"Sleeper" House Seats

[JohnnyLongtorso]

If Gene Taylor continues to cruise on autopilot, I wouldn't be surprised to see him go.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Pingree's been outraising her opponent about 3-1 since he got in the race, and has $266k on hand to his $40k.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Pingree's been outraising her opponent about 3-1 since he got in the race, and has $266k on hand to his $40k.

Yeah, but you compare her fundraising totals to that of other dem incumbents and its really weak and her spending is fairly high.  No signs up either by the way in key areas she needs them to be in.

All right, just keep moving those goalposts then.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Raul Grijalva.  The most prominent opponent of the Arizona Law, running in a district that almost certainly supports it and covers the most affected area.

Yes, I'm sure this crowd is going to play well in a district that went double-digits for Kerry and Obama:

http://www.cflow4azcd7.com/
http://www.ruth4az.com/
http://www.myers4congress.com/
http://www.josephsweeneyforcongress.org/
http://www.robertwilsonforcongress.com/

[JohnnyLongtorso]

omfg, has anyone on his staff even seen the website?  Click on the numbered tabs featured in the menu navigation.  

I highly doubt he has any paid staff. Ruth McClung is the only Republican in AZ-07 that's filed any FEC reports, and she's raised all of $23k (over 9 months, and a lot of it looks like in-kinds). She does have a campaign manager, who appears to be donating her time. Her husband appears to have done the website (also donated).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Bumping this because there will probably be more of these.

Here are some that have been on mind (I haven't looked at the districts specifically, mind you), what do you guys think? (some are very out there, I know, but that is sort of the point, no?)

CA-10
CT-02
IA-02
Either Maine district
MN-07
MS-04
NY-27
OH-06
TX-27
TX-28
UT-02
VT-AL (I know, but the state has an independent streak and Welch didn't exactly cruise into his first term in 2006, a good Dem year)
WA-06

I'm not saying any will flip, or even be within single digits, I'm just throwing some ideas out there, as I suspect there will be a few surprises on election night given the nature of this election.

MS-04 and OH-06 have been on both Sam Spade's and my lists for a while now. The challengers in most of those other districts haven't raised any significant money. I'm sure there will be a couple surprises on election night, since there always are, but at this point I think the field is pretty well set.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'd love to know where these magical coattails in Maine are coming from, considering LePage is under 40% in the polls.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Julia Carson never really campaigned much; she had a lot of health problems while she was in Congress. She'd always manage to win, though.