Exit poll leaks

[khirkhib]

But it is interesting.

[khirkhib]

Afternoon Exit Polls
The latest batch.
By Jack Shafer
Updated Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2004, at 2:29 PM PT


The 4 p.m. ET exit-poll numbers:

Florida
Kerry   52
Bush    48

Ohio
Kerry  52
Bush   47

Michigan
Kerry  51
Bush   48

Pennsylvania
Kerry  58
Bush   42

Iowa
Kerry  50
Bush   48

Wisconsin
Kerry   53
Bush    47

Minnesota
Kerry   57
Bush    42

New Hampshire
Kerry   58
Bush    41

Maine   
Kerry    55
Bush    44

New Mexico
Kerry   49
Bush    49

Nevada
Kerry   48
Bush   49

Colorado
Kerry   49
Bush    50

Arkansas
Kerry   45
Bush    54

North Carolina
Kerry   47
Bush   53
-------------------------------------------------------------

I think absantee ballots will pull Kerry wins in Iowa and Nevada

[khirkhib]

Updated Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2004, at 2:49 PM PT


The first wave of exit-poll data reaching my desk comes from a variety of sources. In some states the sources disagree about the specific margin by which a candidate leads, but never about which candidate is out in front. Some of the confusion may stem from the mixing of morning exit-poll numbers with early afternoon numbers. With those provisos and the understanding that the early numbers are predictive of nothing without their accompanying computer model, here's what I've heard:

Florida
Kerry  50
Bush   49

Ohio
Kerry  50
Bush   49

Pennsylvania
Kerry 54
Bush 45

Wisconsin
Kerry 51
Bush 46

Michigan
Kerry  51
Bush   47

Minnesota
Kerry  58
Bush   40

Nevada
Kerry  48
Bush   50

New Mexico
Kerry  50
Bush   48

North Carolina
Kerry  49
Bush   51

Colorado
Kerry  46
Bush   53

updated again, very close in florida and ohio