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Author Topic: "Sleeper" House Seats  (Read 5347 times)
Хahar
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« Reply #50 on: July 08, 2010, 01:58:53 am »
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Raul Grijalva.  The most prominent opponent of the Arizona Law, running in a district that almost certainly supports it and covers the most affected area.
http://www.josephsweeneyforcongress.org/

Holy Hell, is he running in 1998 or 2010?

His site links to this page. So I believe the answer is 2006.
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« Reply #51 on: July 09, 2010, 07:55:57 am »
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I think this is a better challenger:

http://www.ruth4az.com/

Not only does she have a website that's only bad instead of god-awful-disgusting, but her website has this important graphic on the homepage:



BREAKING NEWS: The Twitter icon for "Phuket Gay Resort" uses the SAME ICON

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Ameriplan
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« Reply #52 on: July 10, 2010, 07:33:34 am »
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Do I dare say PA-13?  Nah, Dee Adcock is not going to get attention from the NRCC.  However, I have seen a few lawn signs for him.

Lol.

I'd have to say Altmire's seat, but he is pretty conservative.
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« Reply #53 on: July 10, 2010, 07:36:45 am »
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I think this is a better challenger:

http://www.ruth4az.com/

Not only does she have a website that's only bad instead of god-awful-disgusting, but her website has this important graphic on the homepage:



Quote from: Wikipedia
50.6% Hispanic

Erm, no.
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« Reply #54 on: July 11, 2010, 12:06:01 pm »
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Do I dare say PA-13?  Nah, Dee Adcock is not going to get attention from the NRCC.  However, I have seen a few lawn signs for him.

Lol.

I'd have to say Altmire's seat, but he is pretty conservative.

Altmire wouldn't be considered "sleeper" for it is known to be conservative to begin with and a conservative Dem is representing the district.  It would however, take a severe wave for Allyson Schwartz to get knocked off in the 13th, but the candidate is unimpressive.  If Bruce Castor were to run, I'd put this on Watch List at least, possibly Likely Dem.  I would think the 7th and 8th would have long flipped back before this is even a possibility as well.
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« Reply #55 on: July 11, 2010, 12:13:14 pm »
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Do I dare say PA-13?  Nah, Dee Adcock is not going to get attention from the NRCC.  However, I have seen a few lawn signs for him.

Lol.

I'd have to say Altmire's seat, but he is pretty conservative.

Altmire wouldn't be considered "sleeper" for it is known to be conservative to begin with and a conservative Dem is representing the district.  It would however, take a severe wave for Allyson Schwartz to get knocked off in the 13th, but the candidate is unimpressive.  If Bruce Castor were to run, I'd put this on Watch List at least, possibly Likely Dem.  I would think the 7th and 8th would have long flipped back before this is even a possibility as well.

Possible. However, with a Cook PVI of D+7, a lot of craziness has to happen before a Republican is elected.
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« Reply #56 on: July 11, 2010, 01:18:42 pm »
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Bill Johnson vs. Charlie Wilson in OH-6
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« Reply #57 on: July 11, 2010, 01:22:35 pm »
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Do I dare say PA-13?  Nah, Dee Adcock is not going to get attention from the NRCC.  However, I have seen a few lawn signs for him.

Lol.

I'd have to say Altmire's seat, but he is pretty conservative.

Altmire wouldn't be considered "sleeper" for it is known to be conservative to begin with and a conservative Dem is representing the district.  It would however, take a severe wave for Allyson Schwartz to get knocked off in the 13th, but the candidate is unimpressive.  If Bruce Castor were to run, I'd put this on Watch List at least, possibly Likely Dem.  I would think the 7th and 8th would have long flipped back before this is even a possibility as well.

Possible. However, with a Cook PVI of D+7, a lot of craziness has to happen before a Republican is elected.

Another one I forgot: PA-15.  But it would have to be an average or good Democratic year.  Don Cunningham should have ran in 2006 or 08, not now.  PA-6 the same thing.  The Dems ran a dud in 2008, who almost won anyway, when that was definitely the year with Obama winning the district by 18 points.
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« Reply #58 on: July 11, 2010, 02:02:15 pm »
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Do I dare say PA-13?  Nah, Dee Adcock is not going to get attention from the NRCC.  However, I have seen a few lawn signs for him.

Lol.

I'd have to say Altmire's seat, but he is pretty conservative.

Altmire wouldn't be considered "sleeper" for it is known to be conservative to begin with and a conservative Dem is representing the district.  It would however, take a severe wave for Allyson Schwartz to get knocked off in the 13th, but the candidate is unimpressive.  If Bruce Castor were to run, I'd put this on Watch List at least, possibly Likely Dem.  I would think the 7th and 8th would have long flipped back before this is even a possibility as well.

Possible. However, with a Cook PVI of D+7, a lot of craziness has to happen before a Republican is elected.

Another one I forgot: PA-15.  But it would have to be an average or good Democratic year.  Don Cunningham should have ran in 2006 or 08, not now.  PA-6 the same thing.  The Dems ran a dud in 2008, who almost won anyway, when that was definitely the year with Obama winning the district by 18 points.

My home district Smiley . Yeah, you're right Dems should have run better but Dent's safe for another cycle. As for PA-6, it's probably the same deal. only D+4 in a tough year, that 4 is erased.
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« Reply #59 on: July 11, 2010, 03:47:38 pm »
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Do I dare say PA-13?  Nah, Dee Adcock is not going to get attention from the NRCC.  However, I have seen a few lawn signs for him.

Lol.

I'd have to say Altmire's seat, but he is pretty conservative.

Altmire wouldn't be considered "sleeper" for it is known to be conservative to begin with and a conservative Dem is representing the district.  It would however, take a severe wave for Allyson Schwartz to get knocked off in the 13th, but the candidate is unimpressive.  If Bruce Castor were to run, I'd put this on Watch List at least, possibly Likely Dem.  I would think the 7th and 8th would have long flipped back before this is even a possibility as well.

Possible. However, with a Cook PVI of D+7, a lot of craziness has to happen before a Republican is elected.

Another one I forgot: PA-15.  But it would have to be an average or good Democratic year.  Don Cunningham should have ran in 2006 or 08, not now.  PA-6 the same thing.  The Dems ran a dud in 2008, who almost won anyway, when that was definitely the year with Obama winning the district by 18 points.

My home district Smiley . Yeah, you're right Dems should have run better but Dent's safe for another cycle. As for PA-6, it's probably the same deal. only D+4 in a tough year, that 4 is erased.

I've spent a lot of time in the Lehigh Valley at one point.  True swing district.  Hard to tell what will happen.  Lots of unions there, but lots of exurbs (NYC/Philly).  Voted for Toomey and Obama.  Go figure.  I agree with you on Dent- he's safe, but only for this cycle.

PA-6 will be a Dem district if kept intact at some point when Gerlach retires.  I'd still have it Lean GOP, but that's only considering the cycle.
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« Reply #60 on: July 14, 2010, 09:27:20 am »
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Bill Johnson vs. Charlie Wilson in OH-6

I doubt it, Charlie Wilson is (like Strickland) quite popular in that district. 
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« Reply #61 on: September 06, 2010, 12:52:00 am »
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Bumping this because there will probably be more of these.

Here are some that have been on mind (I haven't looked at the districts specifically, mind you), what do you guys think? (some are very out there, I know, but that is sort of the point, no?)

CA-10
CT-02
IA-02
Either Maine district
MN-07
MS-04
NY-27
OH-06
TX-27
TX-28
UT-02
VT-AL (I know, but the state has an independent streak and Welch didn't exactly cruise into his first term in 2006, a good Dem year)
WA-06

I'm not saying any will flip, or even be within single digits, I'm just throwing some ideas out there, as I suspect there will be a few surprises on election night given the nature of this election.
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« Reply #62 on: September 06, 2010, 01:22:44 am »
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CA-10 isn't flipping. If Garamendi can win with double digits in a special election, I think he should be fine in a general election. This would be something like the 100-110th seat to flip.
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« Reply #63 on: September 06, 2010, 02:09:32 am »
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In MN-07 there was a nasty primary between a complete joke candidate and the complete joke candidate who got clobbered in 2008. The complete joke candidate who didn't run last time run, so the joke from 2008 is going to run again as an independent. That itself doesn't help the GOP's chances.
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« Reply #64 on: September 06, 2010, 03:30:07 am »
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I would say WA-1 and WA-9 should be on the sleeper seat radar. If the wave is as big as in 94, Washington state should be extremely vulnerable for Democrats. Haven't seen any polling out from those districts yet, but the challengers appear to be viable and have the funding to be able to pull out wins.

WA-1 James Watkins http://www.watkinsforcongress.com/

WA-9 Dick Muri http://www.dickmuri.com/



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« Reply #65 on: September 06, 2010, 03:39:08 am »
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TX-27 should be on the radar.  It's a Hispanic-majority district, but Ortiz only won 56% there in 2008 despite being a 28-year incumbent, and it only voted 50% for Obama in 2008.  Bush also won the district substantially.  No idea about the challenger though.
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« Reply #66 on: September 06, 2010, 07:08:07 am »
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Bumping this because there will probably be more of these.

Here are some that have been on mind (I haven't looked at the districts specifically, mind you), what do you guys think? (some are very out there, I know, but that is sort of the point, no?)

CA-10
CT-02
IA-02
Either Maine district
MN-07
MS-04
NY-27
OH-06
TX-27
TX-28
UT-02
VT-AL (I know, but the state has an independent streak and Welch didn't exactly cruise into his first term in 2006, a good Dem year)
WA-06

I'm not saying any will flip, or even be within single digits, I'm just throwing some ideas out there, as I suspect there will be a few surprises on election night given the nature of this election.

MS-04 and OH-06 have been on both Sam Spade's and my lists for a while now. The challengers in most of those other districts haven't raised any significant money. I'm sure there will be a couple surprises on election night, since there always are, but at this point I think the field is pretty well set.
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« Reply #67 on: September 06, 2010, 10:00:06 am »
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Bumping this because there will probably be more of these.

Here are some that have been on mind (I haven't looked at the districts specifically, mind you), what do you guys think? (some are very out there, I know, but that is sort of the point, no?)

CA-10
CT-02
IA-02
Either Maine district
MN-07
MS-04
NY-27
OH-06
TX-27
TX-28
UT-02
VT-AL (I know, but the state has an independent streak and Welch didn't exactly cruise into his first term in 2006, a good Dem year)
WA-06

I'm not saying any will flip, or even be within single digits, I'm just throwing some ideas out there, as I suspect there will be a few surprises on election night given the nature of this election.
Pingree has a ton of money and her opponent doesn't.  Turnout will be decent for Rs because of LePage on the ticket and working class Mainers are going to be coming out in droves to vote against the dems - however, Scontras isn't making any waves primarily because he's out of money.  Some good attention from say Scott Brown or Chris Christie might help - ME's not too far for either of them. I dont think he'll beat her though.
Michaud on the other hand would be vulnerable if Rs took some interest in the race. LePage being on the ticket will definitely help in northern ME.  Jason Levesque needs cash badly and he's got to find a way to do that on the quick.  This state needs some polling done.
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« Reply #68 on: September 06, 2010, 10:09:18 am »
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Bumping this because there will probably be more of these.

Here are some that have been on mind (I haven't looked at the districts specifically, mind you), what do you guys think? (some are very out there, I know, but that is sort of the point, no?)

CA-10
CT-02
IA-02
Either Maine district
MN-07
MS-04
NY-27
OH-06
TX-27
TX-28
UT-02
VT-AL (I know, but the state has an independent streak and Welch didn't exactly cruise into his first term in 2006, a good Dem year)
WA-06

I'm not saying any will flip, or even be within single digits, I'm just throwing some ideas out there, as I suspect there will be a few surprises on election night given the nature of this election.

Dicks got 58% in 1994. Anyone under the age of 52 in this district has never seen another Democratic nominee for Congress on the ballot. He's going nowhere.

If you want "sleeper" Washington districts then go with WA-09 followed by WA-01. But considering the pitiful fundraising by Smith and Inslee's opponents I don't see how those are going to be competitive either.
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« Reply #69 on: September 06, 2010, 10:14:37 am »
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Bumping this because there will probably be more of these.

Here are some that have been on mind (I haven't looked at the districts specifically, mind you), what do you guys think? (some are very out there, I know, but that is sort of the point, no?)

CA-10
CT-02
IA-02
Either Maine district
MN-07
MS-04
NY-27
OH-06
TX-27
TX-28
UT-02
VT-AL (I know, but the state has an independent streak and Welch didn't exactly cruise into his first term in 2006, a good Dem year)
WA-06

I'm not saying any will flip, or even be within single digits, I'm just throwing some ideas out there, as I suspect there will be a few surprises on election night given the nature of this election.

Dicks got 58% in 1994. Anyone under the age of 52 in this district has never seen another Democratic nominee for Congress on the ballot. He's going nowhere.

If you want "sleeper" Washington districts then go with WA-09 followed by WA-01. But considering the pitiful fundraising by Smith and Inslee's opponents I don't see how those are going to be competitive either.

Oh, okay. I was looking at the PVIs mainly.

Yeah, I don't see either WA-09 or WA-01 being close, but Washington did vote in a bizarre way in the last Republican wave.
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« Reply #70 on: September 06, 2010, 10:57:59 am »
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I'd love to know where these magical coattails in Maine are coming from, considering LePage is under 40% in the polls.
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« Reply #71 on: September 06, 2010, 12:14:30 pm »
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VT-AL (I know, but the state has an independent streak and Welch didn't exactly cruise into his first term in 2006, a good Dem year)

rofl
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« Reply #72 on: September 06, 2010, 12:30:18 pm »

VT-AL (I know, but the state has an independent streak and Welch didn't exactly cruise into his first term in 2006, a good Dem year)

rofl

Yeah, the guy that the Republicans also nominated to run for re-election in 2008 is certainly one to watch this year.
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I just slept for 11 hours, so I should need a nap today, but we'll see.
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« Reply #73 on: September 06, 2010, 12:50:49 pm »
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VT-AL (I know, but the state has an independent streak and Welch didn't exactly cruise into his first term in 2006, a good Dem year)

rofl

Yeah, the guy that the Republicans also nominated to run for re-election in 2008 is certainly one to watch this year.

I really don't follow...
« Last Edit: September 06, 2010, 01:12:59 pm by Vepres »Logged

LOL, Failure

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« Reply #74 on: September 06, 2010, 01:21:50 pm »
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VT-AL (I know, but the state has an independent streak and Welch didn't exactly cruise into his first term in 2006, a good Dem year)

rofl

Yeah, the guy that the Republicans also nominated to run for re-election in 2008 is certainly one to watch this year.

I really don't follow...

Welch got the Democratic and Republican nominations in Vermont in 2008.
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