If Arlen Specter Had Stayed A Republican...

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

If Arlen Specter had stayed a Republican, and by a fluke of the gods beat out Toomey for the GOP nomination (I know this is highly unrealistic, but please bear with me on this scenario), would he have lost to Joe Sestak in the general election?

[Kevin]

If Arlen Specter had stayed a Republican, and by a fluke of the gods beat out Toomey for the GOP nomination (I know this is highly unrealistic, but please bear with me on this scenario), would he have lost to Joe Sestak in the general election?

No, I think he would be in the same electoral position as Tommey, but a little better.

[Torie]

Interesting question. I think yes, actually, if Sestak had positioned himself a bit differently, and assuming his candidacy buy out comments were not fatal in and of themselves. But clearly in hindsight certainly, Specter had a zero chance of beating Toomey. I mean, given the GOP incumbents who went down this cycle, Specter would have been totally fried - a fortiori.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

If he had stayed a Republican and lost in the primary it would have been better for the Democrat in the race as Toomey wouldn't have been able to define himself as a moderate as he has done now. Specter would have tried to attack Toomey as much as he could have which would have hurt him for the general election.

[TeePee4Prez]

You would have had a Constitution Party candidate getting 10% of the vote.  Sestak MIGHT have had a better shot.

[J. J.]

If Arlen Specter had stayed a Republican, and by a fluke of the gods beat out Toomey for the GOP nomination (I know this is highly unrealistic, but please bear with me on this scenario), would he have lost to Joe Sestak in the general election?

Probably not, especially in this cycle.  Interestingly, he beat back a conservative challenger in 1986 in the primary and went of to defeat the Democratic congressman from Delaware County.

[Bo]

I think Specter would have won this year in your scenario due to the massive GOP wave. Teabaggers would have reluctantly voted for him, while moderates would also have voted for Specter in large numbers as well.