"Sleeper" House Seats

[Vepres]

So, do you think there are any seats that could potentially be "sleeper seats"? What I mean is, they are largely held to be safe for the incumbent, but then the election turns out to be close or even a victory for the challenger.

[Vepres]

Bumping this because there will probably be more of these.

Here are some that have been on mind (I haven't looked at the districts specifically, mind you), what do you guys think? (some are very out there, I know, but that is sort of the point, no?)

CA-10
CT-02
IA-02
Either Maine district
MN-07
MS-04
NY-27
OH-06
TX-27
TX-28
UT-02
VT-AL (I know, but the state has an independent streak and Welch didn't exactly cruise into his first term in 2006, a good Dem year)
WA-06

I'm not saying any will flip, or even be within single digits, I'm just throwing some ideas out there, as I suspect there will be a few surprises on election night given the nature of this election.

[Vepres]

Bumping this because there will probably be more of these.

Here are some that have been on mind (I haven't looked at the districts specifically, mind you), what do you guys think? (some are very out there, I know, but that is sort of the point, no?)

CA-10
CT-02
IA-02
Either Maine district
MN-07
MS-04
NY-27
OH-06
TX-27
TX-28
UT-02
VT-AL (I know, but the state has an independent streak and Welch didn't exactly cruise into his first term in 2006, a good Dem year)
WA-06

I'm not saying any will flip, or even be within single digits, I'm just throwing some ideas out there, as I suspect there will be a few surprises on election night given the nature of this election.

Dicks got 58% in 1994. Anyone under the age of 52 in this district has never seen another Democratic nominee for Congress on the ballot. He's going nowhere.

If you want "sleeper" Washington districts then go with WA-09 followed by WA-01. But considering the pitiful fundraising by Smith and Inslee's opponents I don't see how those are going to be competitive either.

Oh, okay. I was looking at the PVIs mainly.

Yeah, I don't see either WA-09 or WA-01 being close, but Washington did vote in a bizarre way in the last Republican wave.

[Vepres]

VT-AL (I know, but the state has an independent streak and Welch didn't exactly cruise into his first term in 2006, a good Dem year)

rofl

Yeah, the guy that the Republicans also nominated to run for re-election in 2008 is certainly one to watch this year.

I really don't follow...