"Sleeper" House Seats

[Vepres]

So, do you think there are any seats that could potentially be "sleeper seats"? What I mean is, they are largely held to be safe for the incumbent, but then the election turns out to be close or even a victory for the challenger.

[Sam Spade]

If a wave gets going, sure.

The most likely areas being wherever the wave hits or the most Republican of the seats where the incumbent has done no campaigning or has spent no money.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Do I dare say PA-13?  Nah, Dee Adcock is not going to get attention from the NRCC.  However, I have seen a few lawn signs for him.

[Sibboleth]

In a normal election* there are always results which cause a shock to most observers. Usually if you're good at watching elections and sufficiently obsessive about them you can spot most of them in advance, though chances are you'll never spot everything going on.

That's a 'yes', by the way.

In addition to the obvious stuff, cinyc's theories are worth paying attention to. They are extremely partisan, of course and are quite likely to be meaningless, but we should not forget that the poster that called the scale of 2006 with the most accuracy was Scoonie; equally partisan but for the other side. Just a thought.

*The essentially static pattern of House races in the early 2000s was not normal by either international or historical American standards. It's actually quite unusual for so little to shift and for so many seats to be so utterly safe.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

If Gene Taylor continues to cruise on autopilot, I wouldn't be surprised to see him go.

[Mr.Phips]

If Gene Taylor continues to cruise on autopilot, I wouldn't be surprised to see him go.

If Taylor could get through 1994 with ease, I dont see him being going unless its in a pine box. 

[BillyW]

But thats what makes it a sleeper. No one is expecting it. I think Taylor could indeed not make it this year.

Would Chet Edwards be a sleeper? I'm putting in the call.

[Sam Spade]

But thats what makes it a sleeper. No one is expecting it. I think Taylor could indeed not make it this year.

Would Chet Edwards be a sleeper? I'm putting in the call.

Edwards has a serious, funded opponent.  Cook has it as Toss-up, as do I.  Rothenberg has it at toss-up, tilt Dem.

A good example would be Taylor or Ross or Boren or maybe even Matheson.

Personally, I tend to agree with JLT.  There is one big reason why that shows up in the past.

[nhmagic]

ME01-Chellie Pingree, apparently her fundraising is abhorrent and her opponent is a very formidable candidate - dems could be sleeping in on this one

[GJ12]

ME01-Chellie Pingree, apparently her fundraising is abhorrent and her opponent is a very formidable candidate - dems could be sleeping in on this one

Ya, I grew up there and it is definetely more conservative than you would expect.

[nhmagic]

ME01-Chellie Pingree, apparently her fundraising is abhorrent and her opponent is a very formidable candidate - dems could be sleeping in on this one

Ya, I grew up there and it is definetely more conservative than you would expect.

kind of, Portland has a lot of cruncy granola types, I live in NH, but have a job in that district - there are more dems for sure, but I can totally see them staying home and the conservatives coming out

[GJ12]

ME01-Chellie Pingree, apparently her fundraising is abhorrent and her opponent is a very formidable candidate - dems could be sleeping in on this one

Ya, I grew up there and it is definetely more conservative than you would expect.

kind of, Portland has a lot of cruncy granola types, I live in NH, but have a job in that district - there are more dems for sure, but I can totally see them staying home and the conservatives coming out

Portland is latte liberals for the most part with some working class areas but the burbs are more fiscally conservative and we have some deeply religious rural parts too.

[nhmagic]

ME01-Chellie Pingree, apparently her fundraising is abhorrent and her opponent is a very formidable candidate - dems could be sleeping in on this one

Ya, I grew up there and it is definetely more conservative than you would expect.

kind of, Portland has a lot of cruncy granola types, I live in NH, but have a job in that district - there are more dems for sure, but I can totally see them staying home and the conservatives coming out

Portland is latte liberals for the most part with some working class areas but the burbs are more fiscally conservative and we have some deeply religious rural parts too.

True

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Pingree's been outraising her opponent about 3-1 since he got in the race, and has $266k on hand to his $40k.

[GJ12]

Pingree's been outraising her opponent about 3-1 since he got in the race, and has $266k on hand to his $40k.

A wall of cash can't stop a wave.

[nhmagic]

Pingree's been outraising her opponent about 3-1 since he got in the race, and has $266k on hand to his $40k.

Yeah, but you compare her fundraising totals to that of other dem incumbents and its really weak and her spending is fairly high.  No signs up either by the way in key areas she needs them to be in.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Pingree's been outraising her opponent about 3-1 since he got in the race, and has $266k on hand to his $40k.

Yeah, but you compare her fundraising totals to that of other dem incumbents and its really weak and her spending is fairly high.  No signs up either by the way in key areas she needs them to be in.

All right, just keep moving those goalposts then.

[GJ12]

The signs I've seen are almost ALL for LePage.

[cinyc]

In general, the sleeper House seats are in the suburbs of the Northeast and Midwest where the incumbent doesn't know that he or she is in trouble and won't campaign much.  Most of these incumbents do have large war chests, which they are already spending on something - though I have no idea really what.

In the NY portion of the NYC metro area, you're not talking about NY-01 (Bishop), NY-13 (McMahon) or NY-19 (Hall) - all of whose incumbents should know their races will likely be close and run for their lives.  You're talking about the next tier of candidates - NY-02 (Israel), NY-04 (McCarthy) and NY-18 (Lowey) - all of whom are real longshots to lose, but might not sense that they may be in trouble.  The good news for Israel and Lowey is that their potential Republican opponents are underwhelming and underfunded.  

In Connecticut, CT-04 (Himes) and CT-05 (Murphy) should be somewhat competitive  - and the incumbents probably already know it.  CT-02 (Courtney) is probably the only sleeper CT district that I could possibly see flip, depending on who ends up winning the Republican nomination.  It won't be Rob Simmons, who would have given Courtney a real run for his money in Simmons' old district.  Calling CT-02 a sleeper may be a bit of a stretch given that Courtney barely beat Simmons in 2006, though.

In Massachusetts, the only seat on anyone's radar is the open MA-10.    It's really hard to see any other MA seat flipping, but MA-05 (Tsongas) or MA-06 (Tierney) would probably be the next most likely.  If you assume Brown outperformed in MA-03 because it included his hometown, he performed next best in MA-02, MA-05 and MA-06. Republicans have always hoped Tsongas was vulnerable, though it has never happened.  In MA-06, with his own money included, Hudak almost raised as much money as Tierney in the first quarter, but Tierney has a huge warchest.  None of the MA-02 candidates seems impressive or capable of fundraising or winning.

[Dan the Roman]

In general, the sleeper House seats are in the suburbs of the Northeast and Midwest where the incumbent doesn't know that he or she is in trouble and won't campaign much.  Most of these incumbents do have large war chests, which they are already spending on something - though I have no idea really what.

In the NY portion of the NYC metro area, you're not talking about NY-01 (Bishop), NY-13 (McMahon) or NY-19 (Hall) - all of whose incumbents should know their races will likely be close and run for their lives.  You're talking about the next tier of candidates - NY-02 (Israel), NY-04 (McCarthy) and NY-18 (Lowey) - all of whom are real longshots to lose, but might not sense that they may be in trouble.  The good news for Israel and Lowey is that their potential Republican opponents are underwhelming and underfunded.  

In Connecticut, CT-04 (Himes) and CT-05 (Murphy) should be somewhat competitive  - and the incumbents probably already know it.  CT-02 (Courtney) is probably the only sleeper CT district that I could possibly see flip, depending on who ends up winning the Republican nomination.  It won't be Rob Simmons, who would have given Courtney a real run for his money in Simmons' old district.  Calling CT-02 a sleeper may be a bit of a stretch given that Courtney barely beat Simmons in 2006, though.

In Massachusetts, the only seat on anyone's radar is the open MA-10.    It's really hard to see any other MA seat flipping, but MA-05 (Tsongas) or MA-06 (Tierney) would probably be the next most likely.  If you assume Brown outperformed in MA-03 because it included his hometown, he performed next best in MA-02, MA-05 and MA-06. Republicans have always hoped Tsongas was vulnerable, though it has never happened.  In MA-06, with his own money included, Hudak almost raised as much money as Tierney in the first quarter, but Tierney has a huge warchest.  None of the MA-02 candidates seems impressive or capable of fundraising or winning.

MA-06, and maybe MA-02. Tierney is a much stronger incumbent than Tsongas, and Meas is a better candidate than Hudak. Neal would have been gone with a decent GOP candidate. Major recruiting failure for the GOP.

ME-01 is a weak and unpopular Democrat v. a weak Republican. In a low-info race where Pingree is on auto-pilot, she could get into real trouble. If she engages though, Scontras is probably way far to the right. Which to be fair, is less bad than being a lunatic and having by-weekly staff turnover, which is Hudak's problem.

[Mr.Phips]

Pingree's been outraising her opponent about 3-1 since he got in the race, and has $266k on hand to his $40k.

A wall of cash can't stop a wave.

A wave is not going to send a barely funded teabagger candidate to Congress from a liberal district like ME-01.  That would be like a no-name Democrat with no money beating Jim McCrery in LA-04 in 2006.

[Dgov]

Raul Grijalva.  The most prominent opponent of the Arizona Law, running in a district that almost certainly supports it and covers the most affected area.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Raul Grijalva.  The most prominent opponent of the Arizona Law, running in a district that almost certainly supports it and covers the most affected area.

Yes, I'm sure this crowd is going to play well in a district that went double-digits for Kerry and Obama:

http://www.cflow4azcd7.com/
http://www.ruth4az.com/
http://www.myers4congress.com/
http://www.josephsweeneyforcongress.org/
http://www.robertwilsonforcongress.com/

[So the Heroes Fall]

CA-37 of course guys. azmagic and redcommander said it was winnable!

[Vasall des Midas]

http://www.josephsweeneyforcongress.org/

Wow.

Of course, have you ever seen this page? Been around for ages.