fact in the last 12 poll Bush and Martinez were never more than 2% different in terms of a Lead / deficit.

Drudge has CALLED the Senate seat for Martinez.. ie he is up a fair bit..

If the result is indeed Kerrry +1 in Florida, rthere is NO WAY Martinex could be far enough ahead to be declared "elected"

Either Kerry +1 is wrong, or Martinez elected is wrong...